Case to Draft Taylor Hendricks (Trade Down if Possible)

My draft philosophy is different in that I definitely would prefer to take that home run swing (even if it is 5% or whatever) if you can get a top 10-15 guy in the NBA. Those aren't easy to get, and you usually need at least one if you want to win a championship. So it is generally down to Amen or Cam for me, and I lean towards Amen (I think Amen getting a decent shot/mid range game is easier than Cam becoming an elite shooter + decent playmaker basically).

If I felt better about the current core (i.e., at least 1 if not 2 were surefire 10-15 guys), then I might be more willing to move away from those guys and prefer a Hendricks (or Walker, Black, etc.). Hendricks is probably my favorite of that group for all the reasons mentioned, and I agree that he could do very well with Sengun. And yeah, I think there's a very good chance Hendricks (and honestly most of those other guys) end up as high end role players (or better).

 

Our goal isnt/shouldn't be to win asap it's to build a championship core. Rockets have a need at PG and Amen is a PG. Hendricks is better off with a team like Indiana or Orlando that have their established order (and ball handler situation) more or less finished.

 

I like Hendricks and I like trading down . I’m curious if we can find a good trade partner (and not get burned !!!)

im very skeptical of the Thompsons . I bet other nba teams are as well . I think if we trade back to 6-8 … Hendricks might be gone and we would be left with a twin .

How did you feel about Anthony black ?

hendricks is kinda like miller right ? I wonder if we just take him at 4 .( if he’s there )

hendricks and smith is a hell of a forward combo tho going forward

 

This is the way. Hendricks will be a better day 1 player than some of the projects touted in the top 5 and could realistically become one of the best players from this draft. His fundamental skill set is that good, plus he's been working on a face to the basket game to compliment his super efficient 3&D archetype. I would take him at 4 and then laugh at everyone who doubts the move.

 

Is Hendricks the Keegan Murray of this draft? Safe and solid but less upside. Granted, he's not ancient like Murray was so there might be even more room for upside. I'd still rather go for star potential but I see the appeal.

 

I like Hendrix but realistically speaking how much better is he over Tari Eason? Eason can also defend guys 1-5 and he shot 34% from 3 which is only a few pts lower then Hendrix's projected 36%. Ft wise their nos very similar Hendrix shot 78% in college and Eason shot 75% in last season. Normally big athletic wings are rare and become highly coveted like Ziare Williams or Jalen Johnson, but this draft has a metric ton of them in the teens and 20s you see guys like Bilal, GG Jackson, Dariq Whitehead, Jett Howard, Gradey Dick, Leonard Miller, Prosper etc I'd rather Rox just trade for another FRP and take one of these forwards rather than waste a top 4 on Hendrix and Walker who are like 10-20% better than these guys. KJM demanded a trade I'm ok shipping him out for a 20s pick and we just draft Dereck Lively and say Ryan Rupert.

For no 4 it should be who falls between Miller or Amen (well I like Ausar more but w/e). Miller is a 6'9 wing but he shot 80% ft in college and figures to be an elite high volume sniper in the NBA while having solid defense and play making ability. Both Twins can play pg which the Rox sorely lack and offer elite length and athleticism at that spot. Even if the Rox sign Harden or FVV, with their size, length and athleticism the twins can still slide to sf spot with very little issue.

 

100% agree

He could have a Scottie Barnes type rookie season.

 

great analysis! Since Sengun and Tari are my two favorite rockets, you are a perfect 2 for 2 in my book.

I’m supportive of drafting Hendricks but would be great to move back, pick up something good, and still get him. If we can’t move up for Scoot, I’m open minded about what direction the rockets go in (as long as we don’t trade out of this draft completely).

My biggest question/concern: where does Jabari play? I see Hendricks as a switchy 4 who can occasionally play some small ball 5. I see Jabari pretty similarly. I don’t see either as a wing. So how do u reconcile drafting 4’s with early lotto picks in back to back years?

 

Yeah, there is a world where he can could go as high as 5. He has solid but not spectacular length, but he has a natural aptitude for shooting.

The Rockets may be able to move #4 for the Magic picks.

Amen Thompson certainly needs to learn to shoot better, but I don't agree that he necessarily goes against the Rockets advanced analytics. He is very long, a strong defender, he is beyond exceptional in transition, in the paint and is a high level passer. Those are all attributes that are highly valued in more advanced analytics.

Further, Amen Thompson has faced competition as good as Hendricks has. He has played a number of good teams over seas.

Game 1 - Basquet Girona.
They have Marc Gasol and Roko Prkacin. He had 13 pts, 5 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal on 5/8 shooting

Game 2 - CB Cornella.
He had 20 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists on 8/11 shooting

Game 3 - Forca Lleida.
He had 15 points, 2 rebounds and 3 assists on 5/10 shooting

Game 4 - Mega.
Nikola Jokic, Nikola Jovic, Boban, Zubac, Pekovic have all played here. They’ve produced over 15 NBA talents Amen had 18 points, 10 rebounds, 9 assists, 5 steals, 4 blocks on 5/14 shooting.

Game 5- Derby Montenegro.
He had 19 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 steals on 8/11 shooting

Game 6- Adelaide 36ers.
These guys just beat the Suns during preseason. Giddey and Lamelo played in this league. Amen had 17 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals on 6/12 shooting

It’s a small sample size but these teams are much tougher than college teams and Amen played well.

He averaged 17 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.8 APG, 2 SPG, 1.5 BLKs on 63 TS%. He shot 5.8 FTA per game and made them at a 74.4% clip (he’s now at 82% this OTE season)

Who has a 95% chance of busting?

Hendricks is #6-7 on my board, he is very good.

The Rockets DO need a star though.

If the Rockets are determined not to move up for Henderson or to take Thompson, then I am fine with them moving down and takings Hendricks.

He isn't going to get the Rockets far in the playoffs, but he is going to be a good starter in the NBA and will play smart and hard.

He has the potential to be a good shooter from the perimeter at the NBA level. There is an outside chance he becomes good in the middle of the lane.

 

I like Hendricks a lot and I highly value your opinions @Medicine N Music, but for me I am would take the high upside swing with Amen at 4.
Ideally I would trade up for Scoot Henderson, but if that fails then I take whoever is left at 4 of Miller, Henderson and Amen.

Also, the draft pick should not factor into any conversation of being used to "win now." This is all about a lottery ticket for huge upside for the long term rebuild approach.

The methodology used to pick Sengun and Eason at 16/17 the last two years will likely be applied to the pick at 20. But at 4, like with Jalen Green, they are probably going to look for the upside play.

 

I'm all for it.

Rule of the thumb is that big men take longer to develop.....even though their role tends to be the
same since highschool of screen, roll, lob dunk. Defensively must be the issue for delay.

Wiseman, Bagley, Kai Jones, Mark Williams.

Lively and Hendricks will need time, but I can see Taylor Hendricks being a better Jonathan Issac

 

I can see it. What irks me more is the "we dont have a star" type thinking with this draft. I think both Jalen and Sengun are primed to be stars in this league. Need to give them peripheral players to allow them to be the best at what they do and that starts with defenders and shooters preferably both in one package as the case is with Hendricks.

 

Getting the 6 and 11 for 4 would be great. I doubt Orl would do it. Unless Scoot falls to 4, I don't think there's a big gap between 4 and 6.

 

Rockets really did get bent over. (Not to say there won’t be good players beyond the top 3 but that’s their job. )

V.Wembanyama
_________
S.Henderson
B.Miller
_________
Then like 10 guys, depending on your preference (alright, maybe closer to 5 but still)
Am.Thompson
Au.Thompson
C.Whitmore
J.Walker
T.Hendricks
G.Dick
C.Wallace
K.George
A.Black
N.Smith
D.Lively

OK, Cade goes #1, Mobley or Green
OK, take whoever’s left of Banchero, Holmgren and Smith
OK, take…uhhh the Thompson’s? Whitmore? Walker? Hendricks? Dick?

 

So I'm in this group, and while I like our guys...I just can't (yet) count on them being good enough to bring a championship (especially if only 1 of them hits). When talking about championships, you can't just be a star. You basically have to be a top NBA guy of all time, or close to it. Most of the championships of the last ~25 years or so were won by teams with one of these guys (Lebron, Wade, Shaq, Kobe, KG, Duncan, Kawhi, Curry, Giannis, Dirk, etc.). I'm assuming DEN will win this year's championship, and yeah you can throw Jokic in that group IMO. DET is the one big exception to this trend (no single superstar, but a lot of talented stars).

Sengun is probably the guy I like most on our current team, and I'm definitely super optimistic about his future. But if he doesn't develop at least a decent 3pt shot (and possibly a decent mid-range counter), I'm not sure he'll hit that superstar level. And that's just on offense. On defense, he'll need to develop those Jokic/Horford/etc-ish type skills and defensive IQ to really do well. I think he *can* do those things, but that's still asking...a lot...of a player. Realistically, he's just not going to get all the way there.

I can do a similar breakdown of JG (I'm actually legit concerned about his frame the more I think about it), and I assume most of us see Jabari as a secondary or super-elite role player (maybe prime Rashard Lewis or something). Lots of good talent, but not good enough to make me think we should change our focus to complimentary pieces instead of potential top 10-15 NBA type talent.

Could definitely be wrong, and for sure I think guys like Hendricks might end up being one of the better players in this draft (even better than the "high end potential" guys). But ultimately I'm not sure it matters unless this team has a top 10-15 guy, and I'd like to increase those odds as much as possible (even if we're only talking 5-10%).

 

I think people are underestimating the amount of publicity we can have with a GREEN-DICK backcourt.

 

He was trash against this team of former college players. Why was he trash? Because they had him playing off ball mostly on offense and because there were actually bigger and more mature players clogging the paint on defense. When he didn't have the ball in his hands he was a zero on offense because he has zero shooting and he doesn't move either. His entire offensive game is based off of transition and penetration. He has a very nice first step but if the paint is clogged up or if there is a big man defending in the half court he has nothing. He isn't physical like a Westbrook either. He gets bodied and boxed out easily.

He sees the court well enough, but I don't think his handles and passing are anything that make you say wow! for a NBA PG. His athleticism in the open court is stellar and that might as well be the majority of his game. That said his ability to get by on his athleticism leads him to play out of control at times because he can get away with it.

If you just look at the box score you'll see he had a couple steals and blocks and think oh he must have had a nice defensive impact. In reality he was terrible on defense and they hid him on defense the entire game. He was almost never on ball. He also would drift off his man and gamble for steals which was very bad when he didn't get them. Amen is not a good defender or a strong defender.

I haven't actually watched those games against the overseas competition. They are probably on youtube somewhere I'd guess, but this game was really bad for the Thompson twins.


Bottom line is 4-10 is a total crap shoot in my eyes. Maybe these twins learn how to shoot and they pan out as all stars, but that project will take years imo.

 

Well said, the calculations, needs and expectations are different for a player at #4. Also, the Rockets biggest need is a genuine franchise player, which they currently lack.

 

I think the Chauncy era Pistons won a ring without a "star", but I follow along with your point. I dont see that type of talent at 4, and not enough to spurn the further development of the guys who we have already committed to - I've seen them flash plenty to feel hopeful and they are nowhere near "bust" status to be concerned that we dont have that guy yet. Lets field an actual team. Not a squad of hoopers that take turns going to the rim and kicking out. I really hope Udoka realizes that he needs to give these guys a job description and the players need to fill those needs best they can. Shooting and defense are the most glaring areas of need. I'd like to start to plug those holes while the other guys either reward us for the patience or show without a shadow of a doubt that they will not be the driving force to meaningful post season games.