https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/...erested-in-scoot.319836/page-16#post-15155413 1. Clingan | Top 100: No. 3 | Stats: No. 3 | Consensus: 3.7 WARP Clingan had the top stats-based projection heading into last year's NCAA tournament while coming off the bench on the national championship winner behind NBA-bound Adama Sanogo. Clingan's strong productivity in that role has translated into dominance as a sophomore starter, particularly during the NCAA tournament run. The 7-foot-2 Clingan would be just the third draft pick in my database projected to block at least 6% of opponent 2-point attempts and secure at least 20% of available defensive rebounds, joining Mo Bamba and Victor Wembanyama. Because he's moved all the way up to third in the top 100, Clingan now has the top overall projection despite dropping to third in the stats-only version. 2. Sheppard | Top 100: No. 7 | Stats: No. 1 | Consensus: 3.7 WARP Although Sheppard's 52% 3-point shooting (on a robust sample of 144 attempts) is regressed down to a projected 39% as an NBA rookie, that's still the best projection for any player since Doug McDermott -- who had multiple years of college data -- in 2014. Sheppard's projected 2.5 steals per 100 plays, second among players in this year's top 100, is almost as impressive as his shooting. Thanks largely to those key skills, Sheppard has the best stats-only projection in this year's draft. 3. Sarr | Top 100: No. 2 | Stats: No. 4 | Consensus: 3.6 WARP 4. Edey | Top 100: No. 14 | Stats: No. 2 | Consensus: 3.1 WARP 5. Risacher | Top 100: No. 1 | Stats: No. 81 | Consensus: 2.2 WARP 6. Walter | Top 100: No. 12 | Stats: No. 8 | Consensus: 2.2 WARP 7. Dillingham | Top 100: No. 4 | Stats: No. 29 | Consensus: 2.2 WARP 8. Furphy | Top 100: No. 28 | Stats: No. 4 | Consensus: 2.0 WARP 9. Topic | Top 100: No. 5 | Stats: No. 43 | Consensus: 1.9 WARP 10. Castle | Top 100: No. 9 | Stats: No. 27 | Consensus: 1.8 WARP 17. Buzelis | Top 100: No. 6 | Stats: No. 86 | Consensus: 1.4 WARP 19. Holland | Top 100: No. 13 | Stats: No. 56 | Consensus: 1.3 WARP Although Ignite's dismal record left questions about how it translates, Holland was productive in the 29 games he played across the regular season and Showcase, leading Ignite with 20.6 PPG during the regular season. By getting to the free throw line, Holland maintained solid efficiency despite 24% 3-point shooting. He also filled out the box score with strong rates of rebounds, steals and blocks.
One of the funny things, to me, about the Reed debate.... is that when we see him in the first summer league game for literally like a quarter or two... we might be able to immediately have a better clue. like i was not a big Cam fan in the draft - definitely not at 4 - but since he slipped to 20 that's fine, then basically after one summer league game i was like "oh, now i see why i was wrong!". Or look at Alpi - after one summer league QUARTER, i was like ok, this is a REAL, LEGIT NBA player. It doesn't always happen that way. Sometimes meh summer league players become really good. Sometimes good summer league players are ass (Kevin Knox). In either case, there's so much can he do x,y,z against NBA athletes talk when legit one "like real" scrimmage in a workout against our NBA athletes should give the front office and scouts a much better feel.
Where did I treat the data as NBA rookie's? I compared his assist to turnover ratio as a college freshman to the college data of two of the greatest passers in NBA history. You simply ignored those kind of data and just assert that his passing skills are "shockingly overrated" with no objective evidence to support it. You also said the ball would easily slip out of his hand. But he didn't have high turnover rate. Why would it be a concern? My point is, if you don't like him at the #3 pick, that's fine. If you don't believe in his other skills, fine. This is a discussion board. But it's all based on your subjective perception with no objective data to support it. The OP lays out his analysis with supportive evidence. Instead of debunking his analysis, all you do is subjective assertions. It's not going to convince anybody who does not already agree with your subjective opinions.
Greenies are afraid that the org doesn't want him anymore...and they have spent so much time and effort making up stories skewing stats to where they will look like idiots.... DD
would love to package our 2nd rounder and Tate to restock our cabinet of future 2nd rounders; the new currency of the NBA. We simply don’t need to add two more rookies to our team this year.
Depends on how you define "ceiling." There's a difference between best likely outcome and best possible outcome. You are thinking about the latter and many people think about the former. The latter concept goes like this: There's an archetype for this guy that is X (a great player). He has almost all the tools of the archetype. So it is possible that he can become like X. How likely that the kid can become like X is frankly anyone's guess without seeing him play in the NBA yet. Would anybody imagine the college kid Curry's ceiling is the NBA MVP Curry? Not really. Would anybody imagine the college kid Nash... You get the picture.
I want the Rockets to select the player with the highest trade value. It's hard to do that, in this weak draft. Don't give up the farm for Mitchell, Bridges or Trae. That will hurt the team.
The best way to find gems in the draft is to take chances on players whose games are overlooked for whatever reason. Morey had a story about how the analytics really favored Marc Gasol, but he was passed over in the draft because of his man boobs: Sengun was passed over not only for his height, but perceived lack of footspeed and defensive potential. People's obsession over ideal physical measurements and archetypes really blinds them to players' potential. If the size queens here ran the Warriors they never would have drafted Steph Curry over Jordan Hill. Curry, the 6'3" unathletic, skinny, not pure PG with weak defense would not have won them over vs Hill, the 6'10" athletic and lengthy PF that can block shots. And Draymond Green being one of the most versatile defenders at 6'6", capable of playing center in GSW's death lineup hasn't changed people's minds about defensive potential either. Bam Adebayo just made the all-defensive 1st team, his fifth straight all-defensive selection. How tall is he again? I'm old enough to remember when people gushed over Malick Badiane purely based on measurements. Nothing has changed. Drafting Sheppard at #3 is certainly a gamble. No one is a steal at that pick, even in a weak draft. I'm concerned about his man defense. And his low volume shooting, even if highly efficient, makes me wonder how much he'll be able to step it up. But the stats and eye test are there. Acting like he has no potential or merit at all purely based on his height or appearance just reeks of close mindedness to me.
One thing worth revisiting for me... Was Curry really noted as not athletic in his draft profiles? Dude is one of the more athletic guards you'll see. Not about vertical, but hand-eye coordination and twitchyness, stop-and-go speed, change of direction ability, etc. Maybe he developed that post college? Reed has decent athleticism, albeit in seemingly different ways.
Well, nbadraft.net isn't what it used to be, but regarding Curry: https://www.nbadraft.net/players/stephen-curry/ NBA Comparison: Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf Strengths: Made transition from SG to PG this year, but he is more of a combo guard that makes good decisions than a true PG … Best scorer in the NCAA so far at 31.9 PPG … Puts a lot of pressure on defense with his scoring ability and quickness … Looks fearless on the floor and plays under control … Can get any shot he wants and has great shot efficiency … Teams are completely focusing on him defensively, rotating different players at him, so he’s under pressure at all times and still finds a way to hit difficult shots every game … Very confident shooter, especially when the game is on the line (vs. WV struggled the whole game and was not afraid to take over at the end) … Curry can put the ball on the floor and create his own shot from anywhere on the floor and he doesn’t need much space to get his shot off (he will cross-over, trough the legs dribble, behind the back…) … Gets defenders off balance using pump fakes and uses defenders overeagerness to his advantage … Very difficult to guard because he possesses a quick and consistent release on his shot (on the move or under pressure as well) and has NBA range … Moves well without the ball. Great footwork when coming off screens, always ready to shoot … Curry is good at changing speed and direction and handles the ball well … In the open court he can stop on a dime at full speed, with his feet in perfect position (under control) and separate from his defender for open jump-shot … Great vision while driving to the basket and control with the ball … Defensively Curry is crafty and a smart defender with good hands 2.9 STL (not a lockout defender); moves his feet well on defense and stays in front of his defender without gambling much … Solid lateral quickness. Possesses a great will to win. Excellent free-throw shooter .874 … Doesn’t show too much emotion, even keeled. Has been around the game his entire life which gives him an edge knowing what it takes … Weaknesses: Far below NBA standard in regard to explosivenes and athleticism … At 6-2, he’s extremely small for the NBA shooting guard position, and it will likely keep him from being much of a defender at the next level … Although he’s playing point guard this year, he’s not a natural point guard that an NBA team can rely on to run a team … Struggles defensively getting around screens … Can overshoot and rush into shots from time to time (vs. WV) … Hasn’t had to deal with getting benched due to poor performance (shooting) which has allowed him to shoot through any slumps. Will have to adjust to not being a volume shooter which could have an effect on his effectiveness … Doesn’t like when defenses are too physical with him … Not a great finisher around the basket due to his size and physical attributes … Makes some silly mistakes at the PG position. Needs to add some muscles to his upper body, but appears as though he’ll always be skinny … Kinda funny the weaknesses... listening to ppl talk about Reed's perceived weaknesses....
I will say the only "safe" picks in this draft especially this high at 3rd overall is Clingan, Sheppard and Sarr. They have the best floor IMO of this entire draft. So if you want to pick someone that guarantees to pan out and become a contributor on your team, I would pick Clingan or Sheppard (since Sarr is most likely gone at #1.) The rest of the prospects have far too many question marks. I think we are lucky enough to the point where we can draft a lower ceiling player this time around since we already have a lot of high ceiling young players. It's time to get a blue chip prospect.
The guy writing novels about Green is vehemently anti Sheppard is exactly according to script. And yes, if we draft him our future back court will be Sheppard and Amen, so your fears are valid.
Spoiler 1. Atlanta Hawks — Alex Sarr, PF/C, Perth (Australia) | Age: 19.0 The Hawks jumped all way from No. 10 to No. 1 in the draft lottery, a rare stroke of luck that gives the team a chance to select a different caliber of prospect than the one their front office was preparing to pick all season. In an interview at the combine, general manager Landry Fields said he plans to "cast a wide net" in evaluating the Hawks' options, which makes sense in a class with no consensus top prospect. Fields flew to France at the conclusion of the combine to watch potential No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher drop 14 points with 6 rebounds in a playoff game but was not in attendance for Risacher's breakout game two days later when he had a career-high 28 points. At this stage, NBA executives don't have a firm grasp of what the Hawks might do, as word coming out of their front office is they are still at a very early stage of decision-making and have plenty of work to do in gathering information and finding alignment. Many around the league expect the Hawks to select Sarr with the top pick, as there are compelling reasons to consider him the best prospect in this class with his elite physical tools, mobility, defensive versatility, finishing ability and potential as a perimeter shooter. He'd fit in nicely in a frontcourt alongside the likes of Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu, and he should develop into a formidable rim-protector who can also cover ground on the perimeter, which is attractive in minimizing the defensive shortcomings of Trae Young. We'd expect Fields and the Hawks front office to consider other options here as well, including Risacher, Donovan Clingan and trade opportunities. -- Givony 2. Washington Wizards — Zaccharie Risacher, SF, Bourg (France) | Age: 19.1 “Washington was the only team with top-four odds lucky enough to hold serve in the lottery, giving them a chance to take a long-term swing atop the draft. While the Wizards have kept information tight under top executive Michael Winger, some around the league are working under the assumption that Winger and general manager Will Dawkins -- both with roots in the Thunder organization -- will follow Oklahoma City's long-term blueprint, presuming they'll be granted the patience to execute that type of full-scale rebuild. With that in mind, and positional fit less of a concern, at this early juncture, many rival teams are expecting the Wizards to target whichever of Sarr and Risacher falls here, working under the assumption that the Hawks select one of the two at No. 1. …” 3. Houston Rockets (via Nets) — Reed Sheppard, PG/SG, Kentucky | Age: 19.9 The Rockets jumped six spots into the top three in the draft lottery, via a pick owed to them by the Brooklyn Nets from the James Harden trade in 2021. Houston is firmly in win-now mode, coming off a 19-win improvement from the previous season and flush with talented young players, and NBA executives expect the Rockets to weigh several options with this pick, including the possibility of trading back or out in acquiring assets that better fit their timeline of making the playoffs next season with their existing roster. Continuing to add shooting, either through trades or the draft, will likely be a priority after finishing toward the bottom of the league in that category last season. With that in mind, adding a sharpshooter such as Sheppard, who converted over half of his 3-point attempts and proved capable of playing on or off the ball, could be attractive. Sheppard's unselfishness, feel for the game and sharp defensive instincts could make him a strong fit alongside the Rockets' core moving forward. -- Givony 4. San Antonio Spurs — Rob Dillingham, PG, Kentucky | Age: 19.3 “As the only team holding two picks in the top 10, the Spurs have an intriguing opportunity to take multiple big swings as they work to build a competitive roster around Victor Wembanyama. Considering their glaring need in the backcourt, expect San Antonio to target a guard, with players such as Sheppard, Dillingham, Stephon Castle and Nikola Topic profiling as top candidates. In addition to order of preference, the other strategic question San Antonio has to answer is how to make these two picks work in conjunction: It could feasibly target a different position at No. 4, and still wind up with a guard it's comfortable with at No. 8. …” 5. Detroit Pistons — Matas Buzelis, SF/PF, G League Ignite | Age: 19.6 “It's difficult to peg whom the Pistons might pick before knowing who might be making that decision, as Detroit is currently searching for a new president of basketball operations to oversee the front office. With the existing players in place, including somewhat of a logjam in the backcourt and frontcourt, it makes sense to look at small forward options who can connect the roster and bring defensive versatility, perimeter shooting and playmaking. …” 6. Charlotte Hornets — Donovan Clingan, C, UConn | Age: 20.2 “After immensely boosting his stock with dominant play in March, Clingan looks ready to contribute as a long-term defensive anchor, best suited to drop coverage and using his size to wall off angles in the paint. He's been aiming to showcase skill potential and three-point range in workout settings, helping teams envision offensive upside and versatility, and has earned looks at the very top of the draft. Clingan was arguably the top prospect most harmed by how the lottery shook out, as none of the teams picking in the top five as constituted have an express need to select a true center -- even if NBA executives expect him to be firmly in play with Atlanta, Washington and Houston. …” 7. Portland Trail Blazers — Nikola Topic, PG, Mega MIS (Adriatic League) | Age: 18.7 “The status of Topic's knee will play a big part in determining how high he ends up being selected -- something we'll learn more about following the NBA Global Camp in Treviso in two weeks, where he's expected to undergo a battery of physical examinations. He missed a big chunk of the season with a ligament strain he suffered in early January and then again reinjured the same knee, which ruled him out of the Adriatic league Finals. The Trail Blazers drafted what they hope is their point guard of the future last year in Scoot Henderson and have two talented backcourt players in the fold already in Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons. Topic's size, playmaking ability, feel for the game and improving perimeter shooting should allow him to play in a variety of lineup configurations, but Portland will also likely look at pure wing prospects in addition to frontcourt players who may fill a more immediate need.” 8. San Antonio Spurs — Tidjane Salaun, PF, Cholet (France) | Age: 18.7 9. Memphis Grizzlies — Dalton Knecht, SF, Tennessee | Age: 23.0 10. Utah Jazz — Stephon Castle, PG/SG, UConn | Age: 19.5 “The versatile role Castle supplies, coupled with room to grow offensively, puts him in play all over the mid-to-late lottery -- but it's worth noting that he appears to be marketing himself to teams as a point guard. Accordingly, Castle is being selective with where he works out, targeting teams that have a need for a lead ball handler. …” 11. Chicago Bulls — Ron Holland, SF, G League Ignite | Age: 18.8 12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Rockets) — Cody Williams, SG/SF, Colorado | Age: 19.4 “… Once viewed as a potential candidate near the top of the draft, Williams' stock appears to have slipped into this range; at the moment, teams view him as a more likely candidate to come off the board in the late lottery on down than in the top 10. His long-term upside as an oversized, two-way wing contributor does fit the Thunder's typical mold, if they swing for upside.“ 13. Sacramento Kings — Ja'Kobe Walter, SG/SF, Baylor | Age: 19.7 14. Portland Trail Blazers (via Warriors) — Zach Edey, C, Purdue | Age: 22.0
Spoiler 15. Miami Heat — Jared McCain, PG, Duke | Age: 20.2 16. Philadelphia 76ers — Devin Carter, PG/SG, Providence | Age: 22.1 17. Los Angeles Lakers* — Tristan Da Silva, SF/PF, Colorado | Age: 22.1 “The Lakers are still waiting to hear about New Orleans' plans, as it has until June 1 to decide whether to take this pick or defer it to 2025. …” 18. Orlando Magic — Johnny Furphy, SG/SF, Kansas | Age: 19.4 19. Toronto Raptors (via Pacers) — Kyshawn George, SG/SF, Miami | Age: 20.4 20. Cleveland Cavaliers — Carlton Carrington, PG/SG, Pittsburgh | Age: 18.8 “Teams view the 18-year-old Carrington as one of this draft's true upside swings, with positional size (measuring just under 6-foot-4 barefoot) and flashing the talent as a scorer, playmaker and defender to deliver a strong return outside the lottery. …” 21. New Orleans Pelicans (via Bucks) — Isaiah Collier, PG, USC | Age: 19.6 “This would be a big slide for Collier, who slated 11th in our previous mock and was at one point considered a candidate at No. 1. With few teams in the 12-20 range in the market for a lead guard with questionable shooting ability, Collier has a wide range due to the amount of playmaking usage he'll likely need to reach his full potential and the fact that most of the teams picking outside the top 10 are in win-now mode. …” 22. Phoenix Suns — Kyle Filipowski, PF/C, Duke | Age: 20.5 “ Expect the Suns to look for a ready-made contributor at this spot, with Filipowski's size and skill level adding a potentially useful dimension to their frontcourt. Phoenix also has a glaring need for a true point guard, which is something it will likely consider here as well.” 23. Milwaukee Bucks (via Pelicans) — Yves Missi, C, Baylor | Age: 20.0 24. New York Knicks (via Mavericks) — Tyler Smith, SF/PF, G League Ignite | Age: 19.5 25. New York Knicks — Kel'el Ware, C, Indiana | Age: 20.0 “It's unclear at this stage whether the Knicks will make both these picks or try to leverage them into improving the roster via other means, but this is an opportunity to shore up their depth as they try to sustain this season's success into the future. …” 26. Washington Wizards (via Clippers) — Bobi Klintman, SF/PF, Cairns (Australia) | Age: 21.2 27. Minnesota Timberwolves — Baylor Scheierman, SG/SF, Creighton | Age: 23.6 28. Denver Nuggets — Tyler Kolek, PG, Marquette | Age: 23.1 “Kolek opted not to play at the combine, feeling secure in his stock as a first-round pick, and has suitors in the 20s as a potential plug-and-play guard. …” 29. Utah Jazz (via Thunder) — Justin Edwards, SG/SF, Kentucky | Age: 20.4 30. Boston Celtics — Kevin McCullar, SF, Kansas | Age: 23.1 ROUND 2 31. Toronto Raptors (via Pistons) — Ryan Dunn, SF, Virginia | Age: 21.3 32. Utah Jazz (via Wizards) — Jaylon Tyson, SG/SF, California | Age: 21.4 33. Milwaukee Bucks (via Trail Blazers) — Terrence Shannon Jr., SG/SF, Illinois | Age: 23.8 34. Portland Trail Blazers (via Hornets) — A.J. Johnson, SG, Illawarra (Australia) | Age: 19.4 35. San Antonio Spurs — Cam Christie, SG, Minnesota | Age: 18.8 36. Indiana Pacers (via Raptors) — Alex Karaban, PF, UConn | Age: 21.5 37. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Grizzlies) — Juan Nunez, PG, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany) | Age: 19.9 38. New York Knicks (via Jazz) — Ulrich Chomche, C, NBA Academy Showcase (Africa) | Age: 18.3 39. Memphis Grizzlies (via Nets) — Adem Bona, C, UCLA | Age: 21.1 40. Portland Trail Blazers (via Hawks) — Jonathan Mogbo, C, San Francisco | Age: 22.5 41. Philadelphia 76ers (via Bulls) — Nikola Djurisic, SG/SF, Mega MIS (Adriatic League) | Age: 20.2 42. Charlotte Hornets (via Rockets) — Pelle Larsson, SG, Arizona | Age: 23.2 43. Miami Heat — Pacome Dadiet, SG/SF, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany) | Age: 18.8 44. Houston Rockets (via Warriors) — Ajay Mitchell, PG, UC Santa Barbara | Age: 21.9 45. Sacramento Kings — KJ Simpson, PG, Colorado | Age: 21.7 46. LA Clippers (via Pacers) — Harrison Ingram, SF/PF, North Carolina | Age: 21.4 47. Orlando Magic — Keshad Johnson, PF, Arizona | Age: 22.9 48. San Antonio Spurs (via Lakers) — Melvin Ajinca, SG/SF, Saint Quentin (France) | Age: 19.8 49. Indiana Pacers (via Cavaliers) — Dillon Jones, SF/PF, Weber State | Age: 22.5 50. Indiana Pacers (via Pelicans) — DaRon Holmes II, PF/C, Dayton | Age: 21.7 51. Washington Wizards (via Suns) — Payton Sandfort, SF, Iowa | Age: 21.8 52. Golden State Warriors (via Bucks) — Izan Almansa, PF/C, G League Ignite | Age: 18.8 53. Detroit Pistons (via Knicks) — Jamal Shead, PG, Houston | Age: 21.8 54. Boston Celtics (via Mavericks) — Bronny James, PG/SG, USC | Age: 19.6 55. Los Angeles Lakers (via Clippers) — Hunter Sallis, SG, Wake Forest | Age: 21.1 56. Denver Nuggets (via Timberwolves) — Jalen Bridges, SF, Baylor | Age: 23.0 57. Memphis Grizzlies (via Thunder) — Ariel Hukporti, C, Melbourne (Australia) | Age: 22.1 58. Dallas Mavericks (via Celtics) — Isaac Jones, PF/C, Washington State | Age: 23.8
Yeah, I generally define ceiling as the best likely outcome because I think that's just so much more useful--and of course that's different for different guys. I'm generally pretty careful to use the words "best case" when I'm talking about something that's an extremely low percentage--I think I've talked about that for Amen when comparing him to guys like D-Wade or Jimmy Butler. It's probably something like a 1% or 2% outcome he gets there and I'm trying to implicitly acknowledge that with my word choice. Amen's realistic ceiling is probably closer to someone like Iguodala. I guess it is kind of semantics and arguing about word choice, but I think it's important in these discussions to be on the same page in what we're referring to, so I'd say it's worth getting into.
Decent recap below-- the biggest difference between Curry and projecting Reed was the usage (and level of competition). Reed played with another lotto pick and multiple 5* recruits and frankly wasn't asked to "go get buckets" like Curry did. I think it's a legit question whether he could, but the pre-draft scouting on defense at least is awfully similar. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba...scouting-report-2009/ncszup8lemfayrwjwunyl9ok I can't believe we're comparing him to an all-time great, but there is a blue print there.
