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Case to Draft Reed Sheppard at #3

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Medicine N Music, May 20, 2024.

  1. Medicine N Music

    Medicine N Music Contributing Member
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    I get it. Reed Sheppard is short, has below average wingspan, and possible average/poor lateral movement. He looks like he should be in a Gap commercial. I’ve also heard from the “Pick BPA” crowd that doesn’t care about fit.

    Well, guess what? Reed Sheppard IS the BPA if he’s available at #3 and he has a much higher ceiling than what most fans think. He is also an ideal fit and synergistic with Sengun/Amen due to his ability to stretch the floor.

    It is extremely rare to find a player that shoots 40% from 3 AND can play above average defense. Most 3/D players are primary defenders who are average 3 point shooters (OG, Eason, Caruso, Tucker, Ariza, etc).

    Remember, Kirk Hinrich was the #7 pick and JJ Reddick was the #11 pick (and he was no where the defender Reed is). Reed would be a good mid lottery pick in any draft, but since this draft lacks top blue chip prospects (and every prospect has major weaknesses), he will likely go higher than mid lottery. If Reed Sheppard plays above average defense and shoots 40% from 3 in his prime (basically his projection), he is worth the #3 pick in this draft.

    Comparisons
    Floor - Kirk Hinrich
    Median - Between Jazz/Wolves version of Mike Conley and Better shooting FVV
    Ceiling - Better shooting Kyle Lowry

    Strengths
    • Elite shooter
    • Elite defender at the college level
    • Extremely high basketball IQ
    • Strong hands and high vertical
    • Ideal fit with our current players
    • High floor and medium/high ceiling (Kyle Lowry was a 6X all-star)
    • Lack of comparison at the college level suggests possible unicorn status
    Random Statistical Facts
    • No player in NCAA history posted 45% 3P, 4% STL%, 2% BLK%, with at least 17% USG
    • Sheppard is at 52.1% 3P, 4.6% STL%, 2.5% BLK%, and 18% USG
    • Only freshman guards with BPM > 10, STL% > 3, 3P% > 40, APG > 3 = Kyrie Irving and Reed Sheppard
    Credit - from poster “Lucky_Roof_8733” on Reddit

    Weaknesses
    • May be a combo guard with questionable ability to handle PG position
    • Average athletic ability and lateral movement may make it difficult to be a good defender at the NBA level
    • Short height and poor wingspan
    Ability to be a PG
    • Videos/watching games show his ability to initiate offense, make correct reads, and make crisp passes
    • Generated 4.5 assists/game off bench playing 28.9 min/game w/ USG at only 18%
    • For comparison: Rajan Rondo had 18.7% usage as a freshman at Kentucky and only averaged 3.5 assists/game (although in slightly less minutes)
    • De’Aaron Fox averaged 4.6 assists/game in slightly more minutes (similar assist rate per 100 possessions), but Fox had a 27.5% usage rate
    Less athletic and defense may not transfer
    • Major bias for white/lighter complexion players who don’t look the part (see Sengun)
    • Tested above average at the combine (max vert and 3 quarter sprint elite; others above average)
    • Every player may have “poor/average lateral movement” guarding certain players
    • Video below shows his ability to stay in front of many guards
    Combine
    • Lane agility (10.96) - 63.8th percentile
    • Shuttle run (3.03) - 51.7th percentile
    • 3 quarter sprint (3.08) - 88.9th percentile
    • Standing vert (32.5) - 82.6th percentile
    • Max vert (42.0) - 96th percentile
    Credit: https://njk11.pythonanywhere.com/

    Short height and wingspan
    • This is obviously a shortcoming, but here is a list of players with similar measurements (at combine/draft time).
    • Obviously some players are not similar in style of play. This is just to show short players can still be successful.
    Chris Paul - 6’0 w/ 6’4 wingspan
    FVV - 6’0 w/ 6’2 wingspan
    Jalen Brunson - 6’1 w/ 6’4 wingspan
    JJ Reddick - 6’4 w/ 6’3.25 wingspan
    Kyle Lowry - 6’0 w/ 6’3 wingspan
    Kyrie Irving - 6’1.75 w/ 6’4 wingspan
    Seth Curry - 6’1 w/ 6’4 wingspan

    Summary
    • Elite shooter and high IQ player, who is the ideal fit on our team.
    • Potential to be an elite team defender and above average point of attack defender
    • Weaknesses include short height/poor wingspan, defense not translating at NBA level (due to possible average/poor lateral movement), and questionable ability to play PG position full time (although limited stats project otherwise)
    • Despite some potential weaknesses, Reed Sheppard is a (miniature) unicorn that is synergistic with a Sengun/Amen led team and can fit in with an additional star in the future.
    Please watch the video below, especially the defense portion (starts at 17:23).
     
  2. studogg

    studogg Contributing Member

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    I’ve really been more of a risarcher guy - but you had me at a post by medicine n music on talent evaluation. Your track record speaks for itself.
     
  3. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  4. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

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    Who is your runner up pick Greg, assuming Sarr is gone.
     
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  5. Francis3422

    Francis3422 Member

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  6. yixiixiy

    yixiixiy Member

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    The man of the people has spoken.

    #teamreed

     
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  7. PhiSlammaJamma

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    You had me at he's white.
     
  8. Russjr2

    Russjr2 Contributing Member

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    Looks like a guy that will really compete on both ends. May not have the ideal 'measurements', but looks to have NBA level shooting and tools to be an above avg defender at the PG position. The more I see of him I like him. I know it seems high at #3, but in a weak draft it happens. Maybe we trade down a little bit with someone to get him at a 'better' spot and pick up another pick or vet player to fill a need. Will be a interesting next month prior to the draft..
     
    #8 Russjr2, May 20, 2024
    Last edited: May 20, 2024
  9. Rocketeer

    Rocketeer Contributing Member

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    In a year where there are no clear cut potential "perennial all stars" in the lottery, this is the year that you draft for needs and shooting is at the top of the list for the Rockets. No matter what plans the Rockets have with their young core, Sheppard should be the pick... whether he starts or comes off the bench, we need his shooting.
     
  10. Dobbizzle

    Dobbizzle Member

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    I already wanted Sheppard, but now I'm going to be furious if we don't draft him after you've posted.
     
  11. napalm06

    napalm06 Huge Flopping Fan

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    Reported for seeing (lack of) color
     
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  12. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    Is he white or bright?
     
  13. cheke64

    cheke64 Member

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  14. TheBeastSystem

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    defensive disruptor period
     
  15. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    I still hesitate on getting excited about Sheppard, as The NBA is moving away from shorter players. All the ones you listed are older. The only way I'd consider a player as small as him is if you believe the PG chops are undeniably NBA-worthy. From what he's shown thus far, I don't think Reed is a pure PG.

    When you combine that with our team's trajectory where we really don't have time to be grooming a player to one day be starting quality by his second contract, that dissuades me even further from considering a PG, no matter how big or small he is. Rookie PG's all have significant growing pains and almost never provide positive value. Just look at Scoot last year.

    Compare that to Klingan, who I think can be even better than Lively was this year. Those types undoubtedly contribute to winning, and early on. Sure, we have Steven Adams to fill the back-up rim rolling big role this year, but he's an expiring, and with big men you can never count on health. To beat Jokic we'll need a rotation like MIN has with KAT, Gobert, and Naz Reid. Hell, to beat Minnesota or OKC we'll need at least 3 serviceable centers as well.
     
    #15 Spacemoth, May 20, 2024
    Last edited: May 20, 2024
  16. Snow Villiers

    Snow Villiers Member

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    Reed will be better than Jalen Green from day 1!
     
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  17. Sooner423

    Sooner423 Contributing Member

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    DD
     
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  18. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Contributing Member

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    I’ve been waiting for MNM’s annual draft take. Count me all in on Reed. There simply aren’t any other prospects that are discernibly better. So why not take the unicorn that also happens to fit well with our core?
     
  19. Dobbizzle

    Dobbizzle Member

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    Jalen Green has the 3rd most 40pt games of players under the age of 21. Put down the crack pipe, and stop piling ridiculous expectations on Sheppard before his career even starts. He's not even remotely in the same tier of prospects.
     
  20. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    Reed Sheppard is the white version of JJ Redick

    Or possibly Steve Nash
     
    madbomber and wlekfjv923n like this.

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