Even if Keenum proves to be good this year, I think you draft a top-tier QB in the first round if they are available. Because there are so many, you're going to get incredible QB value this year. The 4th QB taken might be at the 15th or 20th pick, but could be a top 5-10 pick if they had come out last year or next year. So if Keenum continues to do well, you've got a great asset to trade. If he doesn't, you have a potential franchise QB right there to replace him and don't have to spend the next few years trying to figure out how to get one without a top 5 pick.
The other thing to consider is that the Kubiak system often makes QBs look better than they really are outside of the system, as we saw in Denver with guys like Greise and Plummer. So if you're replacing the coach in the offseason, then whatever Keenum does this year has to be considered in that context. He was undrafted for a reason, and while we hope he can be really good, I don't think I'd bet the franchise on it.
Every single Giant fan in New York would deal Eli for Andrew Luck (again, in this fantasy, a Luck-like prospect emerges). He's on pace to win 2 games and throw 34 INTs. He's old, expensive and, yeah... he's a big reason their season is imploding. DM, I hear ya. But I think a lot more of Kubiak than I do Gilbride, and I think giving him a running back like Foster would make a tremendous difference. There's a lot more structure to what Kubiak does than what Gilbride does (who feels like a "F it, I'm going deep" kind of guy; Buddy Ryan punched him for a reason).
Taken in to context? Keenum ran the pistol/shotgun 90% of the time, and will probably do the same from here on out. Neither of which is a staple in "Kubiak's offense". Sorry, I am not buying that.
I've long ago adopted a slightly different perspective than most when it comes to quantifying expectations - "Super Bowl contender" doesn't really mean anything to me. At no time last year would I have labeled the Ravens a "Super Bowl contender." They looked like playoff fodder to me. But they got healthy, their QB got hot, they had a few balls bounce their way (or, more specifically, a few players jump prematurely), they had some unexpected guys step up... My standard is "playoff contender" - once the postseason starts... I mean, we've seen it time and time again - for decades: the best team doesn't always win (ask Peyton Manning). And I absolutely think the Texans are competent QB play away from being a "playoff contender."
If Keenum starts the rest of the season and plays well, I would much rather use our 1st pick to address a different position of need like LB or RT. NFL trades are so rare these days, and I'd rather start fresh than depend on crafting one. Assuming we don't make the playoffs, there's no guarantee Kubiak is even around next year. Besides, like someone else said, Keenum wasn't exactly running the same plays Kubiak ran when Schaub was starting.
Ok but this is not fantasy and there will be no Andrew Luck prospect in this draft. Luck was considered the consensus number one pick during his junior year. He was the highest touted QB to come out of the draft since Peyton Manning. There is no chance that such a QB will emerge in the next 5 months. Eli is 32 which most would consider a pocket QB’s prime. I don’t agree with your assessment on Eli. Their last super bowl team was garbage on defense and manning carried that team all year long. The giants problems include: Poor offensive line, no run game, weak LB & DL play. QB is at the bottom of their list of problems. I do agree that Eli is having a bad season but I have no doubt that when some of the other issues on the offense are addressed he’ll return to form.
Good points. The Ravens last year and the Giants in previous seasons did not appear to me to be Super Bowl teams...but they played in and won them regardless.
Also, Eli has been sacked 18 times this year. Last year, he was only sacked 19 times during the entire season. Their O-line has been a big problem.
That's the thing though, supposedly Kubiak limits the risk of plays, to the ability of the QB. He's putting them in position where they would do best. Schuab with check downs and safe throws, Keenum in the shotgun.
I think the problem you run into is that if your RT or LB isn't great, you can work around it - you can get pretty good ones in free agency or whatnot. If Keenum flops with a new coach, you're back at square one and finding a good QB is much harder than finding another RT or LB.
In theory, your QB should be good enough to run a varierty of systems. If Keenum is specifically successful *only* in this one paticular system, then he's not a viable, long term asset. Arian Foster is your standard in that regard. There's no question he's a perfect ZBS back - but I think it's also obvious he's a really good back, period, and would thrive in any system.
Kubiak has a long history of making mediocre QBs look pretty decent going back to his time at Denver. His system makes reads very simple and easy, and his play-action creates wide open receivers. It's why Matt Schaub never really was throwing into tight coverage or anything like that. The system creates easy throws. While he's a local hero, let's not forget that Keenum is an undrafted guy who wasn't picked up by anyone all last year while sitting on the practice squad.
kubiaks system does indeed make mediocre qbs look fantastic coughSCHAUBcough, when youre running the bootleg and the entire defense bites on the stretch and your qb can punt the football to a streaking wide open TE i agree.... still some of the biggest plays keenum made were when the play broke down. he has done nothing but show the ability to drop the football in the receivers lap. going for the kill on 3rd and short showed some confidence in his own ability, he probably should have had ATLEAST a 2nd TD (i think the throw could have been better, back shoulder and hopkins pulls it in). the fluidty and poise he played with leads me to believe that his skill set allowed him to look like a vet out there. all things considered, no run game, missing owen, #1 defense he played well. qb friendly system be damned, the situation could have made most crumble..
I think the Texans will go DE in the 1st. Antonio is gone next year and his replacement (Montgomery) is already kaput. After that, I think we're looking at LB and OG. LB especially if Cushing has problems in recovery or if Reed/Mercilus continue to suck. OG is a need because Wade Smith is up for a new contract and we might not be able to afford him. Of course RB, but it's very un-Kubiak to use high picks on them. And don't look now, but we're also about to need another safety, because Ed Reed will be cut (rightly so) and Manning probably won't be back after 2015. You can also expect more TE picks since Daniels is probably cut at the end of this year, too. In other words: DE > LB/OG > S/DB > RB/TE is probably how the pick priority ladder looks in Smithiak's head right now. Of course, all of that goes to hell in a handbag if Keenum stinks it up. Kirk Cousins, man. Kirk Cousins.
We can speculate about players all we want but the simple fact is we got kubiak and that trumps everything. I cant help but think if we would have got peyton manning and when kubiak tried to run his pathetic offense, peyton would have been like "boy please take that lame crap somewhere else i got this, go get me a water!"
