Nook, agreed with most of your takes, but have to probably disagree slightly with these points. Okur and Turkoglu are rotational players, so you may be selling Sengun short. If you think he can be a good 6-10th pick in a loaded draft, you can't be happy with Okur or Turkoglu as the outcome. Sengun has potential to be a Marc Gasol level impact player. Agreed that Jokic is not likely at all, as Jokic has potential to be a top 50-75 player of all time. Jokic also has more weight/height/wingspan, and is one of the best passers ever for a big, so not really a fair target. Defensively, Sengun has potential to be elite. I can't disagree more with the statement that he may "only be adequate". Through the first 4 games, his defensive rating is 95 (for those that don't know the lower the better). The league leader last year was Gobert at 100.6. Basically he is KILLING IT defensively as a rookie, with horrible defenders on the court at all times other than himself and Tate. Yes sample size is small, but his defensive IQ is one of the highest ever I've seen as a rookie. If Marc Gasol can be an impact defender, there is no question Sengun will be at minimum above average. His steals rate is off the charts for a center.
People forget that Sengun is the fifth youngest player in the NBA, and the youngest in any starting rotation. He doesn't have AK-47's insane wingspan but his defensive instincts and average length (7'1" Wingspan at 6'9") will keep him around. The Jokic and Doncic comparisons are unfounded, but don't be surprised if he ends up the best NBA player from Turkey.
I think it's remarkable how many fouls he draws at the rim. He really knows how to use his body and the hoop to shield the defender forcing them to commit contact to stop a easy layup.
I mean, if we're going for a what is their ultimate upside, even if very unlikely, Alpi doesn't have to be exactly like Jokic to be Jokic level good. I mean an MVP seems crazy high stretch... but, you never know. In Alpi's world it would be more of a PF version is all. The thing really holding him back would be ballhandling at that point i guess. That's where Jokic excels. I mean sure Jokis is a much better shooter now, too, but Alpi can get there. Not sure he'll ever be there ballhandling wise to play point effectively from on baseline to the other... I think the better comp is Sabonis... and one might say hey Sabonis is great, but he's clearly not an MVP. Well... yeah, he's NOT an MVP sure. But he's still underrated imo. Why.. because the Pacers are just so so. I dont think they're constructed amazingly. You'd like Sabonis to be more impactful from a winning perspective... but the guy is 6th on their team in usage right now... despite basically having their best ORtg and DRtg, a 70.5% TS%, dominant stats, etc. If the Pacers were better, Sabonis would be thought of higher but as is he's a VERY solid consistent all-star. How can Alpi separate himself from Sabonis and get closer to Jokic's level? Well for one, while Sabonis is pretty solid defensively, I think you would agree Alpi's defensive upside potential is decently higher than Sabonis'. And higher than Jokic's for sure. So that's one way to close the gap. For two, while Sabonis is probably the second best big man passer in the league, it's worth noting Sabonis was at 2.5, 4.2 and 5.6 assists per 100 his first three years in the league. Jokic was at 5.5, 8.6, 9.3. Alpi so far is at 6 assists per 100. SO FAR, without question, his passing is more on Jokic's level than Sabonis'. Conversely, Alpi is definitely struggling with his shot (inside, outside, etc.), turnovers, and will struggle still with TRUE big, physical bigs as well as guards that can get by him on the perimeter when he's not properly positioned with his feet. This is a very long way of saying... maybe he CAN win an MVP one day lol. But MVP or not, as is the case with any youngin with upside, the true test will be what happens in the offseason, and how much they grow and improve. Alpi's age can't be overlooked... he's effectively a year younger than Jokic or Sabonis were their first year. We'd all love Green and Alpi to come in and immediately be efficient stat stuffing NBA players. Truth of the matters is even KD kind of sucked his first year... i mean he scored a lot of points, but was inefficient as crap and didn't do much else. Kobe sucked his first year. Giannis sucked his first year. KG wasn't that good his first year. Etc. Which is partly why Lebron and Luka are almost as rare as they come. Its enormously rare for a true HS->NBA player to come in and be that great, much less the kids even one year older with 1 or two years of college under their belt. Alpi was born 7/25/02. Which puts him 6 months younger than Jalen who was born 2/9/02... who himself is a full 8 months younger than someone like Evan Mobley who was born 6/18/01. That's right, Alpi is 13 months younger than Evan Mobley. FYI, Cade, Barnes, Suggs were also all summerish 2001 birthdays. Our guys are just SUPER young. They need to physically mature more and then see how they improve.
really, ball handling? i must watch jokic more carefully then, i think alpi is already a great ballhandler for a big, I am worried more about the jumper...
Sengun has great ball handling for a 19 year old forward/big, but Jokic has LeBron/Ben Simmons court vision. Alperen’s jumper will come in time but he’s a secondary playmaker, not a top of the line point forward.
i think shooting is more learnable and given Alpi’s FT ability and the way his shot looks he can become an efficient shooter. Jokic… yes the dude is so often their PG effectively. Either full up court or in their half court sets. absolutely he’s not out there Steph Curry like but he has a handle that he keeps tight to his body then he knows how to use his body to prevent guards from coming in and stealing it, etc. we’re not talking crossovers or whatnot. whereas with Alpi while he has the vision and isn’t useless for sure as a dribbler you can already tell there’s a bit of a tendency or the ball to get away from him a little bit. It’s little things like that that he can watch tape and improve on and would be the difference between a guy who gets the ball in the post and makes a decent pass or on the wing and makes a decent pass vs a guy that can grab a board and push it or lead the half court offense.
Steal Percentage is an estimate of the percentage of opponent possessions that end with a steal by the player while he was on the floor. Not the % of a team’s steals, the % of the opponent’s possessions that end up in a steal for that player. Basically if he is #1 in this stat, which he currently is, he would lead the league in steals if he got the minutes (of course it won’t translate 1:1, but damn good)
