The best recent comp i can think of for him is Vernon Carey, which is why i think he might be there in the 20s. When it comes right down to it, for all of his impressive post skill nobody is going to want to bet big on a 6'9" center that projects to have defensive issues out of the gate. Probably would have been a top 5 pick in the mid 90's, but times change.
I think that will be a big mistake. Sengun will be moving to the fastest and biggest league in the world. The guys will create a lot of mismatches for him. Scoring against strong, big and quick players won't be easy for him.
May not be a switch defender but he is disruptive in drop coverage and zone. More athletic than people realize but his IQ is what makes up for lack of lateral agility.
This is not a good comp. Carey was a second round pick and is worse on both offense and defense. Carey has worse post moves, worse ability to draw fouls, worse shooting, worse passing, worse IQ, worse lateral movement, worse timing, worse motor, and older - I think of this as comparing Anthony Randolph to Chris Bosh because they are similar in size/style. No one projected Carey to be a top 10 pick. The better comparison is Sabonis, who many think is his floor. Carey played above average in the NCAA, Sengun was the MVP of a top professional league with grown men.
Maybe you need to remember exactly how dominant Carey was at Duke. Carey was voted "Freshman of the Year" by the AP writers, was a 5 star recruit (#5 ovrrall in his class) and was second team All-American which definetely is ≠ the dismissive "above average" tag you put on him. Vernon Carey at Duke was every bit the superstar at Duke that Senguin is in the Turkish league. While you are right that nobody projected Carey in the top ten, now that people have had a chance to watch film, nobody projects Seguin in the top ten either - havent seen anybody legitimate describe him as "top ten" in a month or more. That was all classic "backup QB syndrome" where people fill in blank spaces on unknowns with positive projections. Carey was projected to go in that 15-25 range that people are pretty universally projecting on Senguin, now. Also, Carey is about 5 months older than Senguin. Given that he was drafted a year previously, he was actually about half a year younger than Senguin at the same point in the process, so that claim is proven wrong by facts.
Looking more into it I think Spurs nab him at their spot no questions asked. They are probably gonna rebuild and what better target at 12 than 18 yr old MVP in a grown men's league? Spurs arent trying to make the playoffs anymore and they lack a foundational piece Sengun wouldnt last past them. Until the Rox somehow obtain a top 10 there's no need to stress where he would fall cuz the Rox wont be able to get him.
I'm not a huge fan of Aaron Gordon, but I disagree that Johnson has better ball handling, passing, and shooting. I think Johnson's jumpshot is fundamentally flawed. Even when wide open or at the free throw line he has a hitch and the touch looks bad, as shown in the video below. Gordon is no sharpshooter but his jumper is smoother. I also don't see advanced ballhandling for Johnson. On the fastbreak he looks capable but lots of people do. In the halfcourt with a defender in front of him he is sloppy. He has a 20.6 TO% which Gordon has never come close to in his entire career. Johnson has potential as a strong finisher and versatile defender but I'd bet Gordon is better all around.
1) Being a second team all American in the NCAA is not the same thing as being the MVP of a top euro professional league. 2) Let’s not argue about small points. What is Carey better at? I literally posted 10 important facets on both offense and defense that Sengun is better at. Carey is closer to Okafor than Sengun/Sabonis.
I think this is almost universal for those that dislike Sengun. However, Doncic and Jokic have both shown that you don’t need to be the fastest or most athletic to be a great player in the NBA. When you have elite skills, especially on offense and can exploit mismatches, and have high IQ/motor on defense, it may actually work out even if you’re not as athletically gifted
You are also comparing current AG to current Jalen Johnson. AG has been in the NBA for 6 seasons. Like AG, Jalen Johnson is at his best as playmaker in rip and run situations. But AG, moreso than JJ, falls in love with mid range. And the high TO is not because of poor vision but moreso because of trying to make the flashy pass. Johnson actually has the better court vision and makes the right read, but his teammates either fumble pass or do not move to the open spot. Low 3PA but still shooting 44%, that's a positive in my book. And defensively, Johnson is the more dynamic disruptor, averaging more steals, deflections and blocks than AG. AG makes fewer mistakes and has higher IQ. I agree that AG is currently the better player but I see more upside with Jalen Johnson. And this is coming from AG's biggest fan on CF.
Vernon Carey dominated college kids with his size and strength(watch any tape, he just went through kids with brute force), which is not transferable to the nba which is bigger and stronger. Sengun dominated grown men with strength and SKILL, in a league that has a reputation of being more physical than the NBA(i don't mean more athletic). That is transferable to the nba.
I keep hearing about the Sabonis comp and that is a big compliment to Sengun, but at the same age he is better in literally every, single, way compared to Sabonis at Gonzaga.
I started a new thread, missed this one. Was going to put a comp of Sabonis in it, but didn't for fear of people being all up in arms. Came here and was validated. I see it for sure. I think this kid can play. He's got a little bit of bust potential because of his size shortcomings. I don't think he is a center in the NBA, but he's got star potential.
