Carr vs this year's college QBs.......

I HATE THIS NOT BEING ABLE TO EDIT

His numbers were very repectable his sophmore year. Having a breakout year in your Junior season does that make him any less of a pro prospect than the guy who had the same good stats 2 years in a row. For some players, it takes longer to develop their talents. That has no bearing on who will be the better NFL player, especially when we're talking about Sophmore to Junior.

Im glad Roy is coming back despite being a lock for a Top 10 pick. Speaks well of his character to try improve and be the best. Hopefully this will increase his draft status the same way it helped Quentin Jammer.

Well, when youre picked in the middle or late first round, there have been more players picked than just the franchise QB. At least one player is picked at almost every position by the time the 16-20 picks roll around. Sometimes, 3 or 4 of the same position has been taken, the majority of the time it's not a WR.

I have never said a player's draft position determines how good a player will become. My issue is that the risk is not worth it considering the alternatives.

Whether Charlie Rogers gets picked 1 or 15, he will still be the exact same player. However, if a team picks him at 15, they obviously received a bigger benefit taking him later than earlier. Obviously Rogers wont be there at 15. However, a receiver who is rated slightly lower will be. Why would you take the slightly lower ranked player over the higher ranked player? My rationale is that ratings are often wrong about WR's... just like they were wrong when Keyshawn Johnson was picked over Marvin Harrison. Will they be wrong about Rogers? maybe, maybe not. However, it's too early to assume that trading down will be a mistake. The real issue is what they can get for trading down.

Obviously, if they got jack squat, you would always take the higher ranked player since you do not have the luxury of hindsight. However, I don't think a late 2nd rounder or early 3rd rounder is jack squat. It can be hit or miss depending on your personel. I think the Texans have fairly good scouts and personel who could leverage this pick more succesfully than say a Cincinnati organization.

Yes I know we have multiple picks already. However, I challenge anybody who would not love to have as many early round picks as possible. There is no such thing as having too many picks in rounds 1-3.

And its not as hard as it seems to trade. NFL Teams trade up and down more than any other sport (except maybe Hockey). The draft is broken up into 2 days just to accomodate making trades and evaluating their situation. Determining what is the maximum value of your pick and how desperate certain teams want certain players is the hard part.

If we had another 3, we could easily package two of them and move up to a 2 and select a player that has dropped too far. Yes it may be Jabaar Gafney, but it could also be a Clinton Portis.

First of all Tony Boselli and his injuries are quite worrisome. I'm not sold until he actually plays.

As far as taking a lesser player on the hopes of landing a gem in the 2nd or 3rd round, the strategy has worked. It doesnt mean it will ork with us in this draft but it has worked over and over. How is it obviously a mistake? Its only a mistake if the people you draft happens to play exactly the way you project. There is nothing obvious about it.

Like I said, Bill Walsh and Bobby Beatherd were masters at it because they knew their stuff. If I felt the Texans didnt have a clue what they're doing, then yes, Id take the sure thing. Will this mean that player will work out - of course not. Frankly I think our scouts are pretty good and I trusts them to maximize the extra pick. Like I said earlier, you can leverage the pick up as well as down. Frankly, if we leveraged the pick and got Andre Johnson and maybe a Greg Jones (assuming he's healthy) or some other RB, Im just as confident that this could turn in our favor as you believe it wont.

Yes trading down could be a risk and we won't get the player we wanted. Thats the real potential negative of trading down, not getting the extra player.

Yes, a lot of things won't be determined until mid Janauary. However, lets do some logical inductive reasoning.

How many different combinations could there be?

1. Cincinnati needs a QB. I doubt they draft Rogers after their last high WR pick, Peter Warrick. So Carson palmer or Leftwich or a possible trade in which that team will most likely take Palmer or Leftwich.

2. Detroit. Rogers. It would seem to be a perfect fit. Hometown guy etc etc...

3. Houston. Ok, we have a lot of choices here. We could take Kennedy.. There's also the Palmer/Leftwich leftover. Assuming Willis McGahee leaves early, it's conceivable he could go here. Chicago needs a QB bad. It's not a stretch to say someone would desperately want Palmer/Leftwich or Willis McGahee.

4- 6 This is how I concluded that Kennedy could be taken at these spots. The issue is how bad we want Kennedy and how bad other teams want whoever we can pick at 3.

I could be wrong but this is how I see.

I agree Free Agency is a great way to go. However, I wouldnt go overboard with Free Agents. There's nothing faster that would sink a franchise than bloated contracts you cant get rid off. Id rather than have them sign only a few free agents than to sign a ton and have it backfire on us. Depth, Ive talked about. You can never have enough draft choices. To move up or down or even trade picks away for the following year as we did with Atlanta last year.

 

no kidding.

re: rogers v. williams, i think roy williams has limitless potential. but i don't think he's had a better career than charles rogers and i don't think their numbers are comparable. and... right now, i don't think anyone would draft williams ahead of rogers -- there're simply far too many "ifs" attached to his game; same with chris simms, btw.

i'm concerned he's never been a consistent gamebreaker and that he's consistently battled injuries -- both of those things are giant red flags, imo.

as for trading the #3 pick, and all the attending ho-hah, i'll say this: if you want to look at history as a means to forumulate a rough outline for how to draft successfully (not something i advocate, but, whatever), try this: most of the best players in the game were top picks. there are ample exceptions, but most were taken in the first round, and a lot of those guys were taken in the top half of the first round. don't spit out jeff garcia or kurt warner -- there're exceptions; bound to be when you're talking about some 800 players. but of the six league leaders (pennington, williams, harrison, johnson, mcallister and moss) all were first rounders.

bottom line, you're far more likely to find a gem in round one than round 3, and you're far more likely to find a gem at the top of the first round as oppossed to the bottom. and when you're a team with holes at virtually every position, like the texans, i just don't see the wisdom in passing on one of the best prospects because you'd rather stress quanity. because if you pass on gamebreakers in thedraft, where else are you gonna find 'em?

last year, a lot of people wanted them to trade the top pick... looking back, would you trade david carr for anyone in the first round, just so you could add some depth?

there's a tremendous difference in ranking prospects and discussing when and where prospects will be drafted -- the two are not mutually exclusive. just because player A might drop to pick 5 or 6, doesn't mean he's a reach at #3 if you've deemed him worthy of the #3 pick.

teams don't always draft best available, but greatest need.

we're talking about filling out the roster, not signing az hakim. there are role players and talented youngsters that can be found who can make impacts (jeff posey, for instance; billy miller, jajuan dawson, eric brown, to name a few).

 

Did nobody see the Charley Casserly interview on Fox news last night where he said the pick is for sale?

 

Yeah I saw it. I was glad to hear it. I cant read his mind but I think he's saying: Show me what youve got. If youve got nothing we'd be happy to take our player. If you are interested what's the price youre willing to pay.

Just because you have a For Sale sign in the window does not mean you have to sell anything. However, if youre willing sell, letting people know about it ain't a bad thing.


Ric, as far as David Carr,

I think he's a tough S.O.B. with a good future. However, honestly, I'd be just as happy (if not happier) if we had Byron Leftwich (who I think is more accurate than Carr). That's just my personal opinion.

And as far as the NFL leaders, there as many players there who were drafted in the middle of the first round as those who were drafted in the Top 10. Maybe its just me, but trading down to get Andre Johnson is not a reach. He is a playmaker and could turn out to be as big a stud as Rogers. However, if we took Rogers, I wouldnt be crying either. I would just like the extra pick(s)

 

When they actually have to put him in single coverage, this is what happens.

Rogers doesn't get this luxury.

 

Hmm, yeah single coverage like the one where he outran about 8 LSU defenders on the reverse.

Other than the very 1st play, he was double-covered with the CB and safety. Even then he was open almost every time.

 

Of course he's fast, and of course he's the 2nd best WR in the nation. Of course he's the only reason the Texas passing game is even good (don't give me Chris Simms garbage...without Williams, Simms was basically nothing this game).


Great player, and I hope he reconsiders the whole coming back thing.

 

As a Longhorn fan, Im hoping he stays of course.

Roy was the only WR that was open the whole day. Our other WR's are very overrated.

Can you belive that out of HS BJ Johnson, Williams and Rogers were all about equally ranked?

 

Oh yeah I almost forgot, I want him to come out because the Jags have the 8th pick this year, and if McGahee comes out with him, I doubt 2 WRs are taken before then.

 

and of course he's the 2nd best WR in the nation
I guess you haven't seen Rashaun Woods.

 

Or he's better

 

ehhh.... rogers and williams both would likely go top 5. a lot can happen between now and april, but it's hard to see the lions passing on rogers and the texans passing on williams.

regardless, i think both go in front of mcgahee, unless a team is just desperate for a RB.

 

How will Kennedy fair in a 3-4? He's going to get doubled most of the time anyway. Or will he? I'm not a huge football expert. Do you think he can impact a defense in the 3-4?

 

he's a lane-clogging load -- he'd fit in perfectly. i watched bits and pieces of his game yesterday, and he was double-teamed each and every snap i saw. he'd make an already decent defense better, a true impact player.

we need help everywhere.

bowl games are really, trully, ultimately meaningless in the scouting process. they put far more weight in their offseason workouts, interviews, etc. that's when players start playing themselves in to and out of rounds.

 

in terms of measureables, he's the best OLB in college football. the question is where he'll go. i get the feeling he's gonna be one of those guys who grades very high at the combine and works himself intothe middle of the first round.

i don't dispute the reasons he's yet to put up rogers-like numbers; i think mack brown and greg davis are ruinous and i know he's been hurt. the former shouldn't be too big a deal in the NFL but the later is. physically, and on paper, he may grade higher than rogers, but i promise you, the injuries keep williams below him. if it was AN injury, maybe not, but he has the reoccurring kind, no? his ankle and hamstring, right?

that said, he's still a top 10 pick at this point and maybe even a top 5.

 

i don't think so -- he had AN injury; granted, he may have done irreparable damage to it, but that's to be determined. i think he and palmer are the first two QBs taken, and from there, it's a toss-up: manning (if he comes out), raggone, possibly rivers (if he comes out), simms and boller -- ALL could be first round picks, certainly all are probably gone mid-second round -- GREAT news for the texans.