Carlos Correa to the Twins - 6 years, $200 million

Seager was a terrible deal because he's just not available enough. No way you commit to a player like that, but Texas felt it was mandatory they make a splash in FA after the 2021 season.

 

Also, 2nd year Correa missed all of spring training. Still, Twins are in contention. And that's what Correa does. He puts them in the conversation.

 

Who's been a worse fa signing, Correa or Abreau?

 

Carlos Correa Broke his Leg in High A Lancaster Sliding into 3rd Base his Cleat Spike got stuck on the Rubber bag at 3rd.

He was 18 years old at the Time and Had Surgery plate with Screws to Fix his Leg. He recovered.

I believe he would've Naturally Healed without Plate and Screws. Just should've put him in a Cast.

 

What claim is that? Literally all I did was math and applied it to what his OBP and iso is and moved his actual BAbip to average babip.
There’s nothing the least bit controversial about that. His iso is almost 200. His OBP is like 80 points higher than his BA. His babip is 200. Maybe there’s something about him that makes him a 200 babip guy as opposed to 300. I didn’t even remark on that, just said with an a barrage babip his stats would be…
And, those slash numbers btw are pretty
Close to what he’s done in the past.

 

Carlos has been the better player this year, but his money is WAY HIGHER and contract longer.

So I would say Carlos is a worse contract by a neck.

More glad every day Carlos turned down that 160m/5 year deal the Astros offered (or whatever it was).

 

He’s a career 276/354/475 guy.
This year he’s 191/272/374.

career his OBP is 78 points higher than his Ba and his iso is 199.

this year his OBP is 81 points higher than his BA and his iso is 183. That looks like the same guy to me. Still walking the same (at a very good not quite excellent rate). Still same iso at a very good but not excellent rate. his babip for his career is 314. His babip this year is 211.
now- you can believe that babip is a controllable skill by the player and he’s done something over the off season for it to fall off a cliff and this is his new normal, or you can look at his slash line and say basically the 100 point difference between his babip this year Bs his career makes up just about the entirety of the difference in his slash line and say- small sample size and move on. But that’s the math and that’s the only claim I was making. The entirety of the difference between Correas year this year and in his career is basically driven by BABIP.

 

Further note- his HR per AB went from 22 to 26.
His K% moved from 20.5 to 21.5
His BB% moved from 10.6 to 10.3.
That means 6 extra k’s over a full year and 3 less walks over a full year. mot also means 4 less HR’s over the course of the year. Considering that HR rate rises every month along with the weather and he plays in the coldest outdoor stadium in baseball I would strongly bet that those numbers stabilize at where they always are.
I don’t see any statistical information that leads to any evidence he’s moved from a really really good player to terrible. I have NOT dug in to his quality of contact stats because I quite frankly am not conversant enough to read that and know what it means really well.

 

feel bad for Carlos, looks like teams were wise not to give him a long term deal

 

His babip is still 50 points below his career average. If you added that to his stat line he’s probably 10% above average vs 15% below average offensively. Defensive metrics look fine but not special.
Bad season for him. If the twins make the playoffs and he plays well there they don’t regret year one of his deal- but oof. He’s played more or less every day.

 

What's your resting BabLap?

 

Delete.