Carlos Correa to the Twins - 3 Years, $105 Million

If he got paid like he was always on the field he should command $40M+ per season.

But @Nick is right that the main concern is his back, which has stayed healthy, so there are going to be teams that see little reason to assume he'll continue to be injured any more frequently than other shortstops.

 

FIRST LAST AAV (M) YRS TOTAL (M) YRS AAV

MAX SCHERZER 43.3 3 130 2 64.1 32.05______-11.M
GERRIT COLE 36 9 324 6 160.7 26.78__________-9.22M
MIKE TROUT 35.5 12 426.5 8 246.1 30.76_______-4.74M
CARLOS CORREA 35.1 3 105.3 1 35.1 35.1 0 Not calculated
STEPHEN STRASBURG 35 7 245 4 0.7 0.175___-34.8M
ANTHONY RENDON 35 7 245 4 11.6 2.9_______-32.1M
FRANCISCO LINDOR 34.1 10 341 9 293.1 32.57__-1.53M
TREVOR BAUER 34 3 102 0 0 0_________________-34.00M
COREY SEAGER 32.5 10 32.5 9 290.8 32.31_____-0.19M
NOLAN ARENADO 32.5 8 260 5 109.1 21.82_____-10.7M

How to blow money when you act like a fan instead of an owner.

 

i think early national media assessment that he was going to be competing with Trout as the top player in all of MLB, really did get to his head. He’s a talented fellow, no doubt about it. He’s a gold glove, perennial all-star short stop, with ice in his veins when it matters. I remember reading that it was estimated that perhaps Carlos Correa would be the first 500 million contract.

But it’s pretty much evidence that he is in the middle of the pack of elite above average players. He has battled a lot of injuries during his career; and injuries scare big contracts away.

I think Carlos Correa expressing that the Astros best offer as disrespectful, were a bit of a delusion.

I would much rather have Carlos Correa on the Astros than Peña; but Peña is a formidable replacement.

 

He has a big ego, this we already knew.

However if the reported offer was correct, a 6 year deal that only covered his prime years at a non premium number was an offer the Astros knew he never had any intention of taking. Disrespectful was a poor choice of words, but it wasn't a serious offer. It was probably a smart, pragmatic offer for us, but not market competitive.

There's a chance Correa's ego will still lead him to overplaying his hand and losing money, but it won't be because he scoffed at our offer. Even with his disappointing season, he will easily be able to secure more money when combined with the 35 million he made this season.

 

Every person deserves to choose their own destiny.

But if Carlos wants a ring, it isn't happening in Minny. After the Astros, the Dodgers would be the next best destination for that. Yankees, Mets and Braves, a decent shot.

Outside of these teams, it can only be about the money.

 

Neal: Correa’s production for Twins hasn’t equaled $35.1 million salary

https://www.yahoo.com/news/neal-correa-production-twins-hasn-223500856.html

 

What constitutes a contender changes literally from year to year. Any player that signed with us back in 15/16 would have been going to a non contender, or anybody that signed with Atlanta a few years ago.

The money is virtually always the primary driving factor, but signing with a fringe playoff team right now doesn't mean he doesn't think he can win there. Hell almost 1/3 of the league has won a world series in the last decade.

 

Has Cole earned his contract?
Has Trout earned his contract?
Rendon?
DeGrom?
Lindor?
Seager?
Sale?
Stanton?

Honestly you could make this argument for almost every player on the highest paid list...except for JV!

 

Agree…. Don’t do long term contract. Have never been worth it. It’s possible Correa reads the tea leaves and stays to collect another 35 million next year.

 

Actually, this is exactly why you do a long term contract (if you're the player).

 

I think Correa would be unwise to test the open market again unless he is committed to accepting whatever the largest total $ commitment is offered to him, even if that is only something in the $200M range. If he isn’t resigned to that then he needs to go another year with the Twins and hopefully have a better year and enter into a thinner SS market. If I were his agent I would be pressing him hard to opt out and secure the biggest bag he can even if it doesn’t meet his previous expectations. The new competitive landscape has a lot of teams ripe to give out big contracts, and the list of potential suitors is longer than it has ever been or likely ever will be (Dodgers, Orioles, Twins, Cubs, Phillies, Red Sox, Cardinals, Braves, Marlins, Mariners, Tigers,Yankees, and Angels all could feasibly be in position to offer him at least $200M).

 

I believe that's his most lucrative option. But he and his agent continue to pretend hi is a top 10 player and that only applies to stretches, not consistentcy.

I looked at the AL Top 10 and expected to see this top 6 player all over it. Nope. Only one appearance in the top 10. Double plays hit into where's he's 6.

$35.1M? Not hardly. Roger is only a $32M AAV player.

 

Right, I’m looking a the owner side. It was smart of the Astros not to give out 10 year contracts.

 

...

 

He's not THAT good.

 

Fangraphs values him at $233.3M over his career. That is $29.16M per season. Of course, he didn't make his debut until part way through his first season, lost 100 games to COVID, and we've still got 1/4 of this season to go, but lets just take away one season worth of games. He's up to 33.33M/season even with his injuries factored in. Now lets average him out to 150 games/season and he would be worth $41.29M/season.

He really is that good. Whether it is wise to actually pay it is an entirely different question.

 

That $41M/yr is totally reasonable but it’s for a fully healthy Correa in his prime years. So if Correa were willing to take a 3-4 year deal then $41M/yr is probably a pretty fair deal. But if he is looking for a longer deal taking him past his prime age years, then those out years need to come at a discount.

I think a team will end up doing something like $240M/7yrs with some games played and award incentives, maxing him out at something like $270M.

 

JV certainly didn't earn his big contract in 2020 and 2021

 

I appreciate Correa for the clutch hits, defensive plays, helping win three pennants and a world championship, but also being the only player, maybe the only person in the organization (I can remember) that strongly, publicly defended Altuve.

 

I love correa. I can’t be rational about it. If he signs a long term deal for $200M and it isn’t with the Astros I will be devastated.