I'm talking about the category number 3. I don't even pay attention to the other two categories personally. There are a couple of analysts in category number 3 that have specifically singled out Capela and saying they are very high on him as recently as this season. Lowe, Arnowitz..Pelton if you include him in that category (I don't) etc.
Lowe was high on Terrence too. IMO, Lowe is great at analyzing team defense. But I don't trust him on individual talent. Isn't Pelton a Heat guy? I don't even consider him a true league commentator. Same with Arnowitz. I don't get the sense that Pelton nor Arnowitz really study all the teams. I personally like the guy in Utah. David ....... He brings it about a straight as anybody....even on his hometown team players. Very analytical. He approaches analysis in a very common sense fashion that I relate to. He knows the game. He watches a player play. He forms an opinion after extensive observation of the player. Then he goes looking for data evidence to support or disprove his initial opinion. If the data supports his opinion he looks for more data and let's his opinion seep deeper into his mind. If the data doesn't support his opinion then he backs up and watches the player some more with his previous opinion set to the side. I like him a lot. I think he's one of the best player evaluation analysts in the business even though his primary job is to call Jazz games. He's way better at player evaluation than many that make a living doing it. Player evaluation starts with what you see on court. And I'm not taking about a guy flashing for a lob dunk. There's 300 guys in the Association that can do that. You gotta watch the games and then rewatch them and iso watch the player before starting to develop an opinion on him if you expect to be able to cull the good from the mediocre.
The guy you are responding to is more of a contrarian than an analyst, regardless of what he believes himself to be. CC's value in a trade is higher now than it has ever been. That's based on offers we've heard for him. That alone is enough to show you that GM's around the league believe him to be better than they did before. Now, holic defInitely spends time thinking about this stuff, and there's SOME method behind it, but if an economist and a trump voter both analysed comparative advantages based on international trade agreements, who do you think would be right? even that's not clear really. Basically, listening to holic instead of the GM's of the league is like walking up to a geologist and saying "Igneous rocks are bullshit." It makes no sense to say that obviously, but because basketball analysis seems intuitive (when really it's not) it's harder to tell when you are actually right, instead of just lucky.
ROFL at getting your player evaluation from GM's public comments and trade rumors. I can't quit laughing right now at the stupidity.
ALMOST ALL in this thread did NOT agree Capela made Dwight "obsolete". Just FEW people in this thread even agreed that Capela could be a decent starter. Only ONE poster passionately tossed away Howard for a "better" Capela. So CAN'T say CF'ers overall were illogical on this. Its obvious even though Dwight's post game is rickety that just having an interior THREAT gives an added element that the defense has to account for. Can see how Dwight (when properly focused) can get the opposition into foul trouble and force them to adjust. Simply being a finisher of plays is okay, still one of easiest things to exploit is a size mismatch. The small ball lineup can't have TOO many weaklings, especially its interior rim protector. And thats just the offensive part in the Capela vs Dwight thing. I'm not down on Capela. I've just never been too down on Dwight.
Pelton is the stats "guru" of ESPN who has developed a system called Shoene or smth I think, and judges players. The reason I don't personally trust him is that I am no certain he watches games lol. Nope. Arnowitz definitely watches the Rockets. It's one of his favourite teams. And he has vast experience in the field. I don't know this David guy. Got any link to his twitter or page? Oh CC's value is DEFINITELY the highest it will ever be. Why? Because next year he will be a RFA on his last year (so need to get paid) and most likely by then he will have been exposed as not yet a starting caliber C. And unless a light goes on his head his value will also diminish by stalled improvement. When it comes to GMs I don't pay any attention. According to GMs Trashquez was worth a 1st and a 2nd rounder and MCW a high lottery pick. The corpse of Pierce and Garnett multiple firsts. Bellineli the scrub a mid first. There are countless and countless stupid trades. Don't judge by Morey, many GMs are idiots. My hesitation in regards to Capela is firstly because there are many analysts I mostly trust who are still high on him, and secondly I may be negatively influenced. Because I watch two teams. And perhaps in the back of my mind I am comparing the progress of prospects I see in one with Capela. Even though if you compare Capela to someone even like Henson who has mental issues (too happy go lucky) there is not enough progress in his game. For example Henson who is now a third string C, by his 3rd year had improved much more in D and stamina and his strength. And we are talking about someone who as a whole didn't improve much after getting drafted and was a dissapointment. I find it unacceptable that by his third year in the league Capela still has stamina and strength issues and hasn't learned to better control his fouls.
All those fouls add up. Dwight is still a great difference-making player whose defensive and rebounding skills we now lack and are looking for. No he's not Hakeem, Shaq, or Yao. But he's still a defensive and rebounding force with disruptive offensive finishing ability. It could have worked with him and James if both men had wanted it to work and were both willing to make the personal sacrifices to their individual games to make it work. Just a lesson in immaturity.
I shortened your qoute a lot to address my favorite bits, not trying to take you out of context. 1) What is it that you are seeing that GM's aren't? You seem to think GM's and yourself are on opposite sides of the coin, and that the reality is somewhere in the middle? The thing is, we aren't going by a single GM's opinion when we gauge value. We are going by ALL of them, because they are all market participants. So outliers making dumb trades in theory aren't as much of a factor when determining strictly value. Unless you think ALL GM's are stupid. Which I don't think is what you are saying. 2) What is Capela's potential being compared against? Most people think he will end up being a serviceable defensive center with double double potential on any given night, with his upper ceiling being a solid starter on a championship team. Henson was expected to be much more than that, IIRC. 3) historically, RFA has significantly lowered a free agents value, because of the opportunity costs involved in waiting around for the other team to match or not match. Morey has handfuls of examples. Landry comes to mind. It's reasonable to expect that even if CC doesn't improve a single iota, his value is still repressed at the moment. 4) CC's development - I actually agree with you on this. His lack of stamina is alarming. I just believe that information is already priced into his current value.
Have you actually been right about anything yet? Also, do you actually have a method other than throwing **** at a wall until something you say happens to become true?
In fact, both our bigs Rhyno and Capela would be best served off the bench They are both back ups starting here
Absolutely true. ^ Which is why we're looking to acquire.......________, or _________, or _________.?
No, never. Yeah I just throw poo on the wall, like Lowry would be a great player (when he was still backing up Conley with Memphis), or like JJ Redick will be one of the top players in his draft class, or like Lowry is clearly better than Brooks when they were dueling for playing time, or like I was willing to trade Brooks and a pick for Curry when he was at Davidson, or like Terrence needs to be traded when he had a good first month in 2013-14, or like we won't trade for Lawson and owe him two guaranteed salary seasons. Yeah I just fling crap up. Go away child.
Oh yeah I know him. Very good though he has said some things that proved utterly wrong (in short time too). Arnowitz and Lowe are as good imo. 1) GMs aren't all of the same mind. Some are stupid, some are complete puppets to their owners, some are desperate because they are about to get fired and some are much smarter and know much more about bball than I ever will even in 30 years. But the thing is...TRADE value and actual value of the player on the court are two different things. We arent talking here about the value of CC as a trade asset. I don't doubt that. We are talking about his value as a starting C. And about his progress as a prospect. (which sooner or later will affect his trade value as well). 2) A lot of casual fans, or hardcore fans who don't watch the Rockets think of Capela as one of the best C prospects. A lot of respectable analysts as well think he can become a great C. If you talking about me, I judge according to the other young players I watch regularly. Their progress. And in that area Capela seems to have inadequate progress, imo. I don't understand what you mean by 3). A restricted agent to be even with rights of first refusal has his trade value repressed, because any way it goes he won't be the next year in a extremely cheap rookie contract but will get much more $. The only way the TRADE value of CC is bigger next summer than this one, is if he shows considerable progress in his body, skills and bball iq. If he stays the same as he is now his TRADE value will be lower than now.
A 5% improvement? That sure as hell makes him worth $23 million -- not. Thank god Morey went with the far cheaper option in Capela/Nene.
Dwight rebounds and defends when he's engaged. He clearly wasn't his last year here or in LA or towards the end of his run in Orlando. He's still in the honeymoon stage with Atlanta.
