As long as our role players don't absolutely disappear (Rafer, Howard, Head, Wells/Snyder) we should be beat them. Both teams can play excellent team defense, but we have the two best half court offensive players on our side of the floor, and that matters even more in playoff style BB. Deron Williams would my biggest concern. Probably the one guy they have that can get some kind of decent shot on his own and we have no answer in terms of size and quickness. He can physical our little guards, and I don't think our big guards can keep up. But I'd rather deal with him than be Utah and deal with Tmac. I'd say we take them by 6 if we have our complete team ready to go.
We really struggle against teams with effective back courts. Recall NOK. I am concerned we will really have trouble with UTAH-very effective coaching and preparation.
Im looking forward to the last game of the season because then it basically makes it an 8 game series... We play At Utah and then we play At Utah again for the playoffs. So that last game will sort of determine whose the favorite.
Well we are pretty much locked into this matchup so I would like to say yes we win in 5, tops 6 games then I think we take the Mavs in 6. San Antonio takes care of that problem that calls itself the Suns and then it's gonna be a 7 game series with San Antonio with game seven at their place. That series will be a toss up and the winner will win the NBA title. Jazz, come on we have two superstars. Mavs, I really think we cause them more matchup problem than they do us when both teams are healthy. Spurs, I was fooled thinking they were done, those pieces of crap are not and I am scared to death about seeing a Parker vs Skip matchup.
I think Williams is more of a problem to Alston than Parker. Williams is quick and strong. If we play SA the more the ball is in Parkers hand's instead of TD and Manu, the better. I also think you underestimate Dallas. Dirk is a huge problem for us. Terry causes Parker like problems but with range all the way to the 3 line. Tmac will have to do an exceptional job of breaking down their defense and playing efficiently to have a chance against them. I like how we match-up with the Spurs better than the more athletic and perimeter offensive teams in Dallas and the Suns.
I think the biggest advantage we have on them is the fact that we have go-to guys, and let's face it, in the playoffs, more often than not, the game is going to come down to the final 12 minutes. That's when you need a guy like Tim Duncan, Dirk, or Yao & T-Mac (in reality, we need both....Yao's inside presence, and T-Mac's decision making). Outside of the Pistons, every team that has gone deep in the playoffs has had that guy they can turn to when they need someone to impose his will. The Jazz DO NOT have anyone that can change the face of the game, a la Wade against the Mavs. In the playoffs, this is a HUGE commodity to have, especially when execution becomes so imperative. Secondly, the Rockets have excellent TEAM DEFENSE. The individual matchups don't really paint an accurate picture of the matchups because so many times, you're forced to slide or help on defense. The Rockets are the best defensive team in the league, and that's something that comes in handy....especially in the playoffs when games tend to slow down significantly, and teams start trying to impose their gameplan. Shooting comes and goes, but defense is something that keeps you in games until the very end. I would say the biggest advantage the Jazz have on us is Mehmet Okur's shooting. Traditionally, the Rockets have always had trouble guarding big men who can step outside and drain the 3, like Dirk, and Rashard Lewis. That's why a guy like Shane Battier has made such a huge impact for us this season....T-Mac can now guard the big man on the perimeter because of his long arms, and not worry that his man will beat us on a backdoor or P/R. Even though it's not going to be a sweep, I say the Rockets will be able to execute their style of play more effectively than the Jazz, and the Rockets will take it in 6.
We still play them twice near the end of the season, so both teams will be playing close to "playoff" level. It might be good if we split those two games, instead of winning both so we are not confident against them. On the other hand, the two games might be critical for homecourt...
OK good points but, the Williams is better than Skip thing will not matter because we will handle those guys pretty easy. No I am not underestimating Dallas at all. Dirk is a matchup problem for everyone but I just think the fact that they got nobody to gaurd Yao, must double T-Mac as well all we have to do is hit shots and those guys are screwed. San Antonio's d is much better than the mavs and they have been playing our style of ball longer and with the same key guys. I bet anything that if the spurs were healthy (I mean 100%) in the playoffs they play the heat and not dallas. About a month ago I was drinking the "san antonio is done" kool aid but not anymore. We will see them in the west finals and that win over dallas does not mean jack if we can't beat San Antonio.
SA looks anything but done.. But I admit to speculating as to that at points as well. The key against Utah, will be to overpower their game with ours. We shouldn't need to adjust or counter. Against Dallas, we will undoubtedly have to adjust and counter effectively. As I dont see us quite as talented.
I don't think this team is a lock to play the Jazz in the 1st round. The Lakers are not to far behind the rockets in the standings and the rockets could very easily open up as a #6 seed against the Spurs in the 1st round.
SA's defense wasn't that great last playoffs--both the Kings and Mavs found plenty of holes. And last year they had a 1 year younger Bowen, Horry, Barry, Duncan, Manu & Finley, and better centers to pair with Duncan. The Mavs defense by numbers doesn't always look that great, but they can turn it up and cause a lot of TOs and disrupt low post games. The Mavs are much quicker in their guards and forwards, and that makes them more able to disrupt low post games. They totally took out and confused Oneal in the finals (finally the Heat decided to just run through Wade by game 3), I think they could do the same to Yao. I think there will be a lot more openings for Yao versus the Spurs than the Mavs, who have better defensive Cs (unless SA wants TD to pick up a bunch of fouls guarding Yao) and quicker and more unpredicatble doubles. Now with Manu and Barry and Parker playing well (TD always plays well) the Spurs offense is about at good as it has been, but their defense is not what it used to be.
San Antonio could just as easily start to look slow and tired again. That's their problem. TD is still hungry, but not like he was early in his career. Manu half the time these days looks like he would rather be in Argentina and Tony is so inconsistent. They can play at championship level, too, though, if they each just turn it up a little notch, because they are all 3 extremely skilled, and complimented by a pretty deep, experienced bench. Utah is equally troubling, but also inexperienced, so even with Utah having homecourt, I'd be surprisd if the odds weren't close to a pick'em before the playoffs start on the Houston-Utah series. That will be the only series we are even close to being favored to win. Dallas, San Antonio and Phoenix all should beat us. As a die-hard Rockets fan, of course I'll take my chances against anyone, but have to face reality, too. Few (no?) teams have pulled off the 94-95 playoff run of who they beat without homecourt advantage. I believe the Rockets of this year can, but am not counting on it. Utah should be toast, though!
no no no no no no, playing the utah jazz will be like playing the mavericks, both teams are athletic, deep, and have great clutch performers and offense. Rockets have none of that, we have no bench(literally), we have no point guard (rafer just likes to dribble the ball, although he sucks at it), no consistent shooters (head and battier are consistent), no offense (when t mac and yao are on the bench), no energy (because the rookies never play), and finally no presence(come on, if you were a team would you rather play the mavs or the rockets?) what we do have though, is great team defense, tmac, yao, and a great defensive minded coach van gundy. unless we get a decent point guard or a deeper or better bench, we won't last in the playoff against the elite teams
In fact, amongst the top 6 teams (up to the Lakers), Utah is the most beatable one by the Rox. I'd say even the Nuggets can be tougher for Rox than the Jazz would be. Why? Rox did not play well against run-and-gun teams. Look at the record vs. Suns where Rox were often blown away as early as 2nd quarter. Rox is built for half-court, starting with the coach down to the personnel. We are not a fast team, but a great team-defensive team ... on half-court set, and really tough defense in the paint, due to Yao and Deke. The best counter to Rox is Run-and-gun, as Rox players can't keep up, and have no time to set up half-court defense. On the other hand, trying to beat Rox at half-court game will be almost futile when Yao and Tmac are both on top of their games. I'd say even Spurs would have real trouble beating the Rox in a 7-game series. Utah is even more half-court oriented than the Spurs, except their pick-n-roll is the best in NBA. Once Rox figures out the pick-n-roll defense, Utah will be chewed out to pieces. So, the easiest teams for Rox to beat in the playoffs are (in order - based on today's standing): 1. Clippers (seems very out of sync now after a great start) 2. Jazz (said it above) 3. Nuggets (only because AI and Melo are not in sync yet, and they don't seem to have the fire to win - otherwise, they will be lower) 4. Spurs 5. Lakers (by virtue of Kobe, some players getting healthy, and Phil Jackson's legendary playoff genius. But if the players like Odom, Walton, and Radmanovic aren't coming back, Lakers will be easier to beat). 6. Mavs 7. Suns (even though Mavs are a better team, Suns run-n-gun will give Rox the most trouble).
What kind of faith is that in your team? The lakers are limping, and we just got everyone back, oh wait, maybe you're worried because we don't have "the Bonz" ... AAayyyyyyyyy. *thumbs up* Relax, he'll be back soon! While I agree it is not a lock that we will play the jazz, as there are many games left, my hope is that we move up to the 4 (yes, I know we're 5 back on that), The Jazz move to 6 and Lakers move to 5. Yes, it's a stretch, but that's what I'm hoping for, and at least it's positive. Then Jazz has to deal with San Antonio, or vice versa and we get Lakers who we should beat more readily. If it doesn't happen, it doesn't happen. I think we will beat the Jazz anyway, but it will be a hard fight. Sloan will pull out all the stops, but I think our weapons have more ups. Also worth mentioning is, Schedule... Both the Rockets and Jazz have 21 games to play. Of those, the Jazz have 6 vs. the East, while the Rox have 7. Jazz play 11 vs. Currently Playoff bound teams, as do the Rockets. While both teams have similar schedules in terms of how many games left vs. East Conference and West, the last two weeks of the Rockets schedule has the rockets playing 6 of their last 8 against lower tier teams (Bottom 8 in conference...GS, POR, SAC, SEA, POR, NOK) and Jazz playing only 4 (SAC, SEA, GS, and POR). So technically, we could hope to gain ground there. They have a tough last 5 games, facing Denver, Dallas and Phoenix back to back, a break with Portland, and then vs. us in their last game. The two games vs. the Jazz in April COULD make the difference in overtaking them for the 4, but my point is, it looks like the end of the regular season will be tougher for them than for us... and gaining ground LOOKS more likely than losing it... of course, anything can happen... but if we could find a way to take BOTH games vs. the Jazz, I really think we can do it (take the fourth). That said, some adversity in the first round, if overcome, might be the best thing for going FURTHER into the playoffs and succeeding, if we don't wear ourselves out. Bottom line, I like our chances in the first round, and I'm guessing no one wants to play us if we're healthy. Yes.... is the short version of my answer to the thread's question, but what I'm hoping for is more success than thinking our fate is already determined, and to make more of it than just where we are now, and I'm certainly not expecting to fall further down. Not that it can't happen, but I wouldn't PREDICT it.
