Agree with everything except for the last statement. Are you sure you have the year right? Because I can't imagine a 58 win team(higher than this year's champion) not being considered a contender.
Tell me how many playoff runs Bosh led the Raptors to? Bosh is overrated when comes getting you a championship. They had a good enough supporting cast where a "Superstar" should have been at least able to make the playoffs consistently. Its not like the East is difficult like the West.
my point exactly Bosh is overrated....give me Scola anyday and to the guy that says we cant hang with LA...look at both front lines Yao Scola Hill Hayes Paterson vs. Bynum Gasoft Odom Mbenga Powell i'll take the rockets we just NEED a 7ft back-up
To add to what I previously posted, the West could be in decline quite dramatically this year and when in the past it was 50+ wins to get in, this next year it might be 45+. The teams in the East who land Max talent players should improve, but the ones who miss out could end up being alot worse. All in all the East should stay the same with the exception of 1 or 2 teams. But in the West it should look like this: Teams that will potentially decline: The Lakers- still will be championship caliber but because of age will probably lose a couple more games during season. The Jazz - Most likely lossing Boozer and Korver. Im not sure Deron Williams is good enough to carry the rest of the team any further than they went last year. The Spurs - Same band of misfits, one year older. The supporting cast has gotten better but Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker are breaking down more and more every season. The Mavericks - Taking into account they will almost def. resign Dirk and strike out with Lebron, that leaves them with essentially the same aging cast of Terry, Kidd, Marion, Butler, and Dampier. Haywood will probabably sign with another team that overpays for a Center. Should still make the playoffs but will give up a few more games here and there. Phoenix - If they lose Amare it is hard to see them winning more than 45 games next year. Nash is declining slightly but should still get them into the playoff picture. Denver - Hard to see this team get much better unless with K-Mart's injuries and Billups declining, but Carmelo will be in a contract year so we could see a very productive year out of Melo. Doesnt mean the team will be much better though. Teams that Could Improve but Probably Wont: The Clippers - History usually depicts what to expect for the future. Even with Griffith coming back, they will still probably remain at the bottom of the pack. Sacramento - AKA Youth in Revolt. I see there being too many young egos in the room for this group to win very many games. Dalembert was moved in part from locker room distractions, the addition of Cousins and Whiteside, and Tyreke continuing his ball hogging could lead to dissaster. On the other hand, they could turn a corner and put all that talent to good use. Highly doubtful. Minnesota - No way. Not until Rubio comes over do they stand a chance. Golden State - Still a couple years and couple good Vets short of competing. Teams That Will Be Better: Portland - Big "if" is if they can stay healthy and get Oden a full season under his belt. Could be a 50 win team. Oklahoma City - Could contend for #2 spot behind the Lakers. Roster continues to get deeper with front court size. Nobody looks better for the future than OKC. Then there is Houston: With Yao coming back, the growth of our young players, and more consistency in lineup, we should get at least 6-8 more wins next year and put us somewhere between the 3-7 spot in the playoffs right in contention in the West.
It depends. First, let's assume that Yao will mostly be available and we make no more moves in the offseason. Now by 'mostly' I mean at about 80% of his prime for about 60 games (a really possible scenario). Let's assume that we win about 50% of the time with Yao out (that is about 10 plus/minus 2 games) and we win about 65% with Yao in. That would give us 49 (plus/minus 2) wins over the season. Let's take a break here: the 50% assumption is based on this season's performance. We had some fluke wins and more than enough fluke losses. With Hill, Budinger improving, and Patterson added, we may very well get about 55% of the Yao-less games. The 65% assumption is based on the 2008/2009 season. We can agree that Ariza and Artest are close to equal in terms of production. Battier has aged since, and perhaps Yao's output will be less, but Brooks improved by miles (MIP), and we have added two (three) great young talents with Budinger, Hill (and Patterson). We also lost Landry, but have KMart who is much better than the 0809 McGrady. If I were optimistic (and I feel I should be), we could reach 70% with Yao in. Keeping the 60-22 ratio, the optimistic estimation would be 42+12 = 54 wins. That should be 3-5th spot. Note that if (ceteris paribus) we win more, some other teams MUST lose more, and that should make us safer, if we accept that we get two win more in the Western Conf. Now we have to consider how other teams change during the offseason. If we assume that Portland, OKC improve considerably, then it's logical that the j*zz will decline some, simply because they get to play with two improved teams more. In the Lakers' division, I am dead sure the Suns will decline (I am really sorry for Nash), SAC and LAC will improve. In our division, we get to play with the older-and-older Spurs, the Mavs (who can get anyone, they'll always be crap), NOH (I think they will trade away CP3 and regret it later) and Memphis. Now with a 60-game Yao, I think clinching the No.1. in our division really feasible. With several new, dominant teams and us in the mix, I think that 50-win threashold will drop to 48 or even less wins, which should be in our reach. If we manage to get a "quality backup C", that we're in, with or without Bosh, book it. I prefer keeping and giving Hill time over getting "a quality backup C", but signing someone would surely kill some of the volatility.
we would not make the playoffs with bosh. 1.we would have to gut the bench to get him 2.bosh is injury prone,and would miss half the season 3.we are better now than if trade happened. 4.yes we can make playoffs now. 5.with a big trade at deadline we can be a contender
Without any adjustments or additions, this team will be a contender if: 1. Yao is healthy 2. AB continues to improve 3. CBud continues to improve 4. KMart gets his old efficiency back with health and comfort in Houston 5. Ariza accepts his 5th option role. This team can win it all...AS IS !!! We ARE a contender. DD
In a perfect world, Dirk, Amare, Boozer, and Gay all sign in the Easter Conference straight up, no S&T. Dirk is too much to ask for and Gay really doesn't matter, but I can totally see Amare and Boozer ending up in NY and NJ.
The problem is that we don't know whether we are contenders without Bosh until trade deadline. The question is: should we risk keeping Hill/Pat^2/Bud and seeing them develop (or NOT develop), or should we risk letting them go? If we e.g. keep Bud but he doesn't develop, we may miss out on the deadline AND now on Bosh. If we give Chase up in a package for Bosh, we may miss on his "real" trade value. One thing is certain: the current bench we have is dynamite. If they develop some more, we will be contenders because of our depth. If we get into the playoffs, teams with a marginally better starting lineup will surely tire out/lose the hard-fought advantage when our bench plays against their bench. We could have a HUGE edge over any bench in the NBA. How much better will we become with Bosh? I think getting him would result in a 60ish reg season performance, but we will have less matchup flexibility in the playoffs.
Almost EVERY championship team develops a superstar player through the draft. The Rockets just need to keep on drafting and develop those players. DD
Well, as far as I remember, the Celtics and the Lakers are exception. Of course the Lakers did develop Kobe more than a decade ago, but they could have easily signed him, it wouldn't matter for them. The same with Boston and Pierce. As I can see, those championship teams develop 1 superstar talent, and usually add some more via trades and the Memphis Grizzlies.
I definitely think we can compete for Championship with the current roster and Yao back. With Yao inside, we can at least give the Lakers some problem inside the paint. And as i was watching this year's Playoffs...teams that play against the Lakers were struggling making shots against them and Lakers were giving them plenty of time to just totally blow them out...and as i was watching... i am thinking...man if those teams have Aaron Brooks and Martin out there...they're not going to miss this easy wide open shots.
The Celtics developed Pierce and Rondo, and traded for Garnett and Allen. But the main man was Pierce, and now Rondo. The Lakers traded for Kobe at the draft, so essentially he was theirs from the jump. I think there is a little bit of luck involved......but you have to draft well to win in the NBA..... We got Yao Ming.....and we need one more of: AB, Hill and CBud or Taylor to become that 2nd. DD
I get what you are saying and I am also really fond of both Jordan Hill and Chase, but face it: LAL, MIA and BOS got superstar talent from trades to get to contender status. BOS and MIA essentially put all their eggs in one basket and the Lakers got lucky with Gasol. OK, BOS also developed Rondo, but during the Ch'ship campaign, Rondo was nowhere near the player he is now. And for Kobe: had he been drafted by GS or LAC, he would have whined until they traded him to LAL or somewhere he could get his ring. So yes, the Lakers got him for cheap, but I think had LAC drafted Kobe, LAL would be the same roster-wise, but this way they saved some cash.
Of course you add pieces, but almost all of them had a central piece first...mabye that is Yao for us? I don't know. DD
No, we're not. DM wouldn't be looking to improve the roster so drastically if this was a true notion.
Sure he would, it is his JOB to improve the team, every team tries to improve, even the world champions. The Rox are contenders if healthy...... Are they favorites, no.....but they are in the running. DD
