Can we have a serious discussion about Jeremy Lin?

I hate to say it, but IMO Lin just isn't that good. One hit wonder.

 

This IS our first year together, and our first time back in the playoffs, with a really young and inexperienced team. I mean, what do you expect? The Thunder was in this position 3-4 years ago.

 

LOWRY? FAT SHIET
AB? MIDGET
ALSTON? SKIP TO THE CENTRELINK
DRAGIC? PLAYOFF RUN CHOKE ON YOUR DYSON
BEVERLEY? FOUL MUCH DOE
LIN? DO YOU EVEN PG

 

Agreed on what he needs to work on, however...

Average and Mediocre (below average) have different connotations. Best just to use Hollinger's description: "A very good player"

Out of 344 players, Lin's is ranked 145:


143 Luol Deng, CHI 15.12
144 Glen Davis, ORL 15.09
145 Jeff Green, BOS 15.01
146 Jeremy Lin, HOU 14.94
147 Omer Asik, HOU 14.89
Jared Dudley, PHX 14.89
149 DeMar DeRozan, TOR 14.81
150 Corey Brewer, DEN 14.76

He's one behind Jeff Green from Boston and ahead of Omer Asik, DeRozen and Brewer. Fractions separate players and if you discount Lin's first couple of months he would be in the top tier. Its curious that Asik isn't getting the same kind of hate though he is on the same contract?!

 

The season's contradictions emerge:

"It's McHale's fault for letting him play" vs. "McHale never lets him play"

"The playoffs are a small sample size" vs. "Linsanity was a big sample size" (the Rox won twenty-two games in a row one year--what do you think of that twenty-two game sample size?)

"You gotta give minutes to a guy with a Lin-size contract" vs. "His contract and performance are very normal in the NBA"

As for this . . .

16th in the league among PG's? If there are 30 starting PG's, how good is #16?

The 16-23 foot range? You mean the range the Rockets specifically try to avoid shooting from because it is lowest efficiency?

Same jump shot percentage has different meaning depending on who is shooting from 3.

Why does this post cherry pick "since Dec." here, "since Feb." there, "16-23 ft." etc.?

Quick first step does not equal basketball player. Did you see Usain Bolt play in the celebrities game?

Did Mark Cuban "say" that with money? I was not aware of a contract offer.

Lin's all right, but currently he is not good enough to start for a contender.

 

i wonder if anyone's opinion on lin has been changed by any of these posts... confirmation bias seems to be the right term - we collect evidence to support what we already believe.

has anyone seen the clip of mark cuban debating skip bayless and SAS? he calls them out for saying things that can't be proved and just stir things up - i.e. lebron choked, the mavericks wanted it more, etc. it's great for tv, but doesn't tell half the story.

there're so many dynamics to a team/player's success, which makes it fun to discuss and speculate over. but with lin, the discussions usually turn into wild speculations from both sides. think about it... how would you go about proving that mchale hates lin? on the flip side, how would you prove that lin is scared? harden is more selfish than his teammates?

give this team another year. let 'em work out their weaknesses. let 'em learn from this year's mistakes.

 

ROFLMAO!!!

Excellent observation!

Lin is Harden but don't know if he can grow a beard at all. Maybe Chinese whiskers like the Drunken Master (if you know you Kung Fu). Now that'd be an awesome look for Linsanity 2.0!

 

I'm pretty sure I like Jeremy Lin.

I'm pretty sure I don't have to make an excuse for my take.

Good thread, though. At least we are trying to get this into the realm of Rafer Alston arguments...and all these Knicks fans can just go away.

 

Excellent point about confirmation bias.

Morey himself said that advanced statistics can give you most of the picture about a player but not 100%. There are many intangibles in team sport. Some people say Lin is fearless attacking the basket, some say he was gutless not coming back from surgery to play the Heat in game 4 last year. Similarly, in this playoff series, some called him weak for not playing through a muscle bruise, others called him stupid to play with the contusion. Statistics cannot tell that last 10% that is the character of a player and that's where perception bias comes in.

 

http://www.hoopdata.com/advancedstats.aspx

Hoopdata's Adjusted PER has him ranked at 123, which uses actual assisted/unassisted field goal data, instead of estimates, and includes charge numbers, which Jeremy is very good at. It also has him at 87th out of all players that get 25 minutes or more, so basically starters and 6th men who play against other premier players.

http://talkingpracticeblog.com/

Talking Practice uses a nice advanced stat called IPV and has him at 116 among all players, but accounting for all the minutes and games he's played, he has had the 70th highest impact.

And these numbers include the first month when he was coming off surgery, playing a new system other than what he practiced at training camp, and playing a combo guard role that he is obviously not comfortable with.

Also, in the 4 games without Harden, he's averaging like 22/7 against pretty damn good competition, going 2-2, with the Spurs game going into OT.

 

http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx?team=%&type=pg&posi=PG&yr=2012&gp2=0&mins=25

He was even better last year, when he 8th for PGs who got substantial minutes. When his knee is right, he is a very competent perimeter shooter, that's what the stats are saying.

 

Not correct. Stat. people have said so and if you look at the formula there is a positive beta weight for number of shots. Even Hollinger said so.

 

Thanks for the data and links Rocketfever!
I love advanced sport stats and would love to develop my own methods. I got 96% for my advanced stats class at uni... back in the day.

What these stats tell me is Lin is an above average player in the league and definitely not mediocre. His upside is what he showed during Linsanity in NY. But I feel he has some special quality that advance stats don't show - guts, determination, work ethic... I can quite say (and maybe thats my perception bias).

 

he shouldn't have played last night. If you can't give it your all, then you can only hurt the team.

 

It's clear pretty clear you didn't understand the motives behind my post, so I'll spell it out for you. MourningWood's original post claimed that Lin's a "subpar jump-shooter, arguably the worst of any perimeter player on the roster." Shots from the 16-23 ft range are generally jump shots, so I used that data to show that Lin's shooting percentage from that range is decent compared to other guards, not "subpar". Furthermore, according to NBA.com, Lin's jump shot percentage is 31.8%, with 59% of his jump shots coming from threes, whereas Harden's jump shot percentage is 32.0%, with 64% from three range. I used "since December" (a 67-game sample) and "since February" (a 34-game sample) because Lin was obviously still getting back into game shape at the beginning of the season after having knee surgery. With that in mind, are you going to continue defending MourningWood's claims?

MourningWood also claimed that Lin "does not have that explosive first step required to blow by defenders off the dribble" and that Lin's drives usually end up in a low percentage shot, or a dump-off to Harden or Parsons at the end of the shot clock. We've already established that Lin's first step is extremely explosive, contrary to MourningWood's claim. So then did you not read the part where I said that Lin's drives to the basket result in the Rockets scoring 1.32 points per possession and that his drives were as efficient as Tony Parker's?

 

He is getting better, he is smart, he will be fine with time.

He has weaknesses and strenghts, just like every other player.

He does need to sit out though, if he can't shoot or dribble, he needs to help the team by getting better.

DD

 

Agreed. I don't mind hurt players giving a shot, but coach should have pulled him a bit earlier knowing that he wasn't going to be productive. On the flip side, if he didn't play all the haters out there will be yapping about him not being "tough"...:grin:

 

This is all so funny. Kid drives the paint and takes a beating 82 games this year. Bloodied and not once did he raise his arms and slap the floor to complain. Not once did he say "look at me, look how hurt I am, look how wronged I am am", and some of you guys call him soft and timid. Tyson Chandler put him on his ass not once, not twice but at least 3 times during the second Knicks game and he was still in the paint. You think being loud, with a scowl, flashing gang signs and being in your face is a sign of toughness??? So is Areans tough cause he brought 4 guns to the locker room? and that other idiot Crittenden is in jail now - is that tough. You know nothing about toughness.

Having multiple kids with different baby mamas and running out on your offspring, is that tough or is it the guy that stays in the family tough? Yeah, thought so.

Being rejected your whole life (I am not saying his family rejected him, or education rejecting him, but in the most important part of his life basketball rejected him), fighting against small minded people in control of his destiny, and still standing and making it to the pinnacle (the NBA) doesn't take toughness??? A weak minded person would have ended up dead, on drugs or in prison already. But Jeremy seems still even keeled to me despite all that.

100% of you posters (including me) ain't as tough as Lin.

 

Among PGs he is 33rd based on criterias you used.

In that second list you posted there are 27 pg above lin including Raymond Felton and jason kidd, which makes me question how valid that list is.


Jeremy Lin has a lot of good games the problem is you can't expect it consistently. You have 38-7 game and then you have a game where he 4-14 with 4 turnovers. I am not expecting 38-7, but it would be nice if he could be more consistent.

 

Better to get some haters like what Derrick Rose is getting instead of having a negative impact on the team in an important game. Lin looked like this the entire time he was in.