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Can The Rockets Afford a 3rd Superstar and Chandler Parsons?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by crash5179, Jul 20, 2013.

?

What do you think the teams Payroll Budget will be?

  1. Up to the Salary Cap

    10.1%
  2. Up to the Tax Threshold

    24.6%
  3. Up to the Tax Apron

    29.7%
  4. Over the Tax Apron

    35.5%
  1. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    Absolutely they can and will if they can pull of a trade for LMA or a 3rd superstar. Les has shown a willingness to exceed the salary cap on an almost annual basis. He was generally right around the Luxury Tax Threshold during the Yao / TMac era and even exceeding the LT a few years ago, so I don't get where all of the Les stereotype of "not going over the cap comes from".

    Certainly Les is not going to let Daryl Morey go all Mikhail Prokhorov with the salary cap but he has commented that he has no issue paying the Luxury tax for the right player. This year the Luxury Tax Threshold is 71.7 million dollars so at the very least Daryl Morey can spend that much. That is an increase of 1.4 million from the previous year so I think we can safely assume that it will increase at least a minimum of 1.4 in 2014 as well. That would make the Luxury Tax Threshold in 2014 (when Chandler Parsons is likely to get his raise) an estimated 73.1 million dollars.

    The Tax Apron, which is 4 million dollars past the Tax Threshold, is a realistic budget for Daryl Morey to spend on the cap IMO. That would give Daryl Morey 77.1 million dollars to spend on the Rockets salary in 2014. Why a budget at the Tax Apron? Because once you exceede the budget the team does not just pay the additional tax, the team also becomes handcuffed with what type of moves the team can make.

    - the team would loose the bi-annual exception
    - the mid level exception would be greatly reduced
    - the team can only send out a sign and trade player they can not recieve a sign and trade player. (They can receive a player currently under contract).

    For this scenario I am using LaMarcus Aldridge since he is the player most commonly talked about as the 3rd superstar. Here are the salaries in millions of D12, LMA, Harden and CP12 (assuming his raise starts at 10 mil a season) in 2014:

    D12 - 21.4
    Harden - 14.7
    LMA - 16.0
    CP25 - 10 est.

    Total of the four equals 62.1 million dollars in 2014. Assuming the Tax Apron of 77.1 million dollars is Daryl Morey's budget, that leaves him 15 million dollars on the rest of the roster. Assuming both Lin and Asik are casualties of any trade for a 3rd superstar, the remaining roster looks like this in 2014:

    TJone - 1.6
    DMo - 1.5
    PBeverley - .9
    Cisco - 1.3
    Canaan - .8
    BJ Young - .5 est.
    Covington - .5 est
    Casspi - .9
    Williams - .9
    GSmith - 1.2 est.
    Brooks - 1.1 est.

    That is 11.3 million in salary plus the 62.1 million for D12, LMA, Harden & CP25 leaves you with a payroll of 73.4 million dollars. If Daryl Morey's budget is the Tax Apron of 77.1 est then the Rockets would have an extra 3.7 million to upgrade the Roster, give players like Cisco an increase or possibly retain someone like Greg Smith as a restricted free agent. The Rockets could also use that money to sign one of their overseas players like Papanikolaou or Sergio Llull to a contract if they are ready to come over.

    With a team payroll budget at the Tax Apron, Les will have to pay an additional 1.5 dollars for every dollar over the Tax Threshold. Assuming Daryl Morey uses every dollar of the estimated team budget, that is an extra 6 million in taxes. That would mean Les has to pay 83.1 million dollars for a payroll budget of 77.1 million dollars.

    So I guess it comes down to, do you believe Les when he said he is willing to go into the Luxury Tax for a championship contending team? I absolutely believe him. It is also good to remember that frequently during the Yao / TMac era, the Rockets started the season in Luxury Tax territory but Daryl Morey was always able to make some trade deadline deal to get the Rockets below the threshold and saving the Rockets from having to pay the tax. why is that important? Because it gives Les the confidence to allow Daryl Morey the ability to use tools like the MLE to exceede the apron in the summer since he has shown the ability to make moves to get back below it at the trade deadline.

    Another thing to remember is that DM is willing to use Europe and the D-league to find good roll players like Beverley and Smith which goes a long way towards keeping the cap down and preventing the team from getting locked into to a bad salary on a player that can no longer contribute.
     
    #1 crash5179, Jul 20, 2013
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2013
    3 people like this.
  2. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    Can't see Parsons getting 10mill.

    He's a nice player, but Morey wouldn't splurge 10 million on a nice player. Look at the contract Lowry got - seems more like the kind of window.
     
  3. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    I'm not going to argue that point but for the purpose of discussing if the Rockets can afford 3 superstars and Parsons, I thinks it's more valuable to estimate his salary on the high side.
     
  4. kaitanuva

    kaitanuva Member

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    Les would be unwise to not go into luxury tax if a third superstar presents himself.
     
  5. Raven

    Raven Member

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    If Parsons' game continues to improve, he'll get offers worth more than ten per. He's already good, and there's no reason to believe that he won't become very good. Does he have the potential to be very very good? Ask me in six or seven months. :)
     
  6. Sydeffect

    Sydeffect Member

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    Parsons I presume will be getting around $8 million. But yeah they definetly can afford Parsons and a possible third superstar.
     
  7. WNBA

    WNBA Member

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    Luxury Tax is the upper limit.

    Lin, Asik, Parsons will be replaced by cheaper role players.

    The third star thing is just for talk, it will never happen.
     
  8. LikeMike

    LikeMike Contributing Member

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    Well, look at Batum - I think they are kinda compareable and Batum got 11 million on average. Parsons is really important to this team and I don't think Les or Morey will let him go. And if it costs 10 million per year, they will pay it. But I do hope we get him for around 8 million...
     
  9. Sydeffect

    Sydeffect Member

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    Batum's overpaid
     
  10. conquistador#11

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    no offense wnba, but when players have potential like those 3, the logic of replacing them with cheap players doesn't make sense. In the NFL, because of the shorter career span, you can get away with it. But in the nba, you just have to take a deep breath, suck it up and realize what league your gm'ing in.
    What about when the cheaper player gets to parsons level? you're also going to let him go and holp to catch lightning in a plastic cup once again? As long as you don't hand out money to chuckers or players with bad work ethic then the "nice" players should get paid accordingly.
     
  11. LikeMike

    LikeMike Contributing Member

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    I am not arguing here - but he got that offer and chances are the more like able and more marketing able Parsons would at least get the same offer.
     
  12. Rocketman1234

    Rocketman1234 Member

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    If batum got 46 million, I have no doubt that parsons can get more
     
  13. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    Great question to ask about 3 stars on this Rockets team. I asked BimaThug that exact question in his recent salary thread.

    crash5179, really great post and something that really needed to be broken down. I am glad you erred on the high side with Parsons. I believe he will end up getting a contract probably starting at ~ 8M.

    Don't forget in your analysis as we move forward from 2014 the cap holds of future 1st round picks and potential uses of the MLE. From your breakdown, it shows the Rockets can add the 3rd star and pay parsons. But to be able to squeeze in those 1st round picks and potential use of the MLE (maybe only once) Morey will have to get tricky.

    I totally agree the TRUE number/barrier for the Rockets is the APRON. And being in LT territory is only a HUGE issue when faced with the "Repeater tax."
     
    #13 Deuce, Jul 20, 2013
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2013
  14. Houst0ne

    Houst0ne Member

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    It's his money you can't speak on him
     
  15. Houst0ne

    Houst0ne Member

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    Parsons isn't on Batum's level yet. Batum is a unique player.
     
  16. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    and Chandler will be too in a couple years. And we should gladly overpay him what the market says he is worth, because he will have given us four years of criminally underpaid value. In addition to being our (very successful) franchise mouthpiece I might add.

    Chandler is untouchable right now. If Morey can't tell you that, then Les Alexander will.
     
  17. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    For LMA's 16 large, I would rather have two 8 large players, one being Parson eventually.
     
    1 person likes this.
  18. wreck

    wreck Contributing Member

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    If given the choice.... LMA or Parsons...Which would you guys take???
     
  19. DaGreatest

    DaGreatest Member

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    Batum's a beast, people are underrating him severely. Or didn't see him playing against us this past season

    When Batum's playing his best ball, he resembles a superstar. Good to great player is Batum.
     
  20. DaGreatest

    DaGreatest Member

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    The former. No brainer, you just have to think without your homer cap.
     

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