Can Texas go to Fiesta Bowl if Miami and Ohio State both lose 1 game?

The Cat, I think WSU has one more loss in them.

 

Right now there are 4 points between Georgia and Texas. If two of Miami, OSU and OU lose a game, Georgia may be able to jump up to #3 in the polls. They currently average 7.5. That would make up 4.5 points right there.

It isn't likely...but it is possible.

 

Yeah, but in that scenario (and that's assuming WSU and Iowa also lose), Texas would move up two spots to #2, and also move up in the computers. It isn't like Texas would stay stationary while Georgia moved up.

 

True...TX gains 2 points. GA gains 4.5 points. GA would go up in the computers too. GA will also gain in strength of schedule.

But the poll average alone would still make up 2.5 of the 4 point difference.

 

of course would georgia be allowed to move past OU/miami and possibly osu just for one loss? they'd all have 1 and ou/miami would probably get to stay ahead of georgia (and i would say rightfully so) if they lost. of course it all depends on who they lose to and how bad but i'll assume it's close and to a good team.

 

Miami could lose to Va. Tech. That's a good team...but they'd be losing later in the season and to an opponent who isn't a lot better than UF. GA should have a better strength of schedule and more quality wins. OU is a much closer case.

You may be right. All I am saying is that Georgia has just as much chance of making it as Texas does.

 

Miami could lose to Va. Tech. That's a good team...but they'd be losing later in the season and to an opponent who isn't a lot better than UF. GA should have a better strength of schedule and more quality wins. OU is a much closer case.

You may be right. All I am saying is that Georgia has just as much chance of making it as Texas does.

I think Georgia has a huge uphill battle. In order to make it, they'd not only need two unbeatens to lose (like Texas does), but they'd somehow need to jump past Iowa and Washington State in the polls (either with those two losing, or just by impressing the voters). Plus, they need Miami and OSU to fall really far. Certainly Miami would fall 3 or 4 spots, but would they fall 5 or 6? A lot of it depends on the timing of the various losses by all the teams involved. I just don't think they can claw their way that far back, but you never know. I didn't think Texas would get back to #4 this quickly either.

If it does come down to OU vs a bunch of 1-loss teams, I think Texas can make a legitimate argument that they are the true #2. If Texas really was #2 and OU #1, then Texas would have gone 11-1 (as they would in this scenario) losing to OU.

If, for example, Georgia was #2, they should have beaten Florida. If Iowa was really the #2 team, they should have beaten ISU, etc. Texas is the only team that can say, if they were the #2 team, they beat everyone they should have and only lost to the one team that is #1.

 

Excellent point. It's for that reason that last weekend was so important. There's still a pretty severe anti-Texas bias in the media, so if we were at number 5 or 6, I feared that a loss by OU or Miami would still have them ahead of us in the polls. The only way that could happen now is if a loss dropped them from 1/2 to 3, and there's no way that happens.

By the way, did anyone hear Trev "I hate UT" Alberts last night on sportscenter? Last week it was "fiction" that we would beat Nebraska in Lincoln. This week it's "fiction" that we're the best one-loss team in the nation. According to Trev, Notre Dame is better because they beat themselves (in a home game against an unranked team), and Texas is worse because they couldn't beat the number one team in the nation (in a game where you could also say they beat themselves).

Nice analysis, Trev.

 

I can't pencil in ATM and Tech as automatic wins right now. Yes, we've beaten better teams, but we're gonna get both their teams best shots and funny things happen in Lubbock (on and off the field). With the ATM game, the better team usually wins, but I throw records out the window.

 

A few words about The University of Iowa Hawkeyes.

First of all, GO HAWKS!! WOO HOO!!

Ahem. Sorry, it got away from me.

You can count them out of the national title game. We let Iowa State slip away from us (our QB had a hand injury, our safety was knocked out of the game, good-bye victory).

Right now we're hoping Ohio State can manage to lose to somebody just so we can get into the Rose Bowl, but even that seems a far stretch.

Our last two games: one of the opponents is Northsuckstern, so good-bye BCS points.

The so-far unbeatens are those that deserve a shot at the title game. But ya'll are right: one or two teams could lose and re-shuffle the deck.

Personally, I'd love Ohio State to get into the title game because I'm as much an Iowa Hawkeye homer as a Rockets homer (ROX + TX + IA = ROXTXIA; looks like a bad license plate, hmn?) But good luck to you UT fans. I did almost go to the University of Texas.

 

Actually, they don't, for several reasons. First of all, Georgia has a harder schedule ahead of them. If nothing else, they've got to win the SEC championship which isn't exactly a cake walk.

Secondly, even though the Longhorns play easier teams, the people they've already beaten are only going to improve. At least 2 of 3 of Iowa St., Kansats St., and Nebraska will be ranked higher than they are now. I doubt that any of those teams lose more than 1 more game.

Georgia is very unlikely to have a harder SoS at the end of the year than UT. Even if they do, the odds are very, very low that they're going to leap frog them in the polls. So, any SoS advantage they get will be insufficient to put them ahead of Texas.

To sum, they:

1. Are more likely to lose.
2. Will finish with a weaker schedule.
3. Will not leap frog Texas in the polls if both go unbeaten.

If 2 teams ahead of Texas lose, and Texas wins out, Texas plays for the title game. Nearly automatic.

 

anyone who wants Texas in the Fiesta should NOT be hoping for an ou loss in any of their remaining games.

Texas' best case for the Fiesta relies on ou making it through the big 12 championship undefeated.

 

If OU loses, that hurt's UT's SOS, right?

Would love a shot at OU, even if we lose.

 

it hurts our strength of schedule. it adds a team that has beaten us into the pool of 1-loss competitors. and it takes away our logical argument [the one major articulated].

plus, if you're a Texas fan, the only National Championship left winning this year is the one in which we beat ou.

there's NO way that Texas and ou would both be in the Fiesta with one loss.

 

Possible but dont expect ohio state to lose. They seem to be crusing through their shedule. Their toughest game is a overrated michigan team. Iowa rolled over them expect osu to do the same. And you should expect another texas loss to tech or atm espically if osu miami or ou drop a game before those games take place. texas can not win the real big games. they almost were handed a place in the rose last year it might happen again this year to but they wont take advangate of it they never do

 

I agree at this point a loss for OU is mixed. However, it would not hurt UTs SOS much because they would have lost to a team UT beat. Since UT didn't beat OU, it isn't like they get bonus points for that game.

What do ya'll think about a 1 loss Texas team versus a 1-loss OU team? Personally, I think OU will get in every case but maybe 1. Say KSU runs the table, CU loses twice, and KSU beats OU in the championship game (the bigger the margin--for pollsters sake--the better). You also have say 3 of the following teams pick up a 2nd loss--WSU, Iowa, Georgia, Vech, ND. Also assume either Miami or OSU gets a loss. Then you have something like: UT in polls is like #2, OU in the polls is like #4 and KSU maybe around #6-7. OU still gets a big bonus for beating Texas, but now Texas gets much of it back with the KSU victory.

Outside a scenerio like above I think a 1-loss and Big12 championship game visiting OU team will probably get in a 1-loss Texas team. It really sucks, by Texas losing to OU they practically lost 2 games in one.

On other note: Miami has 3 losable games left as does OSU. OSU is no sure thing this weekend, or at Illinios. Purdue easily could have beaten Iowa, Michigan or Nueter Dame--three close losses for them in which they made lots of mistakes. They are playing this week at Purdue with Purdue's season on the line, I expect the line to be less than a touchdown and a field goal, maybe even just 1 touchdown. This game is every bit as dangerous as Michigan at OSU.

 

Wishful thinking on your part. Texas has gone through it's toughest part of the schedule and they just won 3 big games. Winning on the road at KSU and NU (73-2 at home, the 2 to Texas) is no small task.

atm or tech could give UT trouble, but we've already beaten 3 teams that are better. Well 4 if you want to count OSU.

You're an Aggie, aren't you?

 

There's no doubt an OU loss is good for Texas.

Would it hurt the logical argument? Maybe, but the BCS is determined by statistics, not arguments. Would it hurt the SOS? Probably. But, here's the thing. If OU loses (let's use this weekend at A&M as an example), we will jump them in the polls. There's NO way that if a team ranked 1 or 2 loses to an unranked opponent that it only drops to 3. It's just not going to happen. The effect of an OU loss on UT in the SOS and computer rankings, at the most, is about a combined 0.20. The effect of an OU loss in the polls is a full point.

Would we beat ahead of OU in the BCS with a loss? That's hard to say. But, there's no doubt it's good for our BCS standing if they lose a game. Now, do I want them to lose two? That I don't know about. If only one of Miami and OSU lose, then definitely. But if both of them lose, as I expect, I only want OU to lose once.

I think we would win the Big XII game, but whoever we played would not be a cupcake by any stretch. We all saw the results of playing that extra game last year.

 

BTW...all of this when I thought that we had heard the last of Championship Longhorn Talk for another year.

It almost sounds like calls to Jim Rome from Salt Lake City every year.

 

We could talk about "the new coach at Texas A&M" instead if you'd like.

But since Texas is three easy wins away from being 11-1 and in contention for the BCS championship game, I'd rather stick to the subject at hand.