Not sure about percentages, but yes as I mentioned earlier the other possibility is Jalen craps the bed to start the season, and simply poor play gets him either out of the lineup, or traded. I didn't really want to think about that though because it could be a pretty bad setback for the Rockets from a team/asset building standpoint. The Rockets either need Jalen to at least stay productive-ish at times, or break out. They have to either pay him (biggest gamble), trade him for real assets (safest gamble but setback from winning in the near term), or move him/bench him for not much of anything (worst case). He's the #2 pick in the draft, and due for a huge payday, and endorsement of an NBA franchise as one of their pillars. All of that's why I'm pointing at Brooks as a much more likely player to get moved to the bench if we assume one of Amen, Tari, or Cam explodes onto the scene. Yes they could simply beat out Jalen with more superior play, but the fact of the matter is I don't see that happening at least the first half of this season because of the contract situation, and decisions that have to be made that could have lasting ramifications for this franchise.
Jalen Green is 4th among the Rockets starters based on this metric. So I am making like-to-like comparison. Do you have any more caveats you want to add for why his numbers are so low for everything except that one little piece you claim to be clearly showing how great he is?
And then one little piece is literally ten offensive efficiency. And the way the on/off impact percentiles are distributed, a bunch of players bunched in 30-40% perctile where Green is. Is Cam Whitmore from the Bench at 40% percentile mean he has better impact? No because that impact is with him playing against opposing bench units mostly. I believe our team defense was great especially with our bench units. This means a average to slightly below average defender in Green this season paying against opposing staters will have a inflated negative impact on defense when the bench units not only is full of veteran high quality defenders but those guys play opposing bench units. But it's fun to how you trivialize twm offensive efficiency, probably the most important need this team needs to improve on to make another leap. And you miss my entire point. Why does Jalen Green who has one of the more bad individual high volume scoring efficiencies in the league who leads the team in usage have the second best impact on offense only behind FVV? Why is that?
Interesting way to look at it. Let me plug in my own numbers and change the criteria slightly. Jalen trending down or staying the same: 75% One of those guys significant improvement: 80% Jalen down or staying the same plus other guys improving: 60% Jalen down plus or staying the same and other guys not improving: 15% (worst scenario for us) Jalen up plus other guys improving: 20% (best scenario for us) Jalen up plus other guys not improving: 5%
Are these percentages from your bumhole What is interesting about people making up arbitrary percentages? @Easy this applies to you also. From your *******? Is that where you got the analysis for these percentages?
I did not claim that these are analysis. I already said that these are "blind guesses" but I believe they are not unreasonable. Nobody really know the probability. I am sure you have your guesses all the time. You might not have spelled them out quantitatively like I did. May be you think Jalen trending down or not improving is 0%. Are your guesses more reasonable than mine or others'? Who knows.
My estimated guesses. Thought that was pretty obvious. The majority of posts here are arbitrary (not based in fact), whether that is expressed as an opinion or percentages. What is interesting about the need to use the word bumhole? Just ran out of other words to describe posts you don't agree with?
People generally try to give some reasoning to their guesses of the future. Hence from "the bumhole". If you expressed your criteria for how you got to those percentages I would say it's from your brain.
This board has turned into 1919 era Soviet Union and we're all peasants trying to make the case for who's the best guy to support. Who's a Leninist? Who's a Trotskyite? Who's better, Stalin or Zinoviev? Did Kamenov make a move today and is he now better than Zinoviev? Where is Bubnov vacationing? What do the workout videos say about Sokolnikov and Krestinsky? Fortunately, we're just basketball fans and our guys are just basketball players instead of geopolitical actors driven by a warped ideology and Cam isn't going to have Green killed with an icepick, right? Right? (I can, though, see the merit in thinking of Silas as Rasputin.) So, just roll with it and enjoy the team and the process.
Often times, i think we all lose sight of the fact that we all want the Rockets to be the best team possible. We all want to win championships. We all want the team to have the best possible future. If you disagree with any of the prior statements, go ph*ck yourself. But certainly, we disagree vehemently of how to reach those goals.
Despite my liking of stats, I also form many opinions based on feeling. I feel tomorrow will be a better day than today. I feel our spiritual essence is not understood at all. I feel like I wouldn't want to be anyone else other than myself. I feel the odds of Cam Whitmore turning into a consistent, dependable player are more likely than unlikely. And yes, I feel the odds of Jalen Green turning into a consistent, dependable player are more unlikely than likely. I have lots of opinions that don't depend on any kind of reasoning or criteria.
I think they would trade Brooks before benching him. This due to the fact that he was brought here along with Fred to establish a tough, defensive minded, and professional culture. He has also been a starter all his career and from an optics standpoint you wouldn’t want to demote a guy like that while diminishing his market value on top of the awkwardness of the situation.
Agreed that Brooks likely will be traded if any of the young guys deserve to start over him. We already have a bunch of wing players who need to have minutes. If Brooks doesn't serve the purpose of winning more games than the kids, then there is no purpose for him to stay. Might as well get something in return in a trade. But my worry is that Stone seems to be very hesitant when it comes to trading real players. (He looks competent in managing draft capitals.) Eric Gordon, for example, was traded about 1.5 seasons too late. So was John Wall.
Probably because roster construction was at its infancy back then where the team could head in so many directions because we had hardly any young promising talent at the time and the team had no direction besides "be bad enough to get lottery talent". Uncertainty can lead to holding on to cards too long. Now there is a pretty clear direction for roster construction. The roster is full of young core worthy players ready to compete now so it's more clear what players need to go. Yes I understand this includes Jalen if he doesn't show up next season also. Basically Stone has a more clear view of what the future team that is going to actually going to content looks like which makes it easier to make decisions.
Brooks is going to have a hard time beating back Tari, Amen and Cam for SF minutes. Tari had a higher impact last season. Amen is dramatically better at finishing, transition and rebounding. Cam is going to be by far the best scorer of the bunch. I think by the time the deadline comes we may try to trade him for a late first rounder and an expiring contract from a contender. His contract is so reasonable from next summer onwards.
Ya if he's traded I doubt the Rockets will be looking for a rotational piece in return. Just mainly draft capital. This team has too many players that need minutes already. Brooks being traded would mainly because this team needs to shorten its rotation which is at about 10 now which I think is too much. We have 7 young guys who all need at least 20 minutes. Ideally FVV and Adams would be the only two vets that get regular rotation minutes this season.
@Easy this applies to you also. From your *******? Is that where you got the analysis for these percentages?[/QUOTE] lol percentages Perhaps he was playing hardball as he wanted a first round pick which he got from Clippers for Whitmore. Wall was likely difficult to move with that contract.
I remember there were reports/rumors that teams were offering FRP for Gordon. Stone refused, waited another season, got no better offer than the Clippers one.
