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Cam Smith: The Aircraft Carrier

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Htown Legend, Feb 25, 2025.

  1. Marshall Bryant

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    I'm always reminded that it's not always about his makeup when I think of Dickie Thon. Things happen that change the trajectory. And even now, expectations of McCullers have been affected for 3 mostly absent seasons. Everyone hopes he is back, but that dance card is pretty suspect at this point.
     
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  2. GOATuve

    GOATuve Member

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    Very true. I don't think we can count on Lance anymore unfortunately
     
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  3. No Worries

    No Worries Member

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    The Astros are building Chas’s trade value.
     
  4. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    This is ridiculous.

    I live Cam, and think he is going to fill the spot Alex had as my favorite player but he isn't an instictive RF yet
     
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  5. Marshall Bryant

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    It takes time to become instinctive. But he's off to a great start.
     
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  6. conquistador#11

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    Chas and Jake were the ones giving Cam an iced water shower during his interview with Julieta. Team players both of them.
     
  7. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    I agree with this.

    And I feel that he will eventually he very good. I have even had passing thoughts about wondering how he would do as an Aaron Judge type CF.

    But at this point Chas is still the far superior fielder and is a better choice to protect a lead late in games. As long as defense is 100% the priority.
     
  8. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    Chas a well above average outfielder. Someone that can play all the outfield positions as a plus defender. I honestly think he should be the 4th outfielder and take every rep cam, Jake and Altuve aren't taking. Dubon should be used only used as an infield backup.
     
  9. mvpcrossxover

    mvpcrossxover Member

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    It was chas and yainer.
     
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  10. conquistador#11

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    Point being, you need guys like that on a roster. No ego from Chas
     
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  11. Nick

    Nick Member

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    Was brought up in other forums, but if you're going to get a possible extension out of Crane, would be either in your first or second year (presuming you're showing promise).

    Cam and Hunter currently fit that profile.
     
  12. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    Hunter is a Boras client. He isn't going to sign an extension unless it's feeaking huge
     
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  13. Nick

    Nick Member

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    So is Altuve. So was JV.

    And yes, extensions are designed to be big enough to entice a player's interest... and if you look at the value of retaining him 3-4 years beyond FA for whatever contract values are now (if you presume a player is going to be elite for at least 8 years), it makes a lot of financial sense for even the small market teams (let alone middle to upper middle).

    It also makes sense for the player as it guarantees them at least a 3-4 year big money track if they posisbly get injured... and if they stay healthy (and are still elite), they can still sign another extension or get elite money in FA as still relatively young (like Bregman did).
     
  14. Rvo384

    Rvo384 Member

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    Dusty won a World Series and never got swept in his time here like Joe.
     
  15. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Good comp. Healthy Correa with less defensive value is a good 80th percentile realistic comp.
     
  16. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    There are so many factors to consider, but YES Scott Boras is one of them.

    I think there are others that are more important though

    Player factors:
    1. How much money have I made/do I have if my career were to end now?
    2. How long do I need to risk my career ending before getting life changing money?
    3. What % of my potential/probable earnings does this contract represent?
    4. How old will I be or what are my chances of getting another contract when this one ends?
    5. Is this where I want to be beyond my current controllable time? How likely is this organization to trade me during the contract?
    Team factors:
    1. How many years are we committing to?
    2. How much will the AAV increase during the previously controllable years and how does that impact the roster?
    3. How likely is this player to remain productive for the length of the contract?
    4. What is this player's injury risk?
    5. Is there still additional upside that may increase the value of the contract to the team?
    6. Is this player a positive in the organization/community?
    Just off the top of my head. I'm sure there are many more.
     
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  17. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    I think this is true, but there are still factors in Houston's favor.

    1. Hunter was not an early draft pick or high cost international FA. Including 2025 he has made just over $3M which is on the cusp but not quite enough to be able to live off of, considering taxes/fees and he still has 50+ years of life expectancy.
    2. Since the Astros are not interested in long term commitments, he will still have lots of earning power/time after adding 2-3 years before FA (age 32-33 instead of 30) *I think age regression devaluation for pitchers starts 2-3 years after pisition players.
    Let's say Hunter gets the same amount as Corbin Burnes for his 3 arbitration years (approx $32M) and they decide to give him a 2 year extension adding $50M for those 2 years, and they divide the salary evenly over the 5 seasons

    He is instantly protected from injury by guaranteeing $82M instead of getting about $6.5M arb salary and risking a potentially career ending injury.

    He still has quite a bit of earning power, being a FA at age 32. Blake Snell just signed a 5yr / $182M contract at age 32. In the past 10 years, 5 SP have signed $100M+ contracts at 32 or later. 10 have signed for $75M+.

    The Astros get a TOR SP for 5 years at $16.4M AAV

    I think there is a chance Hunter/Boras would go for this, but I thinknit needed to happen before Hunter got to arbitration.

    Now, unless he gets hurt, Hunter can reasonably expect to make $5M+ next year so the need isn't as strong.

    The Astros could have done this same contract over 6 years instead of 7. Giving Hunter $11.7M for 2025 when otherwise, he would still be making less than $1M.

    They would still only he committed through his age 31 season but in return for taking an extra year if injury risk, the AAV would be $11.7M for 6 years instead $16.4M for 5.
     
    #517 IdStrosfan, Apr 19, 2025
    Last edited: Apr 19, 2025
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  18. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    Sign Cam to a 10 yr / $132M extension before 2026. For his ages 23-32 seasons.

    Ronald Acuna also had 5 years of control remaining when he signed a 10yr / $100M contract for his age 20-29 seasons.

    This is a big risk, as Cam is only semi-proven and still has some growing pains ahead, but every year they wait, the higher the price goes up and the less incentive Cam has to make the deal.

    He us currently set to hit FA at 28 and if he meets his potential, the Astros will need to completely change their philosophy to keep him.
     
  19. raining threes

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    His defense has really surprised/impressed me.
     
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  20. raining threes

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    I'm thinking better than Werth. Better swing, although both are/will be very good defensively.
     
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