How sad is that? Chuck Hayes is the starting PF...that is NOT good.....he is a nice energy player off the bench, but as a starter, we need more size and abilities at that spot. DD
If we have the nerve to give Swift the MLE, why don't we have the nerve to give Amir the MLE? I say, get it done. Offer 4 million leaving us 1.5 mil to sign a another scrub PF
Gater, what does it tell you if Detroit is willing to offer that without any potential suitors? It tells me that they believe in Amir........ 3 years too, they will have Bird rights.... I wonder why Morey is not at least upping the ante? DD
This Amir kid might worth the gamble but I don't see Moneyball pull the trigger, this isn't typical moneyball deal. And to pay a kid with almost no NBA experience the same money as Hayes earns is not a good way to balance the team, he isn't an immediate help anyway. I still wish we could get him though.
If Detroit thought they were going to lose him, would the be willing to do a sign and trade so they can get something in return?Maybe the Rockets could offer Bonzi and Sura. I wonder if they are still interested in Bonzi?
Not to give less credit, but Detroit believed in Darko also, more-so then they believed in Carmello. Have faith in the Moneyball
DaDa - My 2 cents... Joe Dumars has built an NBA championship team by having an eye for talent (Tayshaun Prince, Maxiell) and not being afraid to take a calculated risk (Rasheed, McDyess, Webber). The fact that Dumars wants to hold on to Johnson tells me they (the Pistons mgmt) believes he has an upside and he can be used as leverage or a cushion for the individual situations of Rasheed, CWebb and Dyce. I never felt the Rockets had any real interest in Johnson. Pursuing Johnson IMHO goes against the primary tenent of $Ball...don' over pay. That's why I keep making the sarcastic remark of fans dreaming about Rashard, talking about Amir and getting nothing close (Brian Skinner). At some point, someone (Les?) has to take a lead role and say...I know what the $Balls are...now how much does talent cost me? I'm sure I'll get reprimanded by all of the well-respected posters but...at some point, you have to have enough vision to not just avoid over paying but to recognize genuine talent. IOW, $Ball is excellent at looking backwards...I severly question how well it can look forwards. Johnson is a case in point.
rockets offer the full mle,. detroit match (as they are indicating) 7 days after the 11th. rocket potentially miss out on any other free agents if there are no trades.
That's what we did when we got Landry at #31. In thin shoes, Landry is slightly taller than Ike Diogu(MrButtocks) and slightly shorter than Alex Johnson & Lawrence Roberts(thumbs). Don't get me wrong, I think having Amir Johnson along with Landry and Hayes would be great. I just don't like paying Potential 3 times as much as Proven.
I went back to the 2000 draft and looked at each year. It was an entirely subjective and unscientific process, but I looked at each guy who was drafted for 'potential' with no regard for current skils, and they were more often than not busts. Guys like Darius Miles, Jerome Moiso, Kwame Brown, DeSagana Diop, Nikoloz Tskitishvili, etc etc were all drafted because of their potential, and were not considered ready right away. Of course there are exceptions, like Dwight Howard but they are just that, exceptions. Being incredibly generous, I would describe the odds on pure potential guys as being no greater than 50%. Great upside potential seems to be a polite way to say he has no skills at all right now. In fact, as I am watching NBA TV right now, they are saying the exact same thing. BTW, if people aren't watching, Marco Belinelli is going to be awsome based on his Summer League performances.
We are not really taking a chance or risk on Landry. Hes a 2nd round draft pick without a guaranteed contract, he will mostly likely get the minimum once we pickup some free agents through the MLE. The only thing we lose if hes a bust is the person who would have been drafted in his place, whom most likely would have been a bust too, and his minimum salary. So Landry is pretty much risk free.
Ok, here we go one more time: 1) Kevin Pritchard and Danny Ferry played in the NBA. They have a basketball background. 2) Daryl Morey has no basketball background. If he's not doling out $Ball info...what other value does he have (beyond answering the phone)? Yes Kevin Pritchard played college ball and Danny Ferry was an NBA player, that's true. But that also doesn't mean that Morey can't be a good GM and talent evaluator because he didn't play in college. How is Morey that much different that Bryan Colangelo? Colangelo never played college or NBA ball. He got hired by the Suns for one reason...his dad owned the team. After 4 years he became the Suns GM and has been very successful. He's moved on to Toronto and he's now considered one of the top GMs in the league. He's even been named NBA executive of the year. See the similarities? Hired to NBA job with no real basketball experience, 4 years later becomes GM, sound familiar? 4) How does one derive a $Ball value for Amir Johnson with so little PT? Seems to me he'd be waaayyyyy under the $Ball radar. Again...emphasis on Morey's "build via trade" statement. First of all, a moneyball analysis isn't limited to NBA games. One of the success factors for a GM's evaluation criteria is to identify the traits that will translate well from one level to the next. For example, Billy Beane determined that a player that draws alot of walks in college will most likely draw alot of walks in the majors. So, if you're evaluation criteria is a good one, then you can take a players performance at one level (NDBL) and project how they'll do at a higher level (NBA). Also, Morey or any other GM doesn't strictly go be stats in evaluating players. Morey himself has said the exact same thing and it's been posted here on CF.NET, but you chose to ignore that because it makes it easier for you to portray Morey as a non-basketball, stats only guy who totally disregards traditional scouting. If you like I'll repost all of Morey's quotes which say that stats are only part of the process and that traditional basketball scouting is also a big part. As much as you'd like to portray Morey as a guy that has no use for traditional scouting, that's simply not true. More than likely if the Rockets do like Amir Johnson, it's because their scouts think that he's got huge upside.
Potentially, they do, but I don't think many people at or around the Full MLE situation will be signing until they are sure that all the teams that can offer MORE than the MLE are out of the running. And once that happens every team has an MLE available so once the player finds out that is all they can get, IMO, they will jockey for the best situation for them..... So, if I am correct offereing the full MLE or a large chuck to Amir would only delay for 7 days but not hurt the team's overall chances of getting anyone....IMO. I see, so essentially you are saying that Money ball's job is to find low cost players that are high efficiency and that by the very nature of spending a good portion of the MLE, it is against Moneyball's fundamental nature. Interesting. DD
i just remember seeing amir johnson in the dunk contest when he was in high school and the boy can fly. he was fast and athletic. now that he's tall he most likely kept all that speed and could be like a better version of cato or some other athletic pf.
OK...let's go one more time.... 1) BOTH Kevin Pritchard and Danny Ferry played in the NBA. So you are wrong in stating only Ferry has NBA experience. 2) Does not playing or coaching in the NBA "doom" Morey as a GM? You are obviously good with numbers. What's the ratio of success to experience versus total novice? I'm serious here...what other total basketball novice has been a trail blazing NBA success? Colangelo and....? Jerry Buss's kid...? Sure, you can find an obscurity like Colangelo...then give us the ratio of Colangelo's to the rest of the league. You are too smart too try to pass of Colangelo as the rule. You know darned well he's the exception. And for all we know, Colangelo uses vision and NOT $Ball. 3) I for one am sick and tired of hearing about Billy Beane. Forget all the mumbo-jumbo...what in hell has Billy Beane's principles accomplished in the NBA? Was $Ball the reason the Spurs picked Duncan? How about Dr Buss using the $Balls to go after Shaq when he was with the Magic? Can you quantitavely provide us with how Joe Dumars built the Pistons with $Ball? I don't care how much of a minority I am...I'm sick and bloody tired of hearing how big an impact Battier's $Ball charges made. All of the $Ball mumbo-jumbo didn't go any futher than Rudy Gay and Swift could have. If the Rockets break out of the first round this year, it'll be attibutable to talent like Mike James and Bonzi Wells as opposed to the consistent but yawn impact of charges taken by Battier and Hayes. 4) What Morey says and what Morey does are mutually exclusive events. He can say anything. When there is even the remote hint of doubt...Morey will run to the $Balls. That is human nature. We all go to our comfort zone when confronted with uncertainty. As I've said 2 times prior in this thread...ultimately SOMEONE has to step up and make tie-breaker decisions on TALENT. The $Ball told us how well Shane Battier did for the Grizz. The $Ball was unable to look forward at how Battier would do against the WC elites and near elites. 5) No one...absolutely NO ONE...has provided hard evidence of the success of $Ball in the NBA. Clearly, anyone can pick their own criteria of what obscure aspect they want to emphasize. That's the reason John Hollinger didn't have Brooks or Landry in his Top 35. Is Morey "smarter" than Hollinger? In closing...what I as a reasonably intelligent person would like to know more than anything else...please name me these specific success factors that have been identified. I'm serious here... What I propose to you is this...the "success factors" of any GM's $Ball...is entirely dependent upon that GM's weighting of what's important. I can't prove it..but IMHO Pritchard as a former player will have a different set of "success factors" than Morey. Again I ask...quantify these success factors for us. I may be a minority of one in my opinion of $Ball for the NBA. But I'm sure that there are hundreds if not thousands of posters who would really like to know what "$Ball success factors" consist of in terms of NBA BASKETBALL.
Unless I am mistaken, you never played in the NBA either, but you make comments evaluating the Swift/Gay-Battier trade. Why are Morey's evaluations automatically suspect, but yours valid?
He provides you with examples, you provide the nitpicky differences. "Pritchard? Well he's a former NBA player. That's different. Colangelo? Well, he's the exception of a successful GM with no player experience. I won't back that up, but I'll just assume so." You won't be happy until he finds Daryl Morey's successful clone, and even then you'd probably complain that the clone spells his name differently. I love the two lines above. You demand hard evidence from others, but don't feel the need to provide any for your own assertions. Way to be a hypocrite.
I don't know how it went from sign amir to moneyball, but here is my take. Basketball is the one sport where 1 guy can make a big difference. In football it takes everyone doing their job and in baseball a pitcher pitches every 5 days and a hitter could go 5 for 5 and have no impact on the game. In basketball it takes talent and exucution by certain level of players to win rings. I didn't think he was the right guy and until the talent is increased, i'm not going to believe in him. Why would any team go and get Morey or wallace from boston which has been dismal the last couple of years. Who was the gm that traded and expiring walker contract for a lengthy lafrentz one? To top that off, they reaquired walker only to let him go again. We can go on and on, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that when Battier is your 3rd best player, your team isn't going far. I don't really care about the regular season and i do fault JVG for not developing any young players, but a blind man can see chuck hayes and rafer alston shouldn't start or any team with championship goals.
If we're going to go after a young unproven power forward, I would prefer to go after Justin Williams from Sacramento.
