It's pretty simple really. The Rockets have a huge need for a PF. Considering the assets that we have, there's not a whole lot of options out there. We can go out and pay $3M or so to some 30+ journeyman type, but a) that's a short term fix and b) those guys aren't going to kill you, but they're not going to give you too much production either. They "are what they are". A Joe Smith is going to give you maybe 10pts and 6 reb/game and in the next few years his production is going to start to decline with age. Additionally, with today's FA market all it takes is for one team to overpay and a guy is getting way more than he's worth. There are several teams chasing Joe Smith right now and it wouldn't surprise me if one of them offered him the entire MLE. Now on to Johnson. He's young, very very athletic and he has skills. Does that guarentee that he'll be a good NBA player? Nope, but there's also no guarentee that all of last week's lottery picks will pan out either. It's a guess based on potential. So it really comes down to how much the Rockets like Amir Johnson. If he's just an athletic kid with some potential, then you probably look elsewhere. If you think that he's a potential star and that he can be a special player, then you go after him. Morey and the Rockets have to decide how to best spend their money. Do you get a short term veteran with a low ceiling or do you take a shot at getting a long term solution at the PF with a very high ceiling. It's a risk, but if it were a sure thing, then Johnson would be getting big money and we'd have no shot whatsoever. Now, because it is a risk we maybe have a chance to acquire him, but it will cost us some money to do it. If we come in with a $3M offer, Detroit will match. So, if we do want him, then don't take the chance of losing him over a couple of million dollars. Here's the way the I think about it. If Amir Johnson were coming out in this year's draft, he's likely be a lottery pick. If the Rockets had a chance to acquire a lottery pick for $3M they'd do it. So, between that $3M and the lottery picks salary, you're at $5M for next year anyway. Sure, there's an extra $2M in salary every year of the deal that you don't have when you buy a pick. Also, the extra $2M in salary counts against the cap, where cash in a transaction doesn't. So, it comes down to the question of "would you pay an additional $6M or so over the next 4 years to acquire a talent like that?". If so, then you offer him the full MLE. If not, you go sign Joe Smith or Brian Skinner and you keep on looking for your PF of the future. As for the question of why Detroit would let Johnson go, the answer is also simple...money. The Pistons are right at the threshold of the Luxury Tax and they despartely don't want to go over. Going over the LT not only causes you to get hit with a dollar for dollar tax, it also causes you to lose your share of some of the Basketball related income from the league. We've seen teams give up lots of talent to avoid going over the LT threshold. Dallas waived Michael Finley due to LT, Phoenix has sold 2 first round picks for cash in the last two drafts (one of those turned out to be L. Deng). Phoenix has been exploring trade options for Marion this offseason just to avoid going over the LT threshold. Detroit is in a similar situation with Johnson. He's a potential star, but they're faced with the LT and they already have Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess, Jason Maxiell, Nazr Mohammed and maybe Chris Webber on their roster. Are they going to go over for Johnson? Only Joe Dumars knows that for sure. It really comes down to Detroits cap situation. If Chancey Billups taking a slightly smaller deal allows Detroit to match an offer to Johnson up to the MLE, then I'm guessing that they do it. If that offer puts then in LT land, then that's where things get interesting.
Really, I'd have to disagree. I think that Kevin Pritchard has done a remarkable job rebuilding the Blazers. Likewise Danny Ferry has done a good job with the Cavs. Pritchard's first exposure to "moneyball" was with the Spurs and they've had a little success. All of those are "moneyball" teams.
Very good post there aelliot. I haven't seen the kid, but from what many of you have described, I'm partway convinced that he can be no worse than Juwan Howard is for us in the mid-30s just based on his athleticism and skills alone. 5-6 million a year for that? I'd do it. Given that Stromile got about 5.5 million a year based on the same principle of buying potential. Worse comes to worse? Use him as salary dump in a trade next season. There'll always be teams who're desperate enough to buy into that same potential again.
Comments like this are from people who are entirely missing the point. Amir is a viable, realistic possibility. It is a move that actually might happen. That is what all the excitement is about. It is a guy we can afford and that meets our needs. Sorry if we can't all sit around and dream of picking up All Star power forwards to fill out our roster. There was a thread somewhere around here from earlier this week about trading Sura, VSpan and Lucas for Marcus Camby. I know Denver needs to clear some cap room, but seriously people. That is why I like threads like this that a worth talking about because they might actually happen.
I seriously doubt any Rockets fan doesn't want a better PF or doesn't realize Johnson has more talent than any PF the Rockets have. I think the big problem I see with it is how after 11 games off the bench he has earned $33 million? People keep comparing this money to what lotto picks get, well Oden didn't get anything even close to $33 million. $33 million/11 career games = $3 million earned for every game he played.
I feel Morey will keep on trying sign and trades for a PF. Offering Amir a contract will be a last resort option IMO.
For starters, I'm not sure that the 33 million is a solid number yet, but in this day and age, 33 million over five years is a pretty good bargain for a young 6'11 Power Forward. And lets get away from the 11 Career games thing. Obviously this is no indication of his potential. And I am not saying this is our only option, only a realistic option that would improve the team.
If we are going to get an all star quality PF then we are going to have to take chances on someone with potential. Any PF that is already at All Star quality is far out of our price range. IMO championship teams usually have to take a few chances. Amir is either going to make some GM look like a genious or going make him look like Isiah Thomas.
You're still missing the point. Of course 11 games hasn't earned him a big contract, his potential has. Just like every lottery pick in last week's draft, he's being paid for potential. The Rockets would be paying that type of money for the right to acquire a guy with that much potential. If we had a high lottery pick,then yeah that would make more sense, but we don't. The only way we get a guy with that type of potential is to risk the money, otherwise you don't get him. If you offer a low amount then Detroit matches. If you wait until a guy is more of a sure thing, then he's way out of our price range. You need to realize that based on our current cap and our available assets anyone that we get will have something wrong with them. There's guys with low ceilings that are up in age, there are guys with ability that are nut jobs and there's guys that are unproven. You just have to decide which one you're willing to accept. I personally would prefer to take a chance on the unproven guy simply because he doesn't have any glaring weaknesses other than lack of experience. The up side with a guy like that is much higher, so I'm willing to assume the risk. So, to anwer your question you're not paying him that money due to past performance, you're paying it for the right to acquire him.
Yea, but the real question isn't, IMO, if he's worth the risk of the full MLE. We all know we have a glaring need at the 4, and if he can come in and simply block shots and rebound like he has,then I think he's worth it. We'd have our frontcourt pretty much locked up.(the thought of Yao and Amir playing together for years puts me in a euphoric state) I think the real question lies with Morey and Adleman. Are they convincing enough to get Les on board. It might be too early in their relationship to team up and present the case to Les. I hope I'm wrong though........
Exactly that is the point I am saying in the last several posts in the thread. It isn't something a rookie GM can sell to an owner like Alexander, and it probably isn't something a rookie GM will risk because he would have to sell it to Alexander and it would blow up in his face if something went wrong. Everyone seems to be forgetting that part of this.
You may be right, but it seems that Morey has been willing to go an entirely different direction, especially with the draft. And in Clutch's article he infered that Detroit had told Houston they will match the contract, which implies he has heard something, so, I say call their bluff..... Make em match it. DD
With all this talk, has there been any word from the front office that we are actually interested in Amir Johnson or even the "probably soon to be expendable" Drew Gooden?
I know you will still disagree, but for clarification's sake, I was referring to Morey. Pritchard has done a masterful job and Ferry a commendable job. Regarding your assessment for spending the extra millions on Amir Johnson, I am ameliorating my views on spending the entire MLE. I bow to a superious argument -- I agree we must go for broke and hope Detroit backs down.
I really hope we don't waste the WHOLE MLE on this unproven kid. Part of the MLE would be fine, but it'd be crazy to waste the whole 5mil on him.
