Hey, I tried the link and this is what I got... Thought I'd try again tomorrow. _____________________ HAHTsite hsrun reports the following: An error occurred communicating with the HAHTsite Scenario Server, probably because the Scenario Server process running this application has terminated due to an error. Report this problem to the site webmaster. Diagnostic information: Error Unable to communicate with the hsserver process using the configured address and port number. The named pipe or socket could not be opened or was not found. Foreground Host roperweb Installation Name Roperweb Server Group Roperweb hsrun type CGI URL http://roperweb.ropercenter.uconn.e...o_1z1A--46Io/HAHTpage/HS_presapproval_home_fH StateId SgA4wiGCU6HkuRNfs3egg_o_1z1A--46Io Date/time 25 Sep 2003 23:32:46.015
I have to assume that at least some of the 51% are undecided., so I'm sure they aren't quite as bad as the traitors who disapprove. Even when Clinton had approval ratings in the 40s, he rarely had disapproval numbers higher than the approval numbers. Hard to believe that Clinton had a 42% approval rating in May of 1995. Of course, by September of the next year, he was at 57% approval.
Almost 12 hours ago and nobody has even responded to this post. Sad really, considering this is one of the only posts of substance. What exactly was the big news in that? I think we all knew Clinton was not popular a year before the 1996 election. Remember the whole Republican revolution in 1994, the end of the Democratic party, etc, etc? No one here has said Bush is dead in the water - just that he's not invincible. Clinton, also, was very beatable in 1996 ... The Republicans just ran out a mediocre candidate and a terrible campaign. Anyone who thinks this race will be won before ~September 2004 is delusional.
But the converse may be true. If the Iraq situation and the no-new-jobs economy drag into next spring, Bush is cooked. It will be the Dems election to lose (which is certainly in their capabilities).
i read something quite a while back that talked about George W Bush and his fathers meltdown back in 1991. The article basically said George W told his father to drop Dan Quayle and get some new blood, but his father said that would have been disloyal so obviously didn't do it. Anyone else think George W might drop Cheney if 6 months from now he's still gotta low approval rating? Personally i think his best move if it came down to it would be to replace Cheney with Rudy Guiliani. He's a moderate republican but New York loves the guy and i'd be willing to bet money on Bush taking NY if that scenario occured. But, i don't think it'll come to that. Every single president since LBJ has had a terrible approval rating in year 3 of their presidency. I think it goes something like 3 got reelected and 3 lost, so anything can happen. I think things will get better eventually
I'd take that bet in a New York minute. No way he wins NY. The resentment over post 9/11 actions, including the EPA debacle and the stonewalling of the investigations, will only get larger between now and the GOP Convention... and I think the Convention will be ugly.
The 2004 Republican Convention in NYC will make the 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago look like a walk in the park, especially if they use 9/11 in a partisan way. The streets of NYC will erupt with protests and violence if that happens.
OK, I still couldn't get the link to work, but I did find The Harris Poll data. Looks like Clinton had hit his bottom mark towards the end of his second year. I would argue that OK City stabilized his ratings in April of 1995 and by this time of the year, he was on a general ascent. I don't think Bush's ratings are through falling. If Bush is close to the same curve Clinton experienced, he'll have a few more months on the downswing and several where he stays even before an upswing. Big difference is Clinton's recovery was well underway before the election cycle really started where Bush may be down at a time when the big elections guns are aimed directly at him. If I were a Republican, I would find little optimism in comparing Clinton's and Bush's numbers at the same time in their administrations. To make the comparison now opens you up to future comparisons as the months roll on and I would bet that Bush will not be at 55 by next June or 59 a year from now.
The state of McCain and Kyl (not to mention J.D. Hayworth) is now full of commie/terrorist symps. 34% has got to be as low as a Republican President can go in Arizona... doesn't it? ____________________ Just a third of Arizonans give thumbs up to Bush second term advertisement Jon Kamman The Arizona Republic Sept. 25, 2003 05:25 PM Barely one-third of Arizona voters say they would give President Bush a second term, a statewide poll revealed Thursday. The 34 percent support for his re-election, with 44 percent preferring someone else and 22 percent undecided, reflects a dramatic plunge in popularity for Bush. In 2000, he beat Al Gore in Arizona by a margin of 6 percentage points, or nearly 100,000 votes of 1.5 million cast. State Democratic Chairman Jim Pederson said the poll results are evidence that Arizonans are "increasingly frustrated with the Bush administration's performance on both the foreign and domestic fronts." But Bob Fannin, state Republican chairman, said Bush enjoyed unsustainably high ratings earlier this year, and party leaders had predicted a decline. The drop fits a pattern seen at this point in the first terms of both Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, he said. Fannin also dismissed the poll results as an abstraction, because the election is more than 13 months away and no opponent has been chosen. Both parties' interpretations are valid, said Bruce Merrill, the Arizona State University journalism professor who conducted the poll for Channel 8 (KAET-TV) and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication. "Polls measure opinions at a particular point in time," he said, "and things can change virtually instantly." Still, the results show that "in the short term, he (Bush) is in a difficult situation, and parallels with his father are real." After the 1991 Gulf War, the elder Bush's ratings soared, but an eroding economy led to his defeat in 1992. The poll also found that slightly more than half (52 percent) of respondents opposed providing $87 billion, as Bush has requested, for continued military presence and reconstruction in Iraq. Forty-two percent supported the request, and 6 percent were undecided. A total of 390 registered voters were surveyed statewide. Results have a sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. Merrill said polls in Arizona often turn out to be within 2 or 3 percentage points of findings in nationwide polls.
