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Budget Implication of the Martin Trade (as Reported)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Carl Herrera, Feb 18, 2010.

  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    So, here's how the numbers line up after the deal as far as I can see. Please correct me if I missed anything.

    Baseline Numbers:

    Armstrong, KT and Rodriguez are all expiring and probably won't be signed back, so they make no impact on the salary.

    Taking away Landry means that the Rockets continuig salary commitment, assuming Yao picks up his player option, and Rockets pick up Hayes' team option, will be about $39.7 mill for the existing players plus $11 million for Kevin Martin.

    So, that's about $51 mil total.

    That means the team still won't have meaningful room under the NBA salary cap (which probably won't be any more than, say, $54 mil).


    It does mean, however, that the team will likely have something like $14-15 million under the luxury tax threshold, which, as Morey said, is his real budget cap.

    This means they'll be able to match any reasonable offer that Scola and Lowry would receive as FA without going into the tax, plus sign the 1st round pick. (As I stated before, my guess is that Scola and Lowry will end up making $10-11 mil combined next year.)

    It would also mean that they can probably use all of the MLE (I think $5 or $5.5 mil for the first year) without going over the budget by an unreasonable amount-- remember, if they are over by, say, $2 mil or $2.5 mil, it should be simple enough to trade, for example, David Andersen's contract (guaranteed only for next season, the season after is player option). Les doesn't want to pay tax, but he's been willing to get above the threshold knowing he can pay someone to get back down again.

    Alternatively, the Rockets can probably trade Kenny Thomas to take on a continuing salary without being hopelessly over the tax threshhold. Not sure if there is anyone they'd consider... maybe Jeffries + a pick for KT?




    Variables


    So... is Les now or will he be ready to pay tax?

    Is Kevin Martin a "Special Player" that would cause Les to consider paying tax to acquire another piece? Also, given KT is expiring, is there someone out there the Rocket can get that will fall within the "Special" category for KT (and perhaps something else)? Will Yao Ming come back strong enough for Les to try to add a third piece while blowing his budget?
     
    1 person likes this.
  2. today

    today Contributing Member

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    Thanks for the numbers, I've been waiting for this thread to start!
     
    #2 today, Feb 18, 2010
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2010
  3. sammy

    sammy Contributing Member

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    Thank you sir. That was quick and appreciated.

    It would be crazy if we could flip Thomas by tomorrow. Is this even plausible?
     
  4. LongTimeFan

    LongTimeFan Contributing Member

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    Trading for Jeffries would push us closer to ~60 million, which would kill our ability to re-sign both Lowry and Scola, as well as a 1st rounder. Unfortunately, I feel like this deal may be as good as it gets sans some 2nd rounders.
     
  5. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN I'm Rich Biiiiaaatch!

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    I'm guessing Battier will be on the move soon. That should clear out some space for 2010.
     
  6. Noob Cake

    Noob Cake Member

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    This is a very good deal; Kevin Martin's value is at the lowest level possible right now.

    Sergio certainly has some value; he could be shipped off tomorrow to the Knicks or resigned next year.
     
  7. abc2007

    abc2007 Member

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    I like this trade more than the knicks trade.

    As I said on other threads, I don't want to wait very long. 2011-2012 season is very far. ;)

    I don't think the rockets will accept Jefferis since the rockets can make a noise next season.
     
  8. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    I'm hoping against hope that Les will loosen the purse-strings, then flip Kenny Thomas for Jefferies, Hill, and NY's picks. Eat some tax money for a season, then set ourselves up well in the next couple of years.

    Probably won't happen though.
     
  9. Rockets4279

    Rockets4279 Member

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    Maybe Philly could get involved in talks now they have gap fillers and players to move. I think Kenny Thomas could be shifted to them as long as Speights/Williams was the asking price to take on Sam. Of course you'd be after Young, but that is doubtful.
     
  10. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    I held out hope that the Rockets could do a sign and trade for a much better player than Martin in the offseason. But they just traded away their best trade chip (Landry), so that's not happening. Maybe the chances of that happening were always remote.
     
  11. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    Okay so since I cant wait a few hours to see if we can possibly get more I crunched the numbers.

    Here are the implications of the Kings Only Trade as it looks currently. As already suggested, we would have about 13 million dollars to resign Lowry, Scola and spend a little on a MLE player.

    Code:
    Yao Ming 	$16,378,325 	$17,686,100         
    Shane Battier 	$6,864,200 	$7,354,500         
    Trevor Ariza 	$5,854,000 	$6,322,320 	   
    Brian Cook 	$3,500,000           
    Luis Scola 	$3,383,333
    David Andersen 	$2,314,815 	$2,500,000 	      
    Chuck Hayes $	2,117,500 	$2,301,250         
    Brent Barry* 	$2,062,800           
    Kyle Lowry 	$2,034,996 	         
    Aaron Brooks 	$1,118,520 	$2,016,692 	  
    Jermaine Taylor $750,000 	$810,000 	      
    Chase Budinger 	$725,000 	$783,000 	       
    Pops Mensah	$82,550           
    Mike Harris* 	$64,978           
    Will Conroy# 	$43,319           
    Garrett Temple# $26,91
    Kevin Martin 	$10,180,170 	$11,100,005 	
    Kenny Thomas 	$8,775,000 
    Sergio Rodri	$1,892,035 	 
    Hilton Armst	$2,801,198
    Lottery Pick			$1,677,840 	 
    TOTAL		$70,096,956	$52,551,707	
    Now this next trade is if we flip Thomas/Rodriguez to New York for Jeffries/Hill/2 picks. Now this only gives us about 3 million to use on Scola/Lowry.

    Code:
    Kings + Knicks trade
    Yao Ming 	$16,378,325 	$17,686,100         
    Shane Battier 	$6,864,200 	$7,354,500         
    Trevor Ariza 	$5,854,000 	$6,322,320 	   
    Brian Cook 	$3,500,000           
    Luis Scola 	$3,383,333
    David Andersen 	$2,314,815 	$2,500,000 	      
    Chuck Hayes $	2,117,500 	$2,301,250         
    Brent Barry* 	$2,062,800           
    Kyle Lowry 	$2,034,996 	         
    Aaron Brooks 	$1,118,520 	$2,016,692 	  
    Jermaine Taylor $750,000 	$810,000 	      
    Chase Budinger 	$725,000 	$783,000 	       
    Pops Mensah	$82,550           
    Mike Harris* 	$64,978           
    Will Conroy# 	$43,319           
    Garrett Temple# $26,91
    Kevin Martin 	$10,180,170 	$11,100,005 	
    Jared Jeffries 	$7,466,600 	$7,883,800  - Including 2 million dollar trade kicker 
    Jordan Hill 	$2,483,280 	$2,669,520 
    Hilton Armst	$2,801,198 	
    Lottery Pick			$1,677,840
    Total		$69,379,801	$63,105,027
    I am assuming Scola/Lowry will cost about 10 million to resign which puts us about 7 million over the cap. What we could do is try to dump Jeffries at the deadline using one of the assets from the Knicks trade as incentive. This would essentially get us 2 picks for free. If its not possible, the luxury tax hit wouldnt be too bad and we would still have two extra picks to help ease the pain :grin:
     
  12. Vienna Calling

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    Is that true? I thought the 2011/12 season is a team option.
     
  13. worzel gummidge

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    $51,397,624 using the salary figures from ShamSports.

    If the cap is set at the projected $53.6 million the tax level would be approximately $65 million.

    That's around $13.6M of salary space to re-sign Scola, Lowry, and to use MLE, LLE, and on vet/min free agents.

    Figures taken from this article: http://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/art_garcia/07/08/salarycapinfo/index.html

    Gersson Rosas mentioned that the Rockets could use a playmaker and a backup bigman.

    Depending on what happens with NY, KT, and Rodriguez. The Rockets could be in possession of extra cap space which would allow salary to be taken on in a followup trade.

    If Washington aren't under LT yet then offer the main pieces of 2010 1stR pick + Taylor + rights to Eliyahu for either Blatche or McGee where its structured mainly for the Wiz to reduce payroll.

    Alternatively, the draft or vet min should cover that need.

    On the other hand. A playermaker, IMO, will need to be an established player. Who's available, who can be signed for the MLE? This one's tricky.

    Much has been said of the Spurs defense this season... Would they take 2010 1stR pick + Battier + rights to Eliyahu (One of Lindsey's pick?) for Manu + rights to Splitter?
     
  14. Furious Jam

    Furious Jam Contributing Member

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    If we still have the MLE, we could sign Udonis Haslem, Al Harrington, Channing Frye, or Marcus Camby. Those are all good options and the trade looks much better that way.
     
  15. worzel gummidge

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    Frye has a player option for next season. In yet another season he's slumped his way out of the starting lineup.

    If the Rockets intend to stay under LT... They have $13.6M of salary space to spend. -$1M, 1stR pick -$6M, Scola -$4M, Lowry = $2.6M of the MLE to use?
     
  16. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    What could they do today before the deadline?
     
  17. mike_lu

    mike_lu Member

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    Brad Miller next year ...
     

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