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Bros, the rebounding is really, really bad.

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by bmd, Apr 21, 2020.

  1. bmd

    bmd Member

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    I already know the theories as to how people think they can be better without great rebounding. The fact is, they haven’t done it. Since the trade, they’re 18th in turnover percentage and they’re already 5th in creating turnovers.

    The little they’re able to mitigate through turnovers is not going to make up for dead last rebounding and a 20th ranked defense.

    They’re not going to improve their rebounding, so they HAVE to drastically improve their defense to have any chance of doing anything in the playoffs.
     
  2. francis 4 prez

    francis 4 prez Contributing Member

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    it's april 22nd and we haven't even lost a playoff game yet. wait until then to start complaining.
     
  3. PhiSlammaJamma

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    We had the luxury of Dwight Howard, and haven't rebounded since. We took it for granted that one guy would get them all. And everyone got soft.
     
  4. francis 4 prez

    francis 4 prez Contributing Member

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    i don't know if this is how he thinks, but i think at least some of that "high variance" thinking was from an era when a) we weren't at our peak and b) the warriors were winning 73 games and added durant. i would suspect he would not try for as much variance in a post-warriors world, other than taking lots of 3's involves variance and taking lots of 3's makes the most mathematical sense so it's somewhat unavoidable. as a counter to that, once it was clear that this year's team wasn't anything like our '17-'18 team, i think he figured variance was back on the menu and went with the ultimate, high risk-high reward move in going all small ball. people from the outside will say "they're crazy for having no center", but what's the point in staying conventional with no ceiling above "2nd round exit" even if the unconventional change also makes "first round exit" more likely.

    i still have no idea what to think. we came out like gangbusters and beat good teams (or lost on buzzer beaters) and then suddenly couldn't beat a bad team and looked like we forgot how to play basketball. either it worked at first because it was new or we were just continuing our season long struggle against terrible teams. either way, the break in the season probably came at an ideal time for us.

    while i completely agree that i would have rather kept cp3 (especially with the warriors done), i just think there was no way cp3 and harden were going to keep playing together and morey had no choice but to trade cp3. we seem to have fallen into the unfortunate spot in history where we peaked (at a really high peak) with durant on the warriors and then couldn't make egos work without durant on the warriors.
     
  5. Mathloom

    Mathloom Contributing Member

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    They are trying something that hasn't been tried before, there's no reason why there should be a precedent to legitimize it.

    Our defense will get better. Also, none of the teams you guys are comparing to could dream of this team's offense. They need time to gel.

    If this experiment goes well teams will stop spending money on rebounding, that's how this goes.
     
    HP3 likes this.
  6. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    You’re wrong. You keep saying they haven’t done it, yet games have already happened where they have. The formulas are already there and you just don’t understand it bc you’re still stuck on conventional ways of thinking. It was never a finished product. That’s not new.
     
  7. bmd

    bmd Member

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    If you think I’m a conventional thinker, you don’t know me very well. I’m as big a proponent of analytics as anyone. I always look at numbers. And the fact is the numbers just don’t add up to what you’re saying.
    In order for this to work, they have to be elite on both sides of the ball.

    That’s always the case when talking about championships, but now you’re asking them to be elite on both sides while also not turning the ball over and also creating a bunch of steals. That’s not going to work for this team. They have the ability to create steals, but a team with Westbrook and Harden will never be elite in turnover prevention.

    They’re not good at rebounding, defense, or turnover prevention. You’re expecting them to magically become elite at two of those three. There is no evidence that they will.
     
  8. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    Then it doesn’t exactly line up with it since I pretty much see conventional thinking here. When there’s games that absolutely support what I’ve said. You’re trying to tell people what they already know and that the rockets have to do this and that. Nah they don’t. There isn’t just 1 specific way to win

    These apparently don't add up......

     
    #28 YOLO, Apr 22, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2020
  9. bmd

    bmd Member

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    You’re only looking at the 6 or 7 games where they were playing well while completely ignoring the most recent 5 games where they were getting absolutely skull-dragged.

    I’m taking both into account while also looking at what they’ve done all year. They weren’t a good defensive team before the trade. They have been a horrific defensive team in the most recent 5 games, and the post-trade before the most recent 5 games they still only ranked 10th in defense. And that was their absolute best stretch of the season.

    There is no statistical evidence that they will be a good defensive team, much less an elite one.

    They have never been a low turnover team. They are average in that department at best.

    They are the worst rebounding team in the league.

    The only thing they are good at is offense. And even in that department they aren’t the best in the league.

    I’m sorry, but the math doesn’t add up. They have to improve big time to be able to win a championship.

    In 2017-18, when the Rockets nearly dethroned the Warriors, they were #1 in offense and #7 in defense. At the end of the season they were playing like a #3 defense.

    This year, post trade, this team is 12th in offense and 15th in defense. Their one bright spot was their post-trade 6 game win streak. They had the #1 offense and #5 defense during that span. That’s championship level. And that’s what you seem to be clinging to. But that was a winning streak. There are no losses mixed in there to bring those averages down. That is the absolute peak.

    I’d be thrilled if they can play that well all the time, but the last 5 games of the season so far totally killed that vibe.
     
  10. Williamson

    Williamson HARTENSTEIN ONLY FAN

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    It's a good thing Isaiah Hartenstein is ready to average a double double if they'd just play him.
     
    fattz and Easy like this.
  11. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    why in the world are you taking account what they're doing all year. the only thing that matters is the team post cov trade/small ball all game bc that's what they are. unconventional basketball. this is exactly what im talking about when saying you're stuck in a certain way.

    of course bc there's been a limited number of games. and for the umpteenth time, it isn't a finished product but once again the ways of aggregation are there. this is pretty much a dead end. youre set on 1 way despite being shown numerous posts and threads with this very discussion. essentially a broken record. everything that pretty much needs to be, has been said already either here or in the other numerous threads addressing the obvious.

    carry on.
     
    #31 YOLO, Apr 22, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2020
  12. sammy

    sammy Contributing Member

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    Play with the Rockets in 2k. TRASH
     
  13. Easy

    Easy Very Calm
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    Undefeated.
     
    Invisible Fan likes this.
  14. kjayp

    kjayp Contributing Member

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    OP... the point you are making is obvious... but people would rather bury their head in the sand and live in denial - until this season blows up in our faces... that is if this season ever continues...

    For the last few years everybody on here kept saying that our team was great and we had a winning game plan - but just had the bad luck of being up against one of the best team ever assembled in the GSW... insisting GSW was the only thing keeping us from multiple championships... One hamstring away blah blah blah...

    Welp... GSW is in the dumper... so did we continue what kept us a GSW team away from multiple championships? Nope... lets rework stuff and trot out another high risk game plan...

    I'll be so glad when MDA is gone... maybe then we can focus on doing what we need to do to win in the post season - instead of merely aspiring to reg season glory and a reg season to 'cherish'... smh...
     
  15. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    Sample size was WAAAAY too small for anyone to have concrete evidence either way.

    Half the games it looked unbeatable. Half the games it looked like it could never win.

    15 or so games isn’t much to truly get everyone acclimated to each other and the system/game plan and then draw any concrete conclusions.

    Although I do believe it was pretty obvious that once the disaster of trading for Westbrook happened, going this route gave us our best chance. Might or might not be a viable strategy year after year, but in my mind it was our only chance to make Westbrook and the team viable this season.
     
    HP3 likes this.
  16. smoothie_king

    smoothie_king Member

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    Danuel house is the most experienced player under 30 with experience in Utah, first round.

    Danuel house makes up for most of the mistakes.

    Danuel house is the best paid big under age of 30!
     
  17. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Not sure the Rockets management hang all their hats on that hook.

    Reg Season...Warriors.............DReb%.........NBA Rank.........NBA Champion
    14/15..............................................70.3%................18th..................Warriors
    15/16..............................................72.0%................15th..................Cavs
    16/17..............................................70.9%................27th..................Warriors
    17/18..............................................71.2%................29th..................Warriors
    18/19..............................................72.7%................17th..................Raptors

    19/20........Warriors........................72.2%................21st.................. ??.........................(Warriors record 15-50)
    19/20........Rockets.........................71.4%................26th................. ??.........................(Rockets record 40-24)
    more to basketball than just rebounding

    19/20......Rockets (last 5 games)....68.5%...............30th
    19/20......Boston (last 5 games)......69.2%...............29th
    may be 2 of the best teams this season

    https://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/?sort=DREB_PCT&dir=-1&CF=MIN*GE*15&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season&Month=2
     
  18. BigBum

    BigBum Member

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    Switch defense and coaching are top 2 biggest things to improve.

    Bench guys don’t have body types or speed to grab rebounds, not able to improve,
     
  19. SuperMarioBro

    SuperMarioBro Member

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    Rebounding is the box score stat with the weakest correlation to winning.
     
  20. DaDakota

    DaDakota Contributing Member
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    The team is the definition of mediocre, the roster was built like a midget league team - just not well thought out.

    It was meant to fool the casual fans into spending money in the regular season to see individually talented players, but it was also built to FAIL in the playoffs.

    DD
     

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