Brooks and possibly Camby on a full roster; Something's gotta Give!

Fullcourt · Jul 23, 2013

megastahr said: ↑

fairly good points...and in the past I might even agree.

That is no longer moreys strategy. Morey is no longer about the "you can never have too many assets" mentality. Neither are we signing camby and miller to trade our rookies for less then we their value if they do anything significant this year.

Morey might trade all the players you named but it wont be for draft pics. It will be for a player that can help this year.

We are not in the business of collecting assets any more. We might try and upgrade assets like. Turn Dmo and a future 1st into a lowry type pick that we got from the raptors.

But that will just be to give something to trade for a 3rd star.

So although your though process is in line with moreys historic behavior. We all know, and morey has stated that has all changed. He is no longer trying to hord up assets and draft picks for swing for the fences moves ( like royce white).

But move our assets for talent to put around Harden and Howard now in their prime window.
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I agree. Just look at Morey's moves when we had T-Mac and Yao.

sammy · Jul 23, 2013

Post 86 is a very good post.

Sure we have Harden, Howard, and Parsons, but Morey wants more...wait for it...assets.

Building a team that will win titles now and into the future is the ultimate goal. Having a core of Harden/Howard/LMA (?)/Parsons will be deadly for the next half decade.

Edit: I just read megastahr's post. I disagree. We need to garner another first to make an offer Portland can't refuse. A 2015 first from a team like Milwaukee could just do it. Three firsts might do it (own 2014/2016 picks, said team's 2015).

Normally, I would worry about giving up so many firsts, but the track record is proven. Morey can find rotational players that are even starter-worthy in the second.

rolyat93 · Jul 23, 2013

OmerAsik3 said: ↑

People need to understand this when Dwight is 34 and Asik is 34 Asik will be a better player why? Because Asik never relies on his athletic ability and his longevity is ridiculous he hasn't missed an NBA game in his 3 years in the league. #DON'TTRADEASIK
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Who gives a **** about when they're 34. We're trying to win now.

sammy · Jul 23, 2013

rolyat93 said: ↑

Who gives a **** about when they're 34. We're trying to win now.
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LOL Asik is a goner no matter what in 2 summers. He will be traded at some point before that.

hooroo · Jul 23, 2013

sammy said: ↑

LOL Asik is a goner no matter what in 2 summers. He will be traded at some point before that.
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or they try to win 2 'ships with him while they can.

sammy · Jul 23, 2013

hooroo said: ↑

or they try to win 2 'ships with him while they can.
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Unlikely.

Deuce · Jul 23, 2013

Great post! Very nice analysis!

rogower said: ↑

Great to see Daryl Morey continues to figure out ways to accumulate assets!

Here are a few key facts about Morey's run:

a) Morey likes to exploit inefficiences in a variety of ways.

b) Morey recognizes the value of draft picks.

c) Morey recognizes that one can never have too many assets.

d) Morey refuses to overpay for talent.

e) Morey uses advanced statistics, combined with ambitious scouting that is not restricted to this continent, to identify quality players.

f) Morey evaluates players in a very objective, unsentimental manner.

Given all of these facts, and particularly given the ongoing free agent acquisitions, it appears to me that Morey will likely make the following two moves in the relatively near future:

1) He will trade Greg Smith for a second round draft pick. Greg Smith is this team's third string C, and third string Cs only play if/when your first or second string C is injured, in severe foul trouble, or during late game garbage time. Marcus Camby provides production that is comparable to Smith's production. Camby can be acquired without having to cough up a draft pick; all you are giving up is cash. Thus, you add an asset (the second round pick) and the quality of your roster is the same. Somebody out there will trade a second round pick for Greg Smith. And we know what Morey can do with second round picks. He has repeatedly found solid rotation players in the second round. Plus, he can and does lock up these second round picks for super cheap. When you can pay quality rotation guys less than $1 mil/year, that is obviously fantastic.

2) He will trade Donatas Motiejunas for a draft pick. Obviously he is shooting for a first round draft pick but I think he'll settle for what he figures will be a high second round pick (i.e., a second round pick presently owned by a bad team). I realize there are some Motiejunas fan boys out there. All NBA fan bases make the same error consistently: they grossly overrate their own players and the likelihood of young/unproven players evolving into stars. The percentage of Rockets fans blabbering about how Motiejunas is going to be a star = the percentage of Nuggets fans who were blabbering about how Nikoloz Tskitishvili was going to evolve into a star = the percentage of Pacers fans who were blabbering about how Jonathan Bender was going to evolve into a star = etc., etc. The reality is that Motiejunas flopped as a rookie and does not figure to be a rotation player for Houston in 2013-14, which means that his value is higher now than it will be twelve months from now.

That creates two open roster spots. There is the possibility of a third trade, one involving Jeremy Lin. The folks who are pointing to Milwaukee and that organization's reluctance to fork over significant dollars to Brandon Jennings are on to something. Milwaukee clearly is not thrilled about the prospect of paying Jennings $7-$9 mil/year for the next 3-4 years, and Jennings is clearly not thrilled about playing for Milwaukee, period. I think Milwaukee would trade a first round pick for Lin, although I think they'd first want to attempt to line up a Jennings sign-and-trade, wherein they received a first round pick in return. I look around the league and I honestly can't identify a team dumb enough to make that sort of deal for Jennings. Which means that Milwaukee may just want to make this trade for Lin, anyway, and let Jennings walk. It would not surprise me to see Jennings play overseas for at least one season if his #1 priority is getting paid. [The only three teams that might be interested in acquiring a signed-and-traded Jennings, in my opinion, are the Knicks, Pistons, and Bobcats.]

And yes, I do think that Morey would prefer to acquire a first round pick from Milwaukee rather than Ersan Ilyasova. Plus, I don't think Milwaukee is particularly interested in trading away Ilyasova. He's a good player at a good price. A core of Larry Sanders-Ilyasova-Lin is probably good enough to sneak into the playoffs again in 2013-14, where they can get slaughtered by Miami, Chicago, or Indiana in the first round.

The case for trading Lin is obvious: he is owed $20 mil total over the next two seasons (which is a lot for a guy who isn't one of the top 15 or so starting PGs in the league); Patrick Beverly outperformed Lin down the stretch and appears to be a better fit alongside James Harden in the backcourt; Aaron Brooks appears to be a quality backup PG; in my opinion, Isaiah Canaan is probably closer to being a quality backup PG than folks realize (he was a four year guy in college, so his game is polished); a first round pick is more valuable than a PG who isn't one of the top 15 or so starting PGs in the league, and who is getting paid $20 mil total over the next two seasons; and, of course, this deal frees up cap space for Morey to play around with between the time of the trade and the February 2014 trade deadline, which he can use to either a) add a quality veteran for the stretch run, b) exploit a team looking to dodge the luxury tax, or c) both!

In the event that Lin, Motiejunas, and Smith are all traded for draft picks, and the team proceeds to sign Marcus Camby and Mike Miller to veteran's minimum deals, here is what Houston's 2013-14 roster looks like:

Starting lineup

PG Patrick Beverly
SG James Harden
SF Chandler Parsons
PF Terrence Jones
C Dwight Howard

Key reserves

Omer Asik
Francisco Garcia
Mike Miller (or, if/when Miller's back prevents him from playing, Reggie Williams)
Aaron Brooks

End of the bench

Marcus Camby
Reggie Williams (or Mike Miller, if/when his back prevents him from playing)
Omri Casspi

Developmental league

Isaiah Canaan
Robert Covington
B.J. Young or Jordan Henriquez

Additional assets owned:

- All of Houston's own first and second round picks except for their own 2014 second round pick (I believe this is owed to Atlanta) and a subsequent (2015? 2016?) second round pick (I believe this is owed to Milwaukee)
- A future Bucks first round pick (Lin trade)
- A future late first/early second round pick (Motiejunas trade)
- A future second round pick (Smith trade)
- Possibly one or more other second round picks from previous trades (someone can feel free to fill in the details here)
- Rights to the following players: Konstantinos Papanikolaou, Sergio Llull, Marko Todorovic, Jon Diebler, Maarty Leunen, Brad Newley, Axel Hervelle

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Vnilla_Gorilla · Jul 23, 2013

Its called injury insurance/competitive training camp.

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Brooks and possibly Camby on a full roster; Something's gotta Give!

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