Brooks and possibly Camby on a full roster; Something's gotta Give!

yoo much hype for an unproven player eh? Brooks for insurance, Canaan for DLeague duty, That's how I see it

 

Trade lin for draft picks

 

Hopefully/probably going to camp in order of importance:

1. DH12
2. The Beard
3. Parsons
4. Asik
5. JLin
6. TJones
7. Bev
8. Garcia
9. Mike Miller
10. DMo
11. R. Williams
12. G. Smith
13. Brooks
14. Casspi
15. Camby
16. Canaan
17. Covington
18. Young
19. Hernandez
20. Another Vet Minimum

Probable Roster Positions

JLin/Bev/Brooks
Hardon/MM/R.Williams
Parsons/Garcia/Casspi
DH12/TJones/DMo
Asik/Camby/G.Smith

Of course DH12 is our best center and will play most of his minutes there. I just listed him only once in case we decide to start our twin towers. IF we don't start the twin towers, I expect TJones to start at PF.

That leaves Canaan, Covington, Young and Hernandez to be in the DLeague or cut.

I still believe we could make a move before the season starts (Portland wanting to of course) for LMA with all these players and assets, but I am very content that if we don't, it won't matter.

Our team is VERY VERY strong from starters to bench, 3 deep in every position compared to any other team in the League. With a reasonably healthy season, I would bet my money on us winning it all this year!

 

I dunno about that, I think the Rockets will do well and make a deep playoff run, but I think it'll take more time to completely gel as a team. I'd be satisfied with a WCF bid this year.

 

I would be as well. But if you look at the team as I have it, without any additional trades, we have the same CORE as last year. We just added the best center in the game and some additional shooting. We gelled extremely well last year, without having a training camp for The Beard. Now they are working out together this summer, and we have all training camp without very much roster changes as compared to last year.

I think the Rockets will surprised people and be an elite level team from the first regular season game because they will gel during training camp and preseason very well. Everyone on this team pretty much likes each other and that means a WHOLE LOT!

But I would be extremely happy if they just made it to the WCF as well. I just think we will do more, but it's just an opinion.

 

Great to see Daryl Morey continues to figure out ways to accumulate assets!

Here are a few key facts about Morey's run:

a) Morey likes to exploit inefficiences in a variety of ways.

b) Morey recognizes the value of draft picks.

c) Morey recognizes that one can never have too many assets.

d) Morey refuses to overpay for talent.

e) Morey uses advanced statistics, combined with ambitious scouting that is not restricted to this continent, to identify quality players.

f) Morey evaluates players in a very objective, unsentimental manner.

Given all of these facts, and particularly given the ongoing free agent acquisitions, it appears to me that Morey will likely make the following two moves in the relatively near future:

1) He will trade Greg Smith for a second round draft pick. Greg Smith is this team's third string C, and third string Cs only play if/when your first or second string C is injured, in severe foul trouble, or during late game garbage time. Marcus Camby provides production that is comparable to Smith's production. Camby can be acquired without having to cough up a draft pick; all you are giving up is cash. Thus, you add an asset (the second round pick) and the quality of your roster is the same. Somebody out there will trade a second round pick for Greg Smith. And we know what Morey can do with second round picks. He has repeatedly found solid rotation players in the second round. Plus, he can and does lock up these second round picks for super cheap. When you can pay quality rotation guys less than $1 mil/year, that is obviously fantastic.

2) He will trade Donatas Motiejunas for a draft pick. Obviously he is shooting for a first round draft pick but I think he'll settle for what he figures will be a high second round pick (i.e., a second round pick presently owned by a bad team). I realize there are some Motiejunas fan boys out there. All NBA fan bases make the same error consistently: they grossly overrate their own players and the likelihood of young/unproven players evolving into stars. The percentage of Rockets fans blabbering about how Motiejunas is going to be a star = the percentage of Nuggets fans who were blabbering about how Nikoloz Tskitishvili was going to evolve into a star = the percentage of Pacers fans who were blabbering about how Jonathan Bender was going to evolve into a star = etc., etc. The reality is that Motiejunas flopped as a rookie and does not figure to be a rotation player for Houston in 2013-14, which means that his value is higher now than it will be twelve months from now.

That creates two open roster spots. There is the possibility of a third trade, one involving Jeremy Lin. The folks who are pointing to Milwaukee and that organization's reluctance to fork over significant dollars to Brandon Jennings are on to something. Milwaukee clearly is not thrilled about the prospect of paying Jennings $7-$9 mil/year for the next 3-4 years, and Jennings is clearly not thrilled about playing for Milwaukee, period. I think Milwaukee would trade a first round pick for Lin, although I think they'd first want to attempt to line up a Jennings sign-and-trade, wherein they received a first round pick in return. I look around the league and I honestly can't identify a team dumb enough to make that sort of deal for Jennings. Which means that Milwaukee may just want to make this trade for Lin, anyway, and let Jennings walk. It would not surprise me to see Jennings play overseas for at least one season if his #1 priority is getting paid. [The only three teams that might be interested in acquiring a signed-and-traded Jennings, in my opinion, are the Knicks, Pistons, and Bobcats.]

And yes, I do think that Morey would prefer to acquire a first round pick from Milwaukee rather than Ersan Ilyasova. Plus, I don't think Milwaukee is particularly interested in trading away Ilyasova. He's a good player at a good price. A core of Larry Sanders-Ilyasova-Lin is probably good enough to sneak into the playoffs again in 2013-14, where they can get slaughtered by Miami, Chicago, or Indiana in the first round.

The case for trading Lin is obvious: he is owed $20 mil total over the next two seasons (which is a lot for a guy who isn't one of the top 15 or so starting PGs in the league); Patrick Beverly outperformed Lin down the stretch and appears to be a better fit alongside James Harden in the backcourt; Aaron Brooks appears to be a quality backup PG; in my opinion, Isaiah Canaan is probably closer to being a quality backup PG than folks realize (he was a four year guy in college, so his game is polished); a first round pick is more valuable than a PG who isn't one of the top 15 or so starting PGs in the league, and who is getting paid $20 mil total over the next two seasons; and, of course, this deal frees up cap space for Morey to play around with between the time of the trade and the February 2014 trade deadline, which he can use to either a) add a quality veteran for the stretch run, b) exploit a team looking to dodge the luxury tax, or c) both!

In the event that Lin, Motiejunas, and Smith are all traded for draft picks, and the team proceeds to sign Marcus Camby and Mike Miller to veteran's minimum deals, here is what Houston's 2013-14 roster looks like:

Starting lineup

PG Patrick Beverly
SG James Harden
SF Chandler Parsons
PF Terrence Jones
C Dwight Howard

Key reserves

Omer Asik
Francisco Garcia
Mike Miller (or, if/when Miller's back prevents him from playing, Reggie Williams)
Aaron Brooks

End of the bench

Marcus Camby
Reggie Williams (or Mike Miller, if/when his back prevents him from playing)
Omri Casspi

Developmental league

Isaiah Canaan
Robert Covington
B.J. Young or Jordan Henriquez

Additional assets owned:

- All of Houston's own first and second round picks except for their own 2014 second round pick (I believe this is owed to Atlanta) and a subsequent (2015? 2016?) second round pick (I believe this is owed to Milwaukee)
- A future Bucks first round pick (Lin trade)
- A future late first/early second round pick (Motiejunas trade)
- A future second round pick (Smith trade)
- Possibly one or more other second round picks from previous trades (someone can feel free to fill in the details here)
- Rights to the following players: Konstantinos Papanikolaou, Sergio Llull, Marko Todorovic, Jon Diebler, Maarty Leunen, Brad Newley, Axel Hervelle

 

Hmm would like to see that trade you proposed Old Man Rock. I would really like to keep covington and canaan too.

 

this thread sucks. one star

 

Camby addition would be nice to get us some toughness.

 

Good post, imo goodbye Lin and asik. No other reason to have 4 Pg's and adding Camby to Howard and Asik.

 

interesting points never thought of a D-Mo trade for assets, and i think Morey would be hesitant before the season starts

 

I think this part is spot on. Even if we don't sign him, it's pretty clear that our front office has some sort of interest in signing him. That alone makes it seem like Asik isn't 100% in the future plans. They want to be prepared to lose him because he refuses to play with Howard, or because they try playing together & it clearly doesn't work, or someone makes a great offer that Morey can't pass up, etc.

 

Doesn't Harden's beard take up a roster slot on its own?

 

I think too much is being read into this. In my view, signing Marcus Camby allows Daryl Morey to flip Greg Smith for a second round pick. A team does need a third string C on the roster, but a third string C is worth less than a second round pick! Morey, by signing Camby, is really just acquiring a second round pick for the cost of Fanny's minimum salary. Very clever!

Who figures to see a Wendell Berry quote on an NBA fan forum? Nice!

 

These threads are hilarious. People here loved Royce white cause they saw him in college, then they hated him, now y'all love Canaan and he's destined for the dleague. Y'all love Bev and he can only score 10pts a game in summer league action but he should replace Lin who scored 38 points vs the spurs...haha. And now Brooks should start over Lin even though Brooks couldn't beat out Isaiah Thomas in sactown. If caspi has one good game i can see the thread now, should we trade Parsons and start caspi..haha

 

I'd qualify as one of those Motiejunas fanboys, but a Tskitishvili comparison is overly harsh haha.

While there might be a little bias in my views, I typically stay fairly objective in evaluations. Tskitishvili & Miličić were drafted based on their size, and physical tools. The fact is, Motiejunas has the length + low post combination that makes him rare. I know I'm likely being a little over-optimistic, but there is tangible evidence that D-Mo was more NBA ready on day 1 than Tskitishvili is in his own dreams.

Rather than needing a post game to reach his ceiling like the former examples, the only thing he really needs is strength/weight and a bit more time to adjust to NBA style play. D-Mo shot over 45% in year 1 of playing US basketball. If the report that he was nearly 260lbs & in amazing shape when leaving for the summer was true, the added strength to his existing post game all but ensures a noticeable step forward in year 2.

All that said, Jone's could lock up the PF job fairly early. He will certainly have the chance to do so. If that happens, any improvement in D-Mo's game just makes him a more valuable asset to be moved.

 

I'm not going to stress about those who doubt DMo, they'll learn the error of their ways soon enough.

 

great analysis. But this teams' core is set.
I dont think Morey is pursuing picks as assets.
Simply does not make sense at this point.

What would morey do with these draft picks? they are not going to be first 10 picks.
Draft? trade for another allstar? with the current CBA structure, I highly doubt rockets can add another max contract.

What I see could happen is to trade parsons before paying him big dollars.

 

1.Royce White.lmao
2.Canaan , at the moment, is the third pg on the depth chart.
3.Bev has proven he can play and especially when it counts..no knock on Lin.
4.Brooks can still play and sac town, that franchise has seen better days, along time ago.
5.Parsons plays the three , mostly, and I would think casspi would play more of a stretch 4 in our offense. Might even see both on the court and the same time.

I hear you but.....

You want players at one position to play at a high efficiency to give you the best probabilty to win.

I think Parsons should only play the 3 and never 4.I think and see a 4 along the lines of love, LMA, Monroe would solidify our front 5. With a bench of seasoned vets that are not rattled and still can play....that's how you form a championship team.

These moves mean something, I hope its a starting 4.

 

Clearly didn't watch the playoffs this past year.

Great post OMR.