Nice opportunity for a win before midterms for the current administration. I expect Biden to nominate an African-American woman.
I anticipate two things... one, that Biden will nominate someone young, and two, that republicans will do their darndest to block whoever is nominated.
Unfortunately this will just end up being another side show for Manchin and Sinema. They will find every way they can to gobble up the news cycle until August and maybe even extend this process out till October if they can. Republicans here I'm sure are going to just assume this is good news for Democrats, and could help us on the courts. I think whoever is nominated is going to have to go through the most rigorous nomination in US History. You think the Democrats were animated when the Republicans decided to nominate someone who was accused of rape? Just wait for the moment when this nominee said anything about race and it gets translated as CRT, or the nominee said anything positive about a foreign country, and gets accused of being a Communist. Breyer was actually pretty progressive so it'll actually hurt the courts longterm because the only type of nominee that Manchin and Sinema will support will be someone weak like Merrick Garland.
Damn y'all are fast. The right move by Breyer especially given the large uncertainty with what happens next year. Schumer should take a page from McConnell and rush through Breyer's replacement like the GOP did with Amy Barrett. Just to add again why a lot of Democrats and those on the Left are frustrated with Sinema and Manchin but this is another example of why it's very important to hold the Senate Majority. If one of them leaves and caucuses with the GOP then it's likely McConnell will pull another stunt like he did with Garland. It's should be obvious he and the rest of the GOP care if there are only 8 justices and under the current makeup that is a 6-2 advantage for them.
I have no idea with Sinema, but Manchin I don't think makes his USSC decisions based on ideology so much - he seems to defer to the President. If I remember right, he voted for Kavanaugh simply because he didn't feel he had a reason not to. For Sinema, it might be an opportunity for her to try to get back in Dems' good graces... or so we can hope. She's ideologically all over the place (or nowhere), so I don't even know what she's support or oppose.
The amount of money that the Heritage Foundation and the Koch network will try and launder to Manchin and Sinema is going to dwarf the GDP of a third world country. If I am Biden, I do NOT do this without a public guarantee from those two to fully reject outside influence. I absolutely believe the Republicans think that is a very achievable gameplan, and that it's a very likely scenario that this seat is left empty and then McConnell holds the seat open until 2025.
Manchin knows he represents a state that Biden lost to Trump by 39 points. He didn't fight Kavanaugh because he knew that his voters liked Kavanaugh because Trump put him up. He also knows that his voters are poor and live on social service benefits as well as it being a heavily unionized state. So that's the only reason why he's a Democrat. On Ideology, I actually think it's very likely he DOES NOT vote for a Biden nominee. It might be more likely that a Lisa Murkowski vote for a Biden nominee. Sinema is just the ultimate wildcard here, and far less predictable. I wouldn't be the least bit shocked if she just outright switches parties tomorrow, and campaigns for Trump the next 2 years. It also wouldn't surprise me if she decided to make a deal with Democratic groups in Arizona to back her again if she votes for the nominee and votes for all of the BBB and voting rights bills moving forward before November.
I don't think there will be much fight for this because Biden is replacing a liberal judge. Manchin and Sinema have been approving his judges and this will be no different. I even expect they'll get Collins and some other GOP senators in more purple seats to agree so that they can add that to their record. Now, if Thomas dies this year that's when you'll really see tomfoolery. I expect this one to be smooth sailing.
It feels like a coinflip as to whether Sinema/Manchin (especially Sinema) are going to be ****heads about this. Justices don't have as much of a direct line into legislation, so the folks who bought and paid for their obstruction can't make very clear determinations as to who will be friendly or hostile to their bottom line. I hope they defer. But it feels like one of them is going to cause a stir.
