Not worth 7/200. You just said it yourself. Also, I said last 5 years and you throw 2019 in there. That is why I said last 5 years and not 6. That Alex is long gone.
Alex has average 4.6 WAR per 162 games for the past 5 years. That is forgetting about 2018 and 2019 and including 2020 and 2021. He also was on that pace as well (4.1 WAR in 145g = 4.58 WAR in 162) How many players who have performed at that level have not been able to get a contract through their age 37 season?
Look at the steady decline. Look at his clutch splits last year. No way in hell he is worth what he is asking. He might still get it from some desperate team but he is clearly on the decline. 3 crappy seasons in his last 5. He was good in 2022 and 2023 because of the walks but he is not an elite hitter or even all star. His failures in clutch situations, when we desperately needed a veteran to step up, have been disturbing.
To me, as it boils down to, you can sign yet another IF (Bregman) and try to fit your round IF (Paredes) into the square hole in the OF.... or you can just sign/trade for an OF(s)
There's nothing wrong with Bregman chasing the money - it's his right and what 99% of players do. It's just wrong to expect that he can do that AND choose which team he ends up with. The Astros were never going to pay him what he wants - and its ludicrous to ask them to pay for past performance unless they also get refunds from players who don't perform. So it's his choice whether he wanted the Astros or money. He picked money - and there's nothing wrong with that. We'll see if anyone else values him as much as he and you do.
He is worth what someone will give him. According to fangraphs he has been worth $286 K per game in his career and $228K last year. At last years pace, 132 games = $30M. Alex's demise has been very exaggerated.
No, it hasn’t. His defense makes up for his offense a little but his offense is average now. His inability to hit in the clutch is a big concern now too. Getting slower and slower on the bases too. I’d rather have a player 85% as good and still improving, and under team control, than to give gobs and gobs to a declining and already 30 yr old who can’t run or get the big hits we need close and late in games. yes longest sentence ever
These egomaniacs, rightfully so, unravel when they feel like they got less than they’re worth. And I would not want someone that felt that way.
1) his offense is average now. His wRC+ was 118 which was among the top 20% of 3b and 25% of all players w/ 300+ PAs. From 5/1/24 forward that rose to 129 and in the top 15% of 3b and all players. By definition that is above average. 2) his inability to hit in the clutch is a big concern Anybody can use any stats to make their case here. Baseball is a game of failure with occasional successes so whenever there is a subject this large, there will be stats that point both directions. Some good ones: Alex had an OPS over 1.000 with multiple runners on base and nobody out. He had .939 OPS w/ runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs. His OPS was .933 w/ bases loaded or runners on 2nd and 3rd w/ 2 outs. His OPS was .799 when the team was losing by only 1 run. There are several bad ones, but you can't defend a general statement like he isn't good in the clutch. 3) getting slower and slower on the bases. According to Baseball savant, his sprint speed in 2024 was the best it had been since 2020. His baserunning value was the best since 2021. As for your statement about preferring a young still improving guy. - Sure that would be nice and as long as 12 of 13 position spots are filled on the roster and it's between Alex or this mythical young player, sure. But experience, leadership, and a proven track record have value also.
Whether on a pillow contract, here, somewhere else, or with big money . . . he will be pressing next year to prove himself. I'll take Paredes.
Alex Bregman 2024 2 outs w/risp- .194 BA, .620 OPS Late and close .220 BA, .653 OPS Tie Game .242 BA .710 OPS Ahead - .337 BA, .988 OPS Behind - .193 BA, .574 OPS He was at his best when the margin was greater than 4.
Just for real talk, here's Breg's numbers with runners on/RISP/RISP 2outs OPS: 24: .697/.694/.620 (massive suck) 23: .928/.910/.896 22: .892/1.002/.959 21: .838/.835/.837 He hasn't been terrible outside of 1 year, but I wouldn't give him much future money either
Any analytically minded GM isn’t going to look at “clutch” stats from one season in determine a contract. They’ll look at large samples size and Bregman has been a 4+ WAR player and out up a WRC+ 118 or more for the last 3 seasons. He’s protected to put up another 4 WAR and 120 WRC+ next year. If he’s not signed to a long term contract it’s because his age and not because of his lack of “clutch” ability.
It all factors in. What you are paying for and what you get might be 2 different things with Alex, a player on the decline. He is an average hitter now, maybe next year too. But how much longer? Paying him like an all star for 7 more years is risky looking at his career trend.
