That is a great point, but it only applies to whether the trade is advisable, not what the trade could possibly bring to the organization.
Only scenario I would trade Tucker is: 1) at the deadline; and 2) only if we are not competing for a playoff spot. Every market is a seller's market now, you can get a haul for a rental.
Best estimate for Tucker’s value would be ~75% of what Soto’s value was when San Diego traded him to New York. They got an MLB ready MoR SP, a fringe top 100 prospect, an org top 20 prospect, and 2 other “interesting prospects”. Higashioka and Grisham muddy things a bit. But I think Houston could get one 3rd tier MLB-ready player, one Top 100 prospect in the 40-80 range, and one interesting throw-in outside an org’s top 10. The Mets hypothetical built around Brett Baty and Jett Williams still makes sense to me. But I would bet heavily against Houston trading Tucker.
I would put much higher odds on the Astros trading Framber than Tucker. We have in house guys and reasonable free agent options to replace Framber. The offense is the bigger issue we need to address with Bregs likely walking on top of multiple lineup holes. Moving Tucker is just robbing Peter to pay Paul in that regard. I don't see any scenario in which Crane signs off on a trade for prospects. We've seen for 5 years now that he prefers to let it ride to the end than to trade early just to avoid losing a player for nothing. I think Crane will ride this thing all the way to the ground and then rebuild, he won't pull the parachute until we look fully cooked. Until then he will focus what's best for upcoming season, maybe 2.
Or 3 and I hope you're right about Crane. Also if Dana does his job correctly there should be 5-6 star level young guys ready to take over for the older guys or guys that walk in FA. Guys like Baez/Matthews/Janek/Melton/Gomez etc... and a lot of good young pitching is in the lower minors. This doesn't have to be a 2 year and the dynasty is over thing if Dana does a great job. The bar has been set very high, but Dana can keep this going with smart moves and great drafting/signing of international players over the next 3 years.
I think he will. The Astro dynasty may take a short pause, but we will never burn down the house again. No disrespect to the Talking Heads.
Spotrac has Tucker value at 7years 195m. I think if we offer 200m 7y extension.. he might take it.. framber however is valued at 3years 70m. Think both of these numbers are beyond fair.. question is would Crane even offer this?
He has essentially the same value as Corbin Burnes last year. Burnes 1 year left and 7.8 WAR 2 seasons leading up to trade. Framber 1 year left and 7.6 WAR 2 seasons leading up to trade. Burnes brought back 2 prospects at very back of the top 100. Joey Ortiz (6 years control) had 2.6 WAR as the Brewers starting 3b. DL Hall (6 years control) had a less successful debut, but still projects as a solid MOR arm for 5 more years. AND THE BREWERS STILL WON THEIR DIVISION If you consider the "core" as 9 position players, 5 starting pitchers, and 3 leverage relievers, then the Astros could fill at least 2 of those spots (+1 after losing Framber) cheaper and with much longer control.
they both will be offered better contracts I think. Neither will give a home town discount. Tucker will get offered a lot more. If Soto leaves, the Yankees will go hard at Tucker. He would absolutely crush their right field fence.
There is an argument that trading Tucker to shore up other positions is the better option for the next 2 seasons. For as good has he has been in the regular season, he consistently no showed in the playoffs which is what matters to this team mostly. If they were able to trade him for a couple position players like corner IF and younger OF, and upcoming reliever on cheap contract, that would could easily make up for his regular season production and may allow for better playoff results. Not sure that kind of trade is possible, but it would have to be done in the offseason to net those kind of returns.
As much as I love the Al West Streak, and sadly now over ACLS streak. 'stros really need to win a 3rd WS to be considered a dynasty by anyone other than Astros fans. I mean just in recent times, the Giants, Red Sox, and Cardinals are generally overlooked, and not considered a dynasty by most baseball fans. Giants won WS in 2010, 2012, and 2014. Cardinals from 2004 to 2014 won 2 titles, 4 pennants, 7 NLCS appearances. Red Sox from 2004 to 2008 won 2 titles, 2 pennants, and 4 ALCS appearances. 'stros from 2017 to 2023 have matched the Cards in a shorter time span but need to also match the Giants # of titles.
Doesn’t it feel like Bregman has already said goodbye? Maybe I’m misreading that, but damn is messages to Houston sure seem like he’s already saying goodbye…of course, maybe that’s a negotiating tool to try to get the fans to put pressure on ownership to bring him back
