Great Idea Shark! Offer to Alex Bregman – Houston Astros Contract Terms: 6 years, $156 million • Years 1-5: $28.5 million per year ($142.5 million total) • Year 6: $13.5 million (at age 37) Total Value: $156 million This structure ensures Bregman maintains his desired $28.5M AAV for the first five years, while the final year accounts for potential age-related decline. It keeps the overall deal competitive while allowing flexibility for the team in later years.
I’d even give him another $28.5M vesting player option that 6th year with 500pa, and if the option doesn’t vest it’s still a $13.5M guarantee.
I'm wondering how vesting counts towards the AAV? Seems to me that it would count against it for all 6 years. $28.5 AAV each of the 6 years vs $26 mil each of the 6 years. But then what happens in that final year if the vesting doesn't happen?
Only player options count toward AAV in CBT. Only guaranteed money or money controlled 100% by the player.
So if you gave a player $100 mil/5 years with a vesting option of $70 mil for year 6 if they hit 50 homeruns or so, it would still be $20 AAV for those 5 years (and $70 for the 6th if they were vested)? Then F, sign Bregman up to $200 mil for 7 years and say the 7th year is a vesting option of $40 mil if he reaches certain goals.
So vesting player options don’t count toward the AAV? Thats hard to believe because then teams could just structure deals with easily reachable options in order to circumvent the CBT.
He didn’t help the team out and he didn’t ever think he was helping the team out. He sold the fewest amount of years possible to guarantee 100M by buying out the arb and 2 years when he’d never made any real money in the majors yet. it was really smart of him. Guaranteed 9 figs. Still gets 150-200m over course of rest of his career. Can’t lose. makes is probably the most astute ballplayer from a financial perspective we’ve ever seen around here. The dude thinks like an accountant. His grandpa like ran the Democratic Party. He’s good.
Again, that statement was looking at it solely from the players standpoint... and what some teams end up paying later in arbitration when a player has monster years, and agreeing to give 2 FA years at a fixed rate (which ended up being around where the market would end up 7 years later, who knew?).... players who do this feel there will be some courtesy later. Yordan is going to expect it (presuming his knees don't fall off before then).... Altuve got taken care of as well when the Astros didn't have to. Alternatvely, they can all take the Springer/Correa/Tucker route.
I understand you wrote it from Bregman perspective. I’m saying I think he’s so astute that he wouldn’t really believe that. He’s too sophisticated. That extension was signed before arb years and he knew what he was giving up to mitigate the risk, imo.
I know that I am correct. What I do not know is how the vesting option effects AAV once it's triggered. It may be that in the example above: $20M for year 5 + 6th year @$70M that becomes guaranteed during year 5 suddenly is changed to a 2 yr $90M deal ($45M AAV) I don't know. But MLB has to approve the contract, and can not approve it if they feel it is unfairly skirting the AAV rules.
Heyman: Astros GM Dana Brown suggested a lack of optimism on Bregman, though word is they’ve come up from their reported $156M, six-year offer from November. https://nypost.com/2025/02/06/sports/alex-bregman-knows-what-he-wants-and-is-holding-out-for-it/
"Word is they’ve come up from their reported $156M, six-year offer from November." First I have heard this, and it would be disturbing if true to learn that the Astros had begun a one team bidding war.
Again, this is a good omen for Bregs coming back. I'm sure it may have been about $1 mil/yr AAV more but Bregs still holding out a bit longer to see what Toronto or Detroit may say. Crane increasing the offer means they are ready to finally negotiate and it may only be a matter of days now before it's done. If there is another offer to Bregman, I'm assuming it'll come with an expiration date as the quicker they can put numbers together the better. $27.5 AAV ($165/6) may get it done. The one thing Bregs needs to realize. Unless he's able to secure a no-trade clause with a new team, it's not automatic. Only with the Astros does he continue to get the 10/5 rights.
