I think the CBT threshold is set through the 2026 season (increases 4 Million next year and 3 the following), and then would need to be renegotiated. You have to expect player salaries will continue to grow over time, but I think there is still a good amount of uncertainty in the future of TV revenue. So that will discourage some owners from longer contracts. This is all to say 25 million may not look terrible in 6 years even if Bregman’s performance drops, but also that it would be an odd time for the Astros to start handing out longer contracts than they’ve been willing to in the past.
The problem with elite or top-of-the-market free agents is that it’s the only real opportunity for high revenue teams to flex their muscle. There are strict limits on draft and international signing pools, and investing in front office and player development personnel has pretty quick diminishing returns. So the very best free agents are where teams like the Yankees and Dodgers have a significant competitive advantage. In Bregman’s case, he is one of the top 10 3B in the league and he will likely stay that way for 3-4 more seasons. Every team in the league would offer him a $100M contract spanning 3 or more seasons. At around $150M, the non-competitive teams and low revenue teams would likely start to drop out, but if Bregman were to say “I want $150M/7yrs”, he’d likely have upwards of a dozen offers, and Houston would almost certainly be one of them. From that point, teams start to have to analyze much harder, and teams in the 2nd and 3rd tier of revenue have to analyze a lot harder than teams in the 1st tier. Giving out a $200M contract impacts the Astros a lot more than it does the Dodgers or Yankees. So for Houston to be the top bidder on a $200M contract, it has to feel like it knows something about the player that the higher revenue teams don’t, because it’s more costly to the Astros than those teams.
Just read an interesting article. Soto and Alfonzo both return to Their previous teams. Arizona is suddenly on a budget and stuck with Montgomery. Bregman suddenly has fewer suitors and returns to the Astros matching Chapmans 6 year deal.
How many teams can actually afford what Soto is worth? How many NEED him. Yankees, Mets, Giants, and Nationals. I think it's a bidding war bidding between the first 3.
Could be a buy low opportunity on Alec Bohm via trade. Philly fans are ready to run him out of town after a disastrous playoff series against the Mets. He's got two more years before free agency. 3.0 WAR this season.
Any chance Baltimore? Upgrade on Santander. Didn't they get new ownership that's willing to spend? Although not sure if they meant Soto level spend. But would it be better for them to extend Santander and use money on other pieces?
They are a fit in terms of their competitive window and their GM and potentially having the money, but they have a glut of infielders with Westburg, Henderson, and Holliday all warranting an everyday role on top of Urias being a pretty good player. They just don’t have the glaring need at 3B to spend $150M+ on. In a fantasy, their GM goes all in on adding Astros and signs Bregman then trades Holliday, O’Hearn, and Mayo to Houston for Tucker, Pressly, and Framber.
If the Yankees do not resign Soto, I think they go hard after both Teoscar Hernandez and Bregman. Together they will make what Soto probably ends up with.
Bregman 6yr/$152M + $9M player option w/$5M buyout. 2025-2027 =$30M per season 2028= $25M 2029= $20M 2030= $17M 2031 option $9M /$5M buyout. $23M AAV. Additional $4M= very little risk in 7th year If situation dictates a trade (and he's willing) AAV gets lower each season so more attractive to other teams. Bregman gets the security of 7th year if needed due to health/performance. $157M guarantee "beats" Chapman's deal AAV if traded 2026= $21.8M 2027= $20.2M 2028= $17.75M 2029= $15.3M 2023= $13.0M
My Bregman offer: $140M/4yrs with opt outs plus incentives and options: 2025: $40M (opt out) 2026: $40M (opt out) 2027: $25M plus $1M each for MVP and 400 pa 2028: $25M plus $1M each for MVP and 400 pa 2029: $35M team option with $10M buyout 2030: $20M vesting player option with 400 pa in 2029 2031: $20M vesting player option with 400 pa in 2030 Total potential for $209M/7yrs. $140M guarantee. 2 chances to go back into the market. Astros protected against a super albatross. It won’t be enough if he’s simply trying to maximize his guarantee. But if he wants to be an Astro it is a competitive offer that in NPV is probably very close to the max guarantee that he will get from other teams.
The problem is this contract has a $32.5M. AAV. Only the first 4 seasons count as year 5 is a team option, therefore not within the players control and not guaranteed to the player.
I don’t see the problem with the AAV, and I know the 5th year isn’t a guarantee, but the buyout on the 5th year is guaranteed if the option is not picked up, hence the $140M minimum guarantee.
I think in 2025, AAV is extremely important to Crane and the Astros. 2026+ not so much. But with an AAV of $9.5M more than the contract I proposed, the Astros lose 2-3 valuable players, guys like Jason Heyward that they will pass on because of the CBT, and then they have a shallow roster again.
I think you’re overblowing the impact of the AAV and undercutting how much flexibility they have. But even in your scenario, trading Pressly and Caratini, and non-tendering Urquidy frees up ~$20M, plenty to add the kind of fringey role players you’re worried about.
The Tucker and Bregman contact talks have not gone well, both would like contact to occur after the playoffs are over.
Don’t be surprised if Tucker is traded before the season. Astros are going to explore that option hard. Tucker with his poor body language in back to back playoffs is a concern.
