Another question should be: Who is your G1 starter in the postseason? We currently have about 3 guys who might be that guy.
I remember the Jeff Kent experiment where the front office just assumed Biggio would move to CF without conferring with him. On that note, Breg could and has played left...
Biggio has a GG and made room for a lead foot Kent. Plus, didn't Arod move positions to accommodate Jeter... then there's Semien/Seager. Talent matters more than postions
Totally different situation, Biggio was on the downside of his career. Much like Altuve his range was diminished. Paredes can play LF, possibly better than Bregs can play LF.
It's not like Biggio was moving to DH because he was so old and couldn't move. He moved to CF, where range is the most vital. Biggio was a special athlete. But yes I agree in the off-chance that Breggy returns, he remains at 3B given he's the gold glove. Paredes can learn LF.
At the time the Astros made the reported offer to Bregman, he should have had as much value for them as any other team. They needed a 3B bat and he has long time connection and intangibles over other free agents. While budget might factor into it (and other teams might be willing to overpay the market), their offer should have been representative of a the market. They no longer have the same need, so any scenario where Bregman is back on the Astros now probably means he’s taking a below current market contract. That’s not going to happen and there will be at least one team out there willing to give him a pillow contract if not a better long term offer.
This is all true Except the need is still there. Maybe not for a 3b, but for a good ballplayer. Altuve, Alvarez, Paredes, and Walker have averaged 136 g per season over the past 4 years. That's 26×4= 104 games. Alvarez has played at least 40 games in LF each of the past 4 seasons. That's 144 games. Then figure pinch hit and defensive substitutions and there is plenty of playing time for Alex. Also, Alex mashes RHP which is an area of need for this team. He also is a HUGE asset in the dugout, clubhouse, and to the pitching staff. This team would absolutely still be better with Alex on it. However, since there are huge holes in the outfield and Crane is crying poor (or at least talking about it), he is a luxury the Astros won't sign.
Crane has moved on, Bregs should've taken the deal if he wanted to be a Stros lifer. Bregs chose to go for the money and things aren't working out well for him. This shouldn't be surprising after Bregs seeing Springer/Correa etc.. move on. Crane's MO is to make a fair offer early in FA and if the players wants to remain a Stro then he will take the deal. If not Crane will re-appropriate that money elsewhere to keep a high end roster. That's how Crane has always operated and how he's operating this offseason. He's been successful with his model so I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt. Although as a fan I know where you're coming from. I've got not doubt that Bregs isn't a 200 mil player, probably not a 175 mil player despite the stats that your trying to prove otherwise and that's with Bregs maintaining his current level of play for the next 5 years, which is very unlikely IMHO.
He'll end up on a Tier 2 (hoping he'll help) team like Correa/Springer...he'll have some numbers and be pretty solid but that's about it.
I am not convinced, but that's why I'm a fan. The biggest issue I have with Crane's "no contracts over 6 years" policy is it completely eliminates any chance of the team ever signing an all star FA in his prime. No chance in hell any all star FA under the age of 32 agrees to a deal less than 6 years unless it has opt outs or high AAV or other player benefits that cause extra risk to the team. That means they must develop them or trade for them. You gotta have high ceiling prospects to develop them. You gotta have high draft position or he willing to out spend to get high them. You gotta have attractive prospects or he willing to trade away bigger stars to trade for them. It feels like it wouldn't be any more complicated and risky to just identify the best and most fitting of FA and just offer what other teams do.
I would not pay a LF 200 million 7 year deal… Talk about an overpay beyond what would have already been an overpay. A lot of Bregman’s value comes in the fact he is a gold glove caliber 3rd baseman. LF, 2B, and 1B are generally regarded as less defensive intensive. Noodle arms can have quite a career there. Right field, 3B, catcher prioritize cannons level arms. SS and CF require extensive fielding range, and cannons for arms. And for a DH, fielding is generally a tad under the average for a LF or 1B.
So last I read Detroit was “all-in” on Bregman but that there was still a large spread from desired money and what Detroit will do. That to me makes it clear that there is no market for Bregman above what the astros offered. This one is going to hurt Boras/Bregs and they are likely hoping for a miracle to not lose face having Bregs sign for a deal that is ultimately less than what he was offered to return home. If I’m Crane, I think about throwing out a one year deal at $25M.
