BREAKING! Paolo Banchero Now the Betting Favorite to go No.1

I think it's Vegas trying to balance their books and get people to bet more.

Jabari Smith odds at #1 is +700.....huge jump in just a few days

Worth it to throw some on that and the 1-2-3 parlay of Smith-Chet-Banchero...

 

I know. Even Portland decided not to trade their pick.

 

How about the word “decision?”

 

That's why they call the man Stone

 

smith's odds are not +700. It's the opposite. He's as much as -3500 in a lot of books

If it was +700 right now Vegas would be absolutely drilled

 

All the teams in top 5, hell, top 10 are reaching out to journalist contacts requesting articles or "anonymous source" quotes be sprinkled about the internet.

Orlando wants Houston to panic and trade up. If Knicks rumor is true maybe they will be the Knicks and do something dumb.
Presti is the wild card! He knows most people believe all the bigs are going first. MAYBE he really want's Jayden so he is stirring the pot!

Honestly, at the end of the day, I am fine with any of the three bigs but, if Rafa has doubts about a guy like Chet I wouldn't be upset if we take Jayden and figure out the rest later. It really is not a stretch for Ivey to go top 3.

The next 10 hours or so should be fun!

 

Important note regarding Vegas...
fwiw i live in Vegas...

Folks often take betting odds as the odds of how things will transpire... wrong.
Odds are designed simply to get money evenly distributed among the potential results...
Casinos want to see an even distribution of bets made across the board - and base the odds on whatever enticement they need to do to see this happen...
That way the casino has a guaranteed money maker - regardless of what happens. If its team A vs team B - they want a 50/50 split on the bets... They pay the winners with the losers money - and pocket the juice on the winning bets... they win regardless of outcome.

Thats why, for example, I love betting against the Lakers in Vegas... being close to LA, we get a bunch of Lakers fans dumping money on the Lakers (bc thats their team) - so the odds are inflated to try to entice enough people to bet the other side - so the casino can get that 50/50 split....

So moving odds are based on betting trends - not shifts in reality... Theoretically, you could have a knowledgeable informed public that is pushing the lines based on the most likely outcome and not falling prey to the enticement of longer odds regarding less likely scenarios... but thats not ususally how it works... lol

 

If Stone does something I like soon, and trading up to pick Paulo earlier than 3 wouldn’t qualify, I’m more than willing to pull back out, “We’ve been Stoned!” again, and in a positive way. Assuming he does. Gotta admit that I’m a bit nervous about what’s going to go down today. I was up very late, then slept so late that I was sure there’d be breaking news this morning I was 2 hours late finding out. Nope.

Love this time of year. I’ve never understood those who think the NBA “season” ends simply because playing the games ends. I’m on the edge of my seat and I’m not sitting down. Go figure.

 

I wouldn't like it at all if we trade up for Paolo. That means Orlando pressured us knowing OKC will take Chet and they can get their guy at 3 plus whatever they fleece us for. The only justifiable trade up is to jump ahead of OKC for Chet if we think Chet is the legit best prospect for our team. For that to happen, ORL has to be certain Paolo goes to OKC but OKC won't show their sleeve so this trade is unlikely-unless Orlando wants Paolo at 3. I wouldn't be mad at that although none of the top 3 have really separated themselves for me personally so i'd rather just stay put and take who's left.

 

I have a feeling tonight's going to be a sequel of:

[Poll] Grade Stone’s first draft

 

I remember that thread like it was yesterday. Nothing better than posting after a great draft and several great drinks.

 

Ha! Ha!
I hope so. (I think!) Line those gifs up, people.
;-)

 

im all in on Paolo or Jabari . Chet scares me too much , however even in the worse case that Chet falls to us .. we can just trade . Ivey will still be on the board too and between sac and DET and Indiana we can get a big ransom for that pick .

if we wanna get crazy we could trade all the way back to 9 . What about 3 and Gordon for Murray and 9 lmao ?

I’d rather not trade up . I feel like Detroit could trade up . They got some more ammo with the grant trade .. Who do they want . Is orl willing to trade ? OKC ? Us ?

definitely not locked in IMO

 

Seems that Chet's stock has fallen the last week - do you think that something came up in his medical that spooked teams or they are just getting shy about his frame?

 

if Orlando wanted Houston to panic and trade up, they wouldn’t have Woj and basically all other reporters saying Jabari to Orlando is a done deal or making it known that they’d had little to no contact with Paolo

 

It was a great draft night. The last time I was that hyped for one of our drafts was the Yao draft.

 

really... this shouldnt even be a bettable proposition.... someone controls the outcome (owner/gm of Orlando).... The folks at the top of the food chain in Orlando KNOW the result of the proposition already... much like betting on Lebron's 'the decison'....
If you wanna make some money... look for the big money bets coming outta Florida (bc u prob have people that know the outcome placing bets through shill bettors) and put your money there...

 

My big board is #1 Chet, #2 Jabari and #3 Paolo and I still wouldn't trade up. There just isn't a big enough difference in upside to make that trade. Take whoever falls to you imho.

 

You can bet on pro wrestling and any number of other prop bets where somebody knows the outcome.

I'm not sure how they manage to balance this stuff, but it's never seemed to be a problem.

 

this applies to pretty much sports betting in general anyway. Prop betting always has and always will be a big part of it. Someone will always control the outcome and there are folks out there that will always know. It doesn't really matter. Betting is for the general public