Detroit's in trouble. Can't keep Parker in front of them. That dude is faster than anyone in the league and uses his quickness better than anyone in the league. Even though he did miss a lot of his layups and mishandled a few passes, proving he could get into the lane so easily keep Detroit on their heels. Chauncey outplayed him but it made no difference, they have to start knocking him on his ass. Manu flops, so what? That dude's an awesome player that keeps winning everywhere he goes, one of the most creative players in the league. If they don't find a way to contain him, especially in the fourth quarter, they will without a doubt lose this series. They have to hope he starts missing those crazy layups. Tim Duncan was his usual self, dominating the paint offensively and defensively, and in doing so dominating the game. See, that's how real bigs get it done, not by power dunking your way to a false sense of dominance. They just have to let him dominate and hope no one else helps him out. Oh well, the Rockets will probably have to play catch up in the Texas championship race.
Couple of notes and observations. 1) Chancey still ripped the Spurs and was clearly better than Parker. More points, higher shooting, fewer TOs, more assists, more steals, on and on. Parker did play pretty well and I would say represented himself well, but let's not get carried away and say he won the match-up or was the better player. 2) Just 1 game, Detroit didn't have near as much energy as the Spurs, particularly as the game went on. Giving up 15ORB and losing the rebound battle 35 to 49 rebounds is not going to cut it for Detroit. For the highest % rebounding team in the league (.522 in the regular season), that shows lack of energy. The Spurs are an outstanding rebounding team too, but it should be "even". If either teams wins the board likes this they will win that particular game. 3) This isn't the first loss or first time trailing a series by Detroit. They have bounced back every time. 4) If you know Rip's game, you know he got a lot of looks he normally makes (could have made that 7 out of 21, 10 or 11 at of 21 easily). He just sucked all the way around but with not get down on himself like Shawn Pea-Nuts Marion. Some is defense (but he was playing excellent defense versus Mia and Indy)--and some his game was just off. He didn't play well until games 3-7 in the Miami series too. 5) Manu was phenomental and will be the barometer for the Spurs. Granted his two 2 strait charges early in the 4th quarter that were called a block and nocall by Steve Javie (how the hell is he reffing the finals BTW?) was BS considering the plays they called Detroit for charges. But it happens. Those calls sort of sealed the fate of Detroit, but they probably lose anyway.' 6) The series is NOW on. Detroit played with little fire and energy, and only Billips showed up. Game 2 will be very telling. If SA breezes, Detroit is all but done. If Detroit breezes, they will have the edge. If the game is down to the wire--regardless who wins, as I expect, we are in store for a 6 game series. One thing for sure it is on the starters for Detroit, particularly on the road. Let's see whether Rip and Prince OR Manu and Bowen play a better after two more days off and coaching adjustments--these 4 wing players will probably decide it.
One note and observation: Detroit better win game two to get an advantage because if they lose game two it's highly unlikely they'll be able to hold serve on all three consecutive games in Detroit and if they come back to SA down 3 -2 they are in a world of hurt.
Good analysis. However, 1) I do think that you also have to give Duncan a clear edge over Rasheed. Amazing, as the Pistons win the pf matchup against virtualy any other team; also 2) the Spurs are much deeper. Horry, Barry and as we saw Big Dog and Brown. The Spurs are just too deep, so it really doesn't just depend on Bowen, a possible weak link, matching up with Prince.
Oh absolutely I give Duncan the edge over Sheed. Maybe not as big of edge as Duncan gets on most guys, but still a big edge. But Billips and Ben get the edge over Parker and Nazr. Unless Duncan goes off, more or less the Wallaces/CB and TD/Nazr/Parker shoud cancel each other out--leading to the wing players making the difference. Both Rip and Prince (who looked worn and only played 32 minutes?) had very bad all around games. If they keep that poor lifeless play up, or SA keeps them down, or some combination of both, Detroit is not only not going to win the series they may not even make it much of a series. But I expect them to play much better on offense and defense, and I bet even money Manu does not hit 26points on above 60% shooting any further game in this series, Kobe went off in game 2 versus them last year, and then no more. We will see. One more thing, Detroit was playing great defense until late 3rd quarter and overall played well with their starters in (got a big lead when they were focused, hustling all over, and crashing the boards). The awefull play of Hunter, Arroyo and McDyess at the end of the 1st quarter and in the 2nd half killed their chance to steal the game and allowed the Spurs to get their confidence and energy. Detroit is going to have to ride their starters a lot longer in game 2 IMO. Hopefully they were just lagging from the Miami series (emotionally and physically) and travel, and that Brown gave 30 minutes to Hunter and Arroyo on a flyer that they would do some positive things and conserve what he had from the key guys to win in the 4th. Obviously did not work. The two days off before Sundays game is a nice break should allow their energy to be better and for them to take greater aim on the Spurs. Game 2 will be a lot more indicative of where this series is going than game 1--be it for the Spurs or Pistons
Scar: Spurs have a better record. They play in a better conference. They have a statistically equivalent defense (if you consider the Spurs post those numbers in the West - they probably have a better defense - they held their playoff opponents (Denver, Seattle & Phoenix) to fewer points than Detroit held theirs (Philly, Indiana & Miami), teams not as good offensively). They have a better offense. They have the best overall player and a deeper bench. They have as much (if not more) playoff & championship experience. Addtionally: The two players in the league with the highest on court point differential at +15 are both Spurs (Manu & Tim). Those players barely averaged 30 mpg during the regular season; now Pop is playing them 37+ - so the Spurs are a "better" version than the one that played the 82 games. This series is not that close. Look at the stats - it's pretty clear.
Most of these same arguments were true when Detroit faced Indy and LA last year, and Miami this year. Miami statistically was by far the best team this year on the single best indicator FG% differential (your FG%-OFG%). That is why you play the game and the playoffs are the "second season".
I think I heard recently that the team that wins Game 1 of the Finals ends up winning the whole thing 70 percent of the time. Sorry Scar. Probably more worth the time to try to predict where Phil will coach next year.
I refuse to put to much thought into this one. Spurs in six just because Mr. Playoffs Robert Horry is on their team. Another ring for Bob. Eat your heart out Karla.
Actually, this is why you have to take into account injuries when comparing team qualities. The Miami of the postseason had a Shaq that was not as healthy as he was in the regular season. Miami also had to indure 2 games of an injured Wade. Clearly, Miami in the Eastern Conf. Finals was not as good as they were back in the regular season. The Spurs, on the other hand, are playing BETTER than their regular season averages would suggest. First, they added Mohammad at the trade deadline that made the team better in the second half. Plus, the Spurs missed Tim Duncan for numerous games during the regular season, which lead to a worse record than they might've otherwise obtained.
And Miami added Zo who had a great impact on them. Detroit was certainly competitive with the full Miami squad—who had a far superior FG differential than the Spurs and in Wade-Shaq/Shaq-Wade had the most unstoppable pair of players in the league. Detroit maybe were not better than the full Miami squad, but were competitive. They were better than the Shaq-Kobe’s team last year that beat the Spurs, though one could argue they might not have been better had Malone not went down. I think they beat the Lakers anyway (with Malone) the way they took out Kobe, but I could be wrong. We will know after game 2 if Detroit is hopeless, if Detroit doesn't play well (worst case lose by a late bucket), yes it is just a matter of time before SA gets a 3rd ring. It would suck (then again I endured 6 Bulls rings), but what can you do, except ridicule the Spurs and their supporters for non-basketball reasons.
Here is what is going to happen in game 2. Detroit is going to drive the paint a lot more and Detroit is going to put a really hard foul on Manu and Parker when they drive the paint. And the referees are going to start calling the contact, because of the aggressive play, and that will shut down a lot of the dribble drive penetration that Manu and Parker enjoyed the first game. It was obvious that the refs weren't going to give Detoit the benefit of the offensive foul call on Manu. There were several plays where Ben established position and Manu initiated the driving contact, with no whistle. Detroit will force them to call that stuff the next game by becoming aggressive on their own drives and by aggressively fouling the drivers. If the refs don't give you the position offensive foul call, then you have no choice but to attack the basketball on defense. It's going to get real rough starting in game 2. I would also look for Prince to get the ball on the short wing/elbow and post his man up and back down forcing SA's defense to react. Detroit is going to sag away from Bowen so he should have a fair amount of shots. If he knocks 'em down SA will be tough. If he doesn't, the series is tied 1-1. If Bowen ain't hitting, then SA is going to bring in Barry/GRob and Detroit then has a big advantage on their offensive end. Both of those guys are sieves. It wouldn't surprise me if Detroit toyed with the zone when Arroyo and Hunter come in the game. They were the biggest weak links and were responsible for most the penetration of San Antonio because of their poor defensive play. I wouldn't be surprised if Brown actually kept Arroyo on the bench and just rotated Hunter in and out with the 2 starters. Manu is at his best when he is driving to the middle of the floor. He always like to start his dribble and then switch back with the cross over or the behind the back dribble to the middle of the floor, no matter which side he is on. Detroit should play him straight up until he puts the ball on the floor, then they have to bring the double from the middle of the floor and force Manu to the baseline. If Manu has the ball at the top, the double has to come immediately and force him to give it up. He cannot be left at the top with the ball in his hands and the choice to dribble or shoot and scan the floor for all available options. Manu is the focal point for what SA does. Tim is going to to do what he does. Detroit plays him pretty touch with Rasheed and Ben. But Detroit's emphasis should be in keeping the ball out of Manu's hands. They should play the passing lanes out on the floor and make Manu work his tail off to even get the ball. And once he gets it, they should bring the double. Playing this way, they will give some alley opp, back door cuts, etc., but they will be forcing players like Parker, Bowen to put the ball on the money, which for SA is a lower percentage play than Manu creating from the top.
1. Detroit does not have good dribble penetrators so drive the paint ain't happening. Even if they did Spurs don't allow dribble penetration down the middle. 2. Give it up. Ginobili wasn't constantly fouling. This theory is the result of a massive terminal case of penis envy form fans of teams who don't have Ginobili. 3. Yeah they'll try to use Prince and Rasheed more in the low post. 4. They probably will try to make Bowen beat them more. 5. Manu attacks from baseline or the middle. They will try to keep the ball out of his hands, double him. That said Manu was ranked nuber one clutch palyer by 82games.com statistically. Another myth is Manu can't go right. belive it he can go right. When it's all said and done, all this analysis, it may come down to Manu wouldn't let the Spurs lose just like he wouldn't let Argentina lose in the Olympics. Could be by the end of this series it's known that if it's close in the fourth Manu will bring it home.
1. I agree but Detroit is going to force the action to the basket. It may be Prince doing the driving or RIP coming off the curl but they are going to force the action to the basket. Billups is a good driver off the post up. 2. I didn't say he was constantly fouling. I said that there were several occasions, 2 in particular, that I can think of off the top of my head, where he initiated the contact on Ben and Ben had the position. No foul called on one. On the other play, the foul called against Ben. If that keeps up, Detroit will start hunting the basketball instead of postioning and there will be some hard fouls. The refs are going to be forced to call it tighter in game 2. 5. Yes, he attacks baseline to baseline, but he is less effective on the baseline because he has less floor to work with and the basline acts as an extra defender. Manu may indeed prove this series that he is a premier closer but Detroit still needs to double him and force him to his right. He is less effective when he has to go right baseline than when he goes anywhere else.
There were missed calls both ways. Hamilton flopped and drew a charge taking a basket away from Ginobili at at critical time. Ben Wallace flopped several times tagging Duncan with one bogus foul. Ben is actually the biggest flopper in this series, always looking for the bogus call to get TD in foul troube. I've seen this everytime the Pistons and Spurs play. Probably one of the reasons Shaq called him out. Watch this the rest of the series. People have tried to make an issue that the call against Wallace changed momentum. Momentum changed well before that and Wallace chose to get the T. When asked later he said he'd do it again, that sometimes taking a T fires up his team. Fact is that as the Spur settled down after the beginning they outplayed the Pistons. Even by the second quarter Parker and Mnu were solving the Piston D, geting to the rim, just having layups fall off the rim.
If the refs call it tighter, wouldn't that limit the more physical Detroit defense more than the spurs? Wouldn't Manu and Parker with their quickness benefit from a tightly called game? And about the Manu plays. One was questionable, but the refs don't like to call a charge when a center flops. On the no-call, Ben clearly had his foot on the line, so they could have called it a block. Overall, I don't see how a tightly called game will benefit the Pistons. Are you talking about charging plays in general?
I'd love it if they call it tight if they call it when Ben or Rasheed put two hands on Duncan's back when he posts up.
