I don't see Parker's, or any one individual's defense for that matter as that relevant - it's the team defense that matters. Kenny Smith used to get torched on a regular basis. I could be wrong, but iirc Parker was just matched up against MVP Steve Nash - seemed to turn out okay for the Spurs.
I agree he it is fine at it, but it is never a 1 man job. Even the best defenders in the world need help on screens. Ray Allen using motion and screens like Detriot will play still put up 22PPG (43% shooting) on Bowen and the Spurs in a tight 6 game series. Further, unlike Seattle (especially with an AWAL Rashard), if you overplay Rip the other guys can burn you. If Horry can play even with Sheed I agree that is a win for Spurs. Both teams will probably limit these guys open 3 point looks. However I personally don't think Sheed's post up game is "as gone" as others have said. I think he can take Horry inside. And if you put Duncan on him (Horry on Ben) at worst he can take Duncan out of the middle of the interior defense. When Horry was playing well for the Lakers he causes similar problems for TD and the Spurs. Also, Ben Wallace match-ups up much better with Duncan than Shaq. It is Shaq's power and physical pounding than gives Ben so much trouble. I do admit it is a good thing Ben has 3 days to rest before Duncan and another couple days before game 2. Couple of points here: 1) Parker didn't adjust to Marbury, Marbury got injured. Even injured Marbury gave him fits. 2) Parker isn't a bad defender. But Billips is just tough, tough, tough. Few guys shorter then him can handle him, Parker is giving up height and substantial strength. It is more a credit to Chancey that the match-up with Parker works for Detriot than a knock on Parker. Still, Parker has a lot more flaws in his game, and is much less tough mentally and physically than Billips. Billips himself does need to stay away from forcing shots, he can put up some bricks, but he seems to play real disciplined as the pressure mounts. If anything Parker's jumper gets shakier when the pressure mounts and sometimes then forces drives that are not there--that would be playing right into Detroits hands. 3) I do think Parker's best chance for success is in transition. Will he get many transition oppertunnities? It is an area SA could have success, but I don't think Detroit will allow it multiple games. I would hardly call 6/5 substantial (what the odds are now). I am guessing that is the closest odds in finals for many, many years (since 94 or 95?). I bet the Laker's last year were also much more prohibitive favorites than that, and we know what happened there. I do think the series will be close with close fought games, Pistons in 6.
What's to argue? Just a few days removed from your heralded spers frontline letting Amare go Wilt Chamberlain on them, you want to proclaim them as Defense Deluxe Par Excellance. I might has well argue with a cardboard box.
I think we're all giving Chauncey Billups a little bit too much credit with this size advantage thing - this isn't exactly Penny Hardaway we're talking about here. Parker's historically a crapshoot from series to series but Chauncey Billups is not going to push Detroit over the top. The Spurs play great team defense. If I had to pick, I would go with the Spurs, but like I said in the other thread, this is the closest Finals in a decade. If Detroit is going to win, the difference maker will be Rasheed Wallace. He won Game 7 for them in the 4th quarter. If he comes to play against Duncan like he did back in 1999 allowing the rest of the Pistons to play their game, they will win. If he disappers, Spurs take it. I really cannot wait for this series to start. This is going to be ugly and I will love every minute of it.
desertscar not that I'll hold it against your basketball acumen but what was your pre-games breakdowns of Spurs vs Denver, Seattle and Suns?
.423(SA) to .427(Mia) in the regular season to be exact. Additionally, in the playoffs Miami's opponents shot .413 to SA's .445. Incidently, Detroit in the regular season was .430OFG%, in the playoffs they have been .435. I think something else belies this however. Detroit of these three consistently have a much lower opponents 3%. I think this is because they are less likely to double. TD and Manu are going to have offensively pound their individual match-ups, we will see.
Gosh, let me try to remember. I missed two 1st round matches as I picked Houston and Boston (I did pick the Washington upset). I was on target that Phx and Mia would sail through the easiest (sweeps) in the 1st round, with the two #2 seed advancing but getting some more resistance. I either picked SA over Denver in 6 or 5, I think I picked 6, and it ended in 5. In the 2nd round I picked all the winners--Mia, Det, SA and Phx (when few were picking Phx to get that far over us or Dallas)--and I think no more than 1 game off in the number to clinch. I did predict Miami-Phx finals (with Miami winning the finals maybe winning in 6?) with both teams winning in close fought 7 game series over the Pistons and Spurs. I had felt all along the Mia-Det winner would take it all, and though I picked Miami I felt if Det elevated their game to knock off the clear #1 team in FG% differential team (Miami had double the differential of the next two--SA and Phx), they would probably go on to win the championship. I knew either Det or Mia would dismantled the Suns--Mia with solid defense and a devastating offensive with Shaq and Wade, or Det with a smothering defense (assuming they beat the leagues best offensive duo in Shaq/Wade) plus solid and disciplined enough offense to kill Phx's running game. Though the Spurs match-up some better than Phx to the EC powers, I felt if Wade was able to take apart Detroit, him and Shaq would be too much for the Spurs, and if Detroit was good enough to neutralize Shaq and Wade, they would do the same to Duncan and Manu. Injuries didn't help my finals prediction (Mia-Phx), but what can I say, I missed them. In hindsight even with Joe Johnson healthy I strongly doubt Phx wins, though I am pretty sure it goes 6 or 7. Had Wade and Shaq been healthy, who knows, my champion pick (Mia) might have been right--but those are the breaks. Overall, through all the rounds, I don't feel too bad about my assessments so far. I was 6-2 in the 1st round and 1-1 in upsets, including somewhat of a homer of a upset pick of the Rockets that turned out wrong. I was correct the Suns were a lot better than us or Dallas and legit top 4 team, and I predicted the last 4 teams player (though I admit 3 of the 4 was close to a no brainer). I still don’t believe a lot separates Mia-Det-SA-Phx, all we know for sure is Phx is a more distant 4th. One other admission, I have to admit I did not know Shawn Marion’s nutsack was the size of a pea and my overestimation of him bringing it when it really matter caused be to overrate the Suns prospects for a finals appearence, and then loss. But I didn’t overrate them nearly as much as most here underrated them.
Steve Kerr is picking the Spurs..........what a shock! He is saying that San Antonio's backcourt is better than Detroit's. What a homer. Billups is going to drive Parker and the Spurs crazy. Not to mention RIP is going to run Bowen. And that's going to leave Manu on Prince.
There are certain players that Bowen has had particular ownage over, Peja, Marion, for the most part, Allen though he did have a relatively good series albeit scoring less points and shooting a lower percentage than average. For the most part Hamilton has been owned and Detroit would do well to reverse that trend. What would have happened if Johnson had been healthy? Who knows. But it's been reported throughout the series by people seeing Duncan around town that he limps pretty badly. Injuries are part of the game. Virtually every team deals with them. Complaining or saying what if is kind of like a general saying "yeah, but we would have won the war if so many of our soldiers hadn't been killed".
btw pretty good calls Desert Scar. I expected Dallas to take oout Phoenix. The East I didn't pay much attention to other than figured it would comedown to Miami - Detroit and that SHaq playing so badly, in part because of the thigh, that it would be Detroit winning. Naturally I had SA in the finals but thought it would be after a tight series with Dallas.
It is hard to figure what happened to Marion, at it wasn't just Bowen. I saw him get matched up by Parker and Horry, guys he should kill one way or the other, and he was passive and the team was passive. Later, he was missing wide open threes. In the end, all you can say is the guy has no sack (he has pulled dissappearing acts in playoffs before, but I thought he would be past that and finally found a role). Not really a good analogy. The aim of war is to kill and maim, the aim of basketball is to put the ball in your hoop and keep it out of your opponents. It would be like crediting the English Admiral for sinking most of the Spanish armada with a hurricane like weather before they had any instruments to predict them in advance. Still, with Joe Johnson healthy, I think the Spurs win. The Suns needed 4 of their 5 starters to play well, with Marion and Q awal they were just an outclassed team, even with Johnson. But it sure would have made in more interesting.
Desert Scar, if Parker has a huge series, you are going to hear it for weeks. I don't know why you so dislike Parker, but he has improved his overall game year by year. I have watched the Spurs several times this year and he has been a big part of their success. I like Billups too. Should be an interesting match up. However, despite the individual match ups, the Spurs are just a tad better in their overall TEAM game. That's the difference. Somebody, please roll out a ball, let'm play.
I'll take Billups over Parker and the Pistons over the Spurs. Detroit has a load of experience, they provide the toughest matchups against Duncan, Billups is much stronger than Parker and Prince is going to light up Manu because Bowen will be chasing RIP around the perimeter until he has to switch off on Billups because Parker can't contain him. Look for Detroit to go after Parker, no matter who he guards. Detroit will just get the ball to the player Parker is defending and either back him down for the post up, or wait for the help to come and get rid of the ball to the open spot up shooter for the 3 or the cutter for the dunk. Detroit in 6.
If these two things happen, the Pistons win. But I don't know what Pistons team you guys have watched, because they don't do those things very often. I've asked for years for the Pistons (and Blazers) to pound the ball to Rasheed on the low block. The elevation he has on his turnaround makes it all but unblockable. But for whatever reason - maybe he doesn't like the physical pounding - he doesn't go down low on a consistent basis. Hasn't for years. And if he actually does (which imo is unlikely), the Spurs can switch Duncan to Rasheed and Horry to Ben. Would Horry be undersized? Absolutely, but it's not like the Pistons are going to feed Ben Wallace in the post so how relevant is it? This will be a series that the Pistons miss Okur... they need a center whose offensive game the Spurs must respect. As far as Prince, he's a wonderful complementary player. But if you're relying on him to create offense for your team, you're in trouble. How many times did he unsuccessfully try in the Miami series to post up a much smaller Dwyane Wade? He certainly plays great defense and can hit the mid-range jumper when open, but his game isn't creating points for himself in the post. Also, if Parker becomes that vulnerable in the post to Billups (which I severely doubt), don't think the Spurs are out of options. When the Spurs were breaking Udrih into the rotation in the beginning of the season, they had Ginobili playing some backup point to give him some emergency experience for a potential situation such as this one. They did the same last season as well. It isn't by any means a permanent fix, but if Billups gets on a hot streak, it's not an absolute guarantee that Parker or Udrih have to be in the game. Besides, if the key to beating the Spurs was as simple as having a physical point guard to play Parker, the Spurs wouldn't have made it past Denver this year (Andre Miller) or New Jersey in 2003 (Kidd).
You should be posting more often Cat.....and in the D&D, too. Anyways, you're right that for some reason Wallace has not gone into the low post consistently in the past and his teammates have failed to get him the ball when he has gotten there. But for whatever reason, the 4th quarter of Monday's game was different. I'm only assuming that Larry Brown et al have recognized their weapon and will carry over this gameplan into the next series. If Popavich decides to switch Duncan on him, then yeah Larry Brown may look for one of the other mismatches detroit has on the floor. And even if this happens, Wallace is going to end up getting 10 offensive rebounds himself if Horry's the one trying to box him out. Personally, I think Billups does have a big advantage over Parker in the post. Parker will be able to get by Billups on penetration, but Billups may put Parker in foul trouble 6 minutes into each game (assuming that the refs don't bite on many of the anticipated defensive flops from Parker!!). Udrih has more size, so he may indeed be more effective. But regardless, as with any team trying to cover up mismatches that go against them (look at our own Rockets against Dallas), the Spurs will have to give up something in order to stop different Pistons players. When Parker goes to the bench, for instance, they are going to lose a big part of their offense. This wasn't a big deal against other teams they've played thus far but the Pistons are an entirely different animal. San Antonio will need to constantly attack Detroit's defense in order to put points up on the board. It won't be the easy layup festival they had against Denver and Phoenix. IMO, San Antonio had a lot of trouble scoring in several of the games against Seattle and that's what I'd expect this entire series. Re: the Manu vs Prince matchup.....it's really hard for me to say who will have more of an impact from this matchup. It may very well end up being the key to the series. Along with which team can force more turnovers for easy buckets.
I don't think Detroit will make a living off of Sheed in the low post. That isn't to say they won't get some points that way. Detroit's primary ways to score: #1a Billips in the post, or jumpshots off picks. We have discussed this a lot and will see. I don't see Manu on him as an option here--at least in crunch time, because then that means Udrih, Parker or Barry play Rip, and that is a worse match-up. I think they will have to live with Parker and help. Whether Detroit can take advantage of the help or SA gets away with it (off Ben W and recover elsewhere) is the question. #1b Rip off picks and in the motion (If he can put up anything close to 22PPG on 43% FG like Ray Allen did it is bad, bad, bad for SA). IMO Rip is the best and most reliable Detroit offensive player and a major barometer of how they do. Sub 40% shooting probably means doom for the Pistons. Mid 40s shooting and say about 17PPG is a wash, high 40s to 50s shooting (18+PPG) and that is a sign Detroit found holes in SA's defense and SA is in huge trouble. #2a Sheed. I do think he can make some plays on Horry or anyone else in the post, but I don't think the Pistons make a living here. I agree with the posters he is not a low-post workhorse. It is a good option, not a great bread and butter option. #2b Prince. Prince is pretty smart and plays to his strengths. He can blow by Horry off the dribble, and has height advantage over Manu or Barry or Bowen. He has a little low post game he can use sometimes. It probably would not work on the physical Bowen even despite the height edge, and surely would work on Barry, can Manu guard in him for the occasional post, don't know. Joe Johnson in a similar frame gave the Spurs trouble defensively--though I don’t think Prince is quite as skilled offensively as Johnson (but Prince is an inch taller and even longer arms). When I put it all together I like the Pistons. First reason of course is smothering defense. Second is offensive versatility. They do not have great offense, but they almost always have some advantages out there to produce points in tight affairs. On Parker, I think he is a good player maximized in the system he plays in. I think he very much overrated as point guard, particularly as a half court player or in terms of being a disciplined traditional PG. I think in transition he is fantastic. But in the half court, with a shaky jumpshot outside of 20 feet, very poor FT shooter for a PG, and being prone to drive too deep, I think against a great half court defense he is not a special player at all. An aside, so many on the Rocket board have crucified SF and Cat over the years, and have brought him (Parker) up as the opposite kind of player, and I think it is somewhat a dubious claim. I think TD, Pop and the Spurs system use him the right way (in the transition a lot, simple offensive sets) and don’t force him to be disciplined or the set up man for other guys demanding great floor sense (Manu or TD, even Horry or Barry, have much more floor sense), so it kind of works. But in lots of qualities--total APG, A/TO, FT%, discipline, floor sense, crunch time play—he does not probably qualify as “good” for a starting NBA PG. Doesn’t mean he isn’t a top 10 PG (I think he is #10 actually in the league), but he gets that far because he excels in transition/finishing, can do some simple offensive sets (pick and roll), and plays good defense. For this match-up (again, I think Billips might be the worst guy for him to play) I am fairly confident Parker will not be particularly effective, as I don't think Det will allow the game to be an open court affair and he has too much of his work cut out on both sides of the ball in a physical half court affair. Final keys: TD versus the Wallaces (TD has to come close to destroy them for SA to win) Manu versus Prince (if this is “even” I think SA is in big trouble even if TD is outstanding) Rip versus Bowen and switches (if Rip is controlled, very bad for Detriot. So let’s really simplify: Whoever is more effective between Manu and Rip will probably win the series. My bet is on Rip, though I admit Manu is a wildcard and could swing the series for SA.
This is going to be one of the most defensive finals since the 1994 Rockets vs Knicks matchup.......and I'm stoked!!! I am picking Detroit in 7 games (partly because I cannot stomach the fact of the Spurs geting more rings then the Rockets) but mostly because Detroit is the defending champs and are looking to dispell the "One hit wonders" label so they have something to prove. Just like the Rockets of '94 they Pistons never really got the props they deserved for winning last year and that has left a bad taste in their mouth they are looking to wash out with a little Shiner Bock in San Antonio. GO PISTONS!!!
Richard Hamilton, meet Bruce Bowen. He's been hands down the best defensive player in the league for two or three years now, imo.
