Brandon Miller....

But by that reasoning how is anyone ever wrong judging a player's ceiling? It's either that player reaches his ceiling, he's on the way to reach or his ceiling or he never met his potential lol.

Reality is everyone has potential. It's like in the office, you can't look at people and say to your officemate his ceiling is only till a manager while the other person's ceiling is a CFO etc before their first day at work. I think you can make reasonable projections on how players will translate to the NBA, but I don't believe in people making predictions on ceilings cuz we don't have a Stat that says player X maxes out at this level.

 

What makes you think a man who has spent his whole life playing basketball and turns 21 a few months after the season starts but still looks completely uncomfortable shooting the ball is going to suddenly 'figure it out'? How many NBA players got a concussion and/or broken nose and never reached their career peak because of chronic broken noses? He did twist his ankle in the G league but then again so has literally every other NBA player ever. Not saying Scoot won't have career ending injuries - anyone can have them INCLUDING Amen but a concussion, broke nose, and a twisted ankle don't exactly seem like the types of things that pop off the page as a persistent long term problem. If we are only drafting guys who didn't have a twisted ankle then we wouldn't have many players to choose from would we?

 

Broken nose is the least of Scoots future problems going by his family's medical history. And DRose, John Wall, Steve Francis career trajectory. You just like burying your head in the sand and pretending nobody could've seen it coming a dude who needs to jump up and land forcefully every time he wants to score will have a short and injury plagued career.

Ja Morant is a good example. 6'3 with limited range but hyper athletic...where have seen this before? Even without the gun thing Ja is only 23 yrs old but has never been able to play 70 games each season he has played. Scouts never talked about Ja being injury prone but here we are right? But go ahead act surprised when Scoot becomes injury prone later on cmon man.

 

I think Scoot plays more under control than guys like Rose and Wall. He kind of has that start-stop game, not pure downhill scoring. Also, didn't Russ stay fairly healthy through his 20s as the same archetype?

I would agree there's a high likelihood he won't age super well when he gets to his 30s, but don't think that should stop any team from drafting him. That would be well into his free agent years, not during his rookie contract/first extension.

 

Was Chris Paul athletic and short, or no?

 

He had elite quickness when he first came into the league, but his knee problems sapped his athleticism somewhat fairly early on. I suppose you could argue in some weird way this might have prolonged his career, although I'm not sure I'd agree that a chronic knee issue is a good thing for a player's longevity, haha

 

Couldn't you just say this exact statement about anyone in the draft? What if Victor is injury prone like every other player his size has been? What if Scoot is injury prone and can't shoot like so many other explosive guards have been? What if Miller ends up as no more than a role player? Let's just tell San Antonio to draft Taylor Hendricks then.

I'm not even sure what you're getting at. You want to trade the pick for a role player or a Tier 3 star?

 

My point is you cant put ceilings on players and say Amen has a higher ceiling than Brandon Miller cuz we don't know that. That's literally your argument for taking Amen but my point is Amen is just extremely athletic and Def a lot more athletic than Miller but whether he has a higher ceiling remains to be seen. For one thing, he is already one of the older prospects but is still extremely raw and unskilled and while Miller isn't a generational athlete, he happens to be extremely well rounded, is 6'9 and is an elite shooter. Just being extremely athletic isn't enough otherwise Bilal and Hendrix would be neck and neck with Amen for 2nd pick. In fact Scoot and Miller are the two guys fighting for 2nd place Amen is seen as 4rth place pretty much.

 

See that's where I don't think you're analyzing what "ceiling" means. Amen is the best passer in the draft. Full stop and no one else is close. Scoot is a great passer and a better decision maker (best in the class) but Amen has a zip and feel for the game that no one else has. Amen is also the best athlete in the class. Those two things alone warrant a Top 3 consideration, which is where I ultimately think he will get drafted. 3rd to the Blazers. His ceiling is immensely higher than Miller's. The issue is more projection. Miller is the safer prospect because if he fails...he just ends up as a 6-9 shooter which every team needs. Like Jabari. If Amen fails...well even that is tricky. He's still an absurd passer and athlete that projects as one of the better defenders in the class. If both "failed" I'm taking Miller. But if they all succeeded....Amen would be the second best player in the draft behind the freak.

There is a reality where Amen is head and shoulders the best player in this draft class and if he does turn out to be that....we're talking about a gamebreaking player who is probably top 3 in the league. Taller Morant basically who is a better defender. Better more athletic Luka. Problem is that Luka played against men and was a more sure thing.

I'm cool with either. I'm much higher on Amen. But like Paolo last year, the Blazers will ultimately come to their senses if they haven't done so already and just draft him. I honestly think the Rockets have a higher likelihood of moving up to draft Scoot at #2 than selecting Amen at #4 outright. I think Miller will go 4th.

 

And nothing continues to change

Jonathan Givony on Twitter: "2023 NBA mock draft: Best fit vs. best available Should teams look to fill a present need to win a game tonight, or draft the best long-term prospect? @JeremyWoo and I explore both paths to see who teams might consider on draft night https://t.co/USB5Wwiw8N" / Twitter

1. San Antonio Spurs
Best fit: Victor Wembanyama | Metropolitans 92 | PF/C | Age: 19.4

Best available: Wembanyama

2. Charlotte Hornets
Best fit: Brandon Miller | Alabama | SF | Age: 20.5

Best available: Miller

3. Portland Trail Blazers
Best fit: Scoot Henderson | G League Ignite | PG | Age: 19.3

Best available: Henderson

 

Well that's the thing being the best passer is subjective, it's not like being the best athlete or being the best shooter you can't outright say this dude is the best passer full stop cuz these prospects are all in different circumstances. For example Jalen Suggs was touted for his leadership, intangibles and plsymaking but now he just averaged 2.9 ast. So yeah Amen may look amazing plsymaking in the OTE but we don't know if he'll make the same reads in the NBA where everyone is a twitch athlete. Plus, Ausar averaged 2 more ast than him in the OTE how that even happen if Amen was so much better at playmaking than everyone else?

Secondly I don't even know what playmaking does in the NBA past a certain point. Iirc Ricky Rubio was seen as the savant passer of his generation and the dude never really made a huge impact. Imo playmaking impact by itself is kinda limited if you aren't a scoring threat on top of that. Guys like Harden, Luka and LeBron are gifted playmaker, but they can be offensive hubs of their team cuz they are also scoring machines. And that's the issue with Amen's ceiling like I highly doubt Amen will even be a 35% 3 pt shooter in the NBA. Maybe with a lot of practice he reaches 30% I don't really know.

I'm also cool with either but I hope you are right and Miller is the one who falls to the Rockets cuz I think Miller is just better and will find a role no matter whst happens to the team.

 

Amen has more elite skills than Brandon so Amen’s ceiling will be higher. Amen does not have many negatives to his draft profiles, he does not have a shot yet and he gets lazy on defense ….that’s it. If he is just a average 3 point shooter….he is All NBA.

if Charlotte pick Scoot, and Portland pick Amen I will be fine with Brandon because he is a elite shooter….like Jabari?

 

Amen doesn't have any elite skill he is far behind his peers in terms of skillset. What he has is an overabundance of talent specifically athletically and for playmaking. He is far from a polished product if you think 3 pt shot is the only thing he is missing well then, lol.

That's why I don't buy that Miller has a lower ceiling than Amen because he is more well rounded and has more skills. Miller Def has a higher floor than Amen but whether Amen has a higher ceiling remains to be seen.

 

Not gonna lie, I was a bit surprised at how high he got up on that first dunk. A little more hops than I feel like I saw in game footage.

 

really? I feel like Amen has the most negatives out of the top picks, there's reason he's projecting out of the top 3 and he will likely be drafted 4 or higher. On top of his jump shot, he hasn't shown he can finish consistently at the rim in a half court setting, and for a pg, his ball handling is fancy but not reliable. And obviously the question about his age and OTE competition in general.

He's probably the riskiest pick out of all 4, but is the Rockets okay to take a gamble, because it may take off in a big way

 

I have a feeling if Charlotte draft Scoot, then the Blazers will draft Amen. The Blazers love athletic, and guys who have potential.
Scoot has worked out for the Blazers and as well the Thompson Twins, but Brandon has not? I know Brandon is working out for Charlotte next week but no signs that the Blazers want Brandon to work out for them….FRONTCOURT: Brandon(6’9), Jabari(6’10) and Sengun(6’10)…Our defense should be better and our Forwards would be athletic, elite shooters and length.

Tari, Jabari and Brandon…

 

If that happens, I wonder what the price is to move up and get Scoot? It sounds like Charlotte really, really likes Miller, so if they take Scoot I have to think it's a situation where he just barely edged Brandon out. Could they be tempted to do something like KJ Martin + Miller + #20? Or maybe take back Rozier's bad contract and send them KPJ to replace him at SG?

 

I tend to agree with the idea that Thompson has the highest ceiling aside from Stick man but .... I think the odds of him reaching that ceiling are incredibly low.

Yep, he can jump out of the gym & he can make some passes other players can't .... but he lacks some critical skills .... shooting and ball handling need significant improvement just to become passable.

You draft that ceiling if you think there's reasonable odds he reaches that ceiling ..... You don't make that pick on a low percentage roll of the dice.