Brace yourself: Here comes the 'Lebron for MVP' chatter

MVP the win will Harden James.

 

That alley oop to Green with about a minute left in the third was a #1 play of the day in anyone's book, but it's become so routine that even Bill, Bull and Clyde hardly acknowledged it and it wasn't even replayed on the home broadcast.

I remember when Nash was running wild for the Suns you couldn't watch Sportscenter without seeing all the nifty dishes he threw in each game. Harden does the same thing and everyone ignores it like it's just not happening. I really don't understand why there isn't more buzz about his passing, he does the incredible every single game and nobody cares...

 

There is no debate on MVP. The debate is if James is going to unanimously be MVP which is irrelevant because no one cares about that besides people that are paid to talk about it. It is locked up. Have him rest against Bulls and Suns and let's get that home court for the entire playoffs.

 

so fitting

 

Even the biggest Lebron apologist Nick Wright is very vocal that harden is the MVP this season. There should really be no discussion about the MVP.

 

Your statement has some merit, but the obvious difference is.. We KNOW LeBron can D-Up. We also KNOW seven consecutive Finals equals a buuunch of extra games. We KNOW the Cavs haven't won games without him since he was drafted - even with Love and Irving GPing.

I truly hope posters don't apply a similar Whoa-Is-Me mentality in real life..... especially when it doesn't apply.

We already know who first proclaimed Harden as 2018 NBA MVP - despite the numerous Whoa rebuttals. Get a grip.

 

James Harden will win the 2018 NBA MVP

 

The MVP is really the Most Valuable Story. Stats don't matter. Story does.

Lebron has better stats. Lebron is the best player. Lebron probably has the most impact. But this year, Harden has the best narrative. Who occupied the conversation more?

Harden will be the MVP. No doubt.

 

Harden leads league in scoring and bests LeBron by 4 PPG in that regard .. ON THE BEST TEAM. Half an assist separates them, but James has CP3 gobbling up assists ON THE BEST TEAM. James is also ahead of LeBron in PER.

I think the stats can bear out that James is having a better season besides resorting to narratives. People's interpretation of 'value' is what skews the award at times, but Harden is easily the MVP, not even close.

 

Last year Westbrook won it - he wasn't on the best team, he didn't have the best numbers either - he just had a great story. I don't think you understand the award and what it is.

The award is a measure of who helped give the media the most buzz and talking points - who was electrifying the league.

If the Award was the best player on the best team, yes, Harden gets it last year - but if that's the case, then you have to go back and fix history of the award. Because how did Westbrook and Iverson win it? How did Jordan not win it over Malone? How does Kobe and Shaq both have less than Steve Nash?

This year Harden stole the media's heart - and that's why he gets it over Lebron. This is reality.

 

Narrative absolutely is a factor, but I don't think it's the only factor. To win an MVP, voters need to be able to rationalize why you deserved it without resorting purely to narrative. This rationalization from one season to the next may not be totally consistent, but there are some patterns.

You mention Malone winning an MVP over Jordan. Dive in, and you can see there's a logic to it:

96-97:
1. Jazz won a franchise record 64 wins. 9 more games compared to previous year. Bulls won 69 games, amazing, but 3 less than previous year.
2. Malone: PER 28.9, BPM +8.5 (VORP +7.9), WS 16.7; Jordan: PER 27.8, BPM +6.7 (VORP +6.8), WS 18.3
3. Post All-star: Jazz 31-4 record, Bulls 27-7 record
4. Post All-star: Malone: 28.8 ppg (TS% .631) ; Jordan: 28.1 ppg (TS% .559)
5. MVP Voting: Malone: 63 1st place votes, Jordan: 52 1st place votes

That was an extremely close vote. But I think Malone winning was predictable given what we know about how voters tend to think. Individual stats wise, one could go either way. However:

* Bias towards how players/team finish the season rather than how they started it
* Extra credit if team made a big leap forward compared to previous year, without adding "star" players
* Extra credit if player "carries" team after losing a key "star" player
* Some penalty if team has a much worse season compared to previous year, without losing "star" players

Compare that to the following season, in which Jordan won his final MVP in his last year with the Bulls:

97-98:
1. Jazz and Bulls both had a 62 win record; with the Jazz winning the tie-breaker over the Buls.
2. Malone: PER 27.9, BPM +7.0 (VORP +6.9), WS 16.4; Jordan: PER 25.2, BPM +4.6 (VORP +5.3), WS 15.8
3. Post All-star: Jazz 31-5 record, Bulls 28-5 record
4. Post All-star: Malone: 28.7 ppg (TS% .605); Jordan: 28.5 ppg (TS% .549)
5. MVP Voting: Malone 20 1st place votes, Jordan 92 1st place votes

Jordan won this by a wider spread compared to Malone in the previous year. Malone had somewhat better numbers. Both teams finished the season strong; the Jazz a bit more so. It would seem that Malone was more deserving this year. The missing factor in this year which explains Jordan winning it was that Scottie Pippen missed nearly half the season. So him leading his team to 62 wins was considered a bigger accomplishment compared to Malone leading his team to 62 wins.

Ultimately, I think people overstate the "narrative" bias in MVP voting. It happens on occasion -- last season in particular people were overly consumed with Westbrook's triple double feat. But all in all, I think there's "wisdom in crowds" and the winners are deserving the vast majority of the time.

 

Harden James will MVP 2018 the NBA win

 

Rockets about to have a third double digit win streak with injuries, Harden is carrying this team.

 

Who will win the 2018 KIA MVP?

Spoiler

James Harden.

 

Still mad about last year.

Especially after watching Broussard blather "If [westbrick] woulda had 9.7 boards" he wouldn't have voted for him. So stupid.

 

The moment when @J Sizzle is converted is the moment Harden has officially won. We can all rest easy now.

 

I think you are proving my point that it is indeed the narrative. Malone got it in 96 because the Jazz were the story and people got tired of voting Jordan in. What difference does YOY make? Jordan was the best player on the best team and lost to Malone. But the Jazz had a better media story - that the Jazz won a franchise record games and Malone had never won it. It was the better story.

The next year, Jordan got it because he didn't get it before. The Media needed a new story - a new MVP. And while Jordan may have been 2nd best, since they had already given it to Malone the year before, he got it because it was a better story - oh look how they didn't have Pippen!

Very few players win the MVP in back to back years. In the Modern era - you see Lebron, Curry, Jordan and Magic. Curry got it a second time because of the 73 win season was the better story than anything else but the first was because he was the new kid on the block.

I can tell you now that next year Harden won't get the MVP unless he somehow takes a big leap forward but that would be insane. Next year the story whomever captures the hearts and imagination of people and the media. This year it's Harden as people are loving the fact that there's a team that can take down the Warriors.

 

Spoiler: And the 2017-2018 Kia NBA MVP goes to...