It's only preseason but this is radically different team from last year. We don't have a true elite number one scorer but there are hustle/defense guys up and down the roster. Dillon Brooks looks like he has bought into Ime's style and isn't looking to jack up shots left and right. Jabari looks completely different than last year. We have good vet leadership on this team too. I see us pushing .500 this year.
Lakers are really just an injury from being irrelevant, Lebron is finding it hard to play consistently and AD is bound to miss a chunk of games. I mean they have been barely scraping by. Christian Wood isn't saving that team. Minny is a HARD carry job by Ant because KAT is too mentally frail to take the next step and Gobert is....Gobert. Ant is a star that enjoys attention and will be seeking a big market soon enough but Minny depends on if KAT actually wants to take the next step and he never does. Dallas has Kyrie Irving. Enough said. Pelicans didn't improve at all from a year ago. Getting Zion back doesn't count because he's often out of shape and soon will be injured. If you're not improving from year to year then you're getting worse. With that said, doesn't mean the Rockets fill one of these spots I do think that the Rockets will flirt with the playoffs for about half of the year. I think they'll be in enough games where last year they were usually out of the game by the time the 4th qtr came and then they would do their 'fake comeback' song and dance only to throw the game away when the other team got serious. I think this year though they'll legit be in close games and this will be the year where they have to learn how to close and win games. Thankfully, they do have some vets on the team, far more than last year, where Ego was the only vet playing meaningful minutes, we now have FVV, Brooks, Green. While these guys are not superstars they've been in big games and understand what needs to be done to win close games and actually the close games vs what we had last year was KPJ and Green yucking it up and throwing close games away. Also a coach that has experience coaching a team to the finals. I think this stuff matters. Doesn't mean we're going to be a 70 win team but like I said I expect we'll be competitive night in and night out and will frustratingly lose a lot of close games but will be on the bubble of the playoffs for a good chunk of the year until things get really serious and those dropped games come back to haunt us. Which is just part of the process.
This is actually something I found out about recently that it does have some predictive value. Per Bleacher Report Basically, its better to play well in preseason than to not. I think the point differential, even in preseason, shows a team that is executing well and is coached well. Since a lot of experimenting goes on and guys that might never sniff consistent minutes see more time in pre-season but you see even these players are playing hard it means the team is on the same page.
If you weed out the international friendly games I bet the predictive values go up even more. The Kings had the second highest point differential in preseason last year and that carried over. Curiously the Rockets actually did well in preseason last year as well and was one of the only teams that did not carry that to the regular season. It was because kpj and Jalen collectively shot >60% from 3 in the preseason, which is obviously not sustainable. So far Jalen is shooting 0% from 3 and we are still looking great. Context. Anyways, I could care less about wins and losses in the preseason, but my point was how they look does translate.
There’s enough 40 win teams in the west where making the playoffs as a low seed is going to come down to luck. I’m not betting on that one way or the other. I just think with everything we have added and developing that this is not a team winning in the 30s.
Figuring out/recognizing what best works for the group in the quickest time is Ime's goal - and he's using these preseason games to fast track that. He was asked during media day on what he learned and/or what he'll do to improve from his first 'head coaching' stint/job[considering it was a success by reaching the eastern conf. finals]. Only two games[preseason] in and we could already see immediate improvements. Hoping for lots of good surprises - during these 'brutal first two months'.
There will be many teams in the west between 38-45 wins. Rockets can be one of them and with some lock make the play-in.
82 games conducted the same analysis a while back, not sure how the data holds up now. The key analysis is: If a team comes off a bad season, their following year's pre-season performances have a stronger correlation with their regular season. That means if a bad team a year before, perform really well in the following season's pre-season, their is a much greater chance of them performing well in the regular season as well.
Just a reminder. Last year we were coming off an awful season and went 3-1 with a +12.5 point differential in the preseason and then went on to win 22 games in the regular season. Im very, very impressed with these first two games but at the end of the day it’s still preseason. Ready to see the real games to see how real this is.
we look so different! it will be hard to stop us on a nightly basis when you have 5 guys in the lineup that can give you 20 any given night.
I'll give the Rockets a little more credit on this one, at least for now. So far, the Rockets have technically the highest defensive rating in the preseason, if you want to discount the Wizards' 60 point win against a non-NBA team. Last preseason, the Rockets were 12th in defensive rating. An interesting comparison is last season's Sacramento Kings, who were not only 4-0 in the preseason, but also had the best defensive rating in the preseason. They went on to have a breakout 48 win season. If the Rockets win 1-2 more games, and still maintain very strong defensive rating, it could be a sign of sustainable improvements. After all, good defense is generally a sign of a well-coached and disciplined team.
Like others have mentioned, over a 300 team, 10 year sample size the correlation between preseason and regular season is there, especially for non contenders who rest their best players less. Last year’s Rockets were the anomaly not the rule, like I said due to Jalen shooting 43% from 3 and kpj shooting 53% from 3, the entire offense ran though those two and they looked like allstars in preseason which did not carry over to the regular season. So far Fred is shooting 28% from the field and 18% from 3, Jalen is shooting 0% from 3. Those two will both look better in the regular season not worse.
The Brutality comes much later when teams adjust to the new playing style......but it would only be mild brutality at worst. We shall see. Going toe to toe with the best of teams, that is what I want to see. Expectations definitely changed during the course of weeks.
It's just the preseason so we can't get too excited. Even the Silas led Rockets won their fair share of preseason games. But I think this team has a real shot at making the play-in at least if Smith, Green, and Sengun improve. To me, that's the real question that needs to be answered this season - Have the Rockets found a franchise player to build around?
Im not denying the correlation based on history. I’m only pointing out that while there is clearly a correlation overall it doesn’t guarantee anything for everyone and we saw first hand last year where our preseason success didn’t translate. Yes anyone with a brain would expect some guys to play better than they have, but by that same token we cant expect Jabari to continue to shoot 70+% from the field and 80+% from 3. Also have to consider that there’s a bunch of guys who won’t sniff a second in the regular season have played in these two preseason games and have shot the ball well. With all that said I’m expecting a big improvement this year. Just not to the level that some are and I’m not ready to let these two games convince me that I should set my expectations higher just yet.
Yes, but we are not looking at data sheets and trying to guess the outcome. We have access to the games and can observe the reasons why we have preseason success or not. We can observe the difference between silas&IKO, kpj&fvv, kmj&brooks, amen&nix, Jabari&jabarilastyear, how the guard defense and getting stronger makes Sengun a much better defender. We have much more information that a simple correlation would suggest. The correlation is just another evidence that we'll do much better and has some predictive power on how many games that would be. And actually we should be better off than what the correlation suggests because we seriously improved one of the worst situations (silas and kpj at pg) that is unlikely to be replicated by any other team, to one of the best (hiring a top level coach and having no motivation to lose). The two weak points of this roster now is shooting and depth at the center position. If somehow we get lucky with those, this team could easily win 40 games.
I feel like some are reading my stance and think I’m predicting we barely improve on what we did last season or that I’m not liking the obvious difference I see on the floor completely outside of the numbers. I’m expecting a 10-12 game improvement, which is huge. I’m just not buying a likely scenario where we “easily” win 40 games and fight for a play in spot. Some of you are at a 10 with excitement and expectations and you might be right, I’m just more at a 5-7 and I very well could be wrong.
I didn't really read into how many wins you are expecting. Just saying that, correlation is not guarantee of anything and last year's preseason success not translating is not a counter point, because we actually observe what is happening on the court. Barring injuries, I am expecting a 10-15 win increase and think that 40 wins is more likely than 25, with both being unlikely.
