I love numbers -- and one thing I like doing is checking box scores, especially without knowing the final outcome, and considering the differences in numbers between the two teams and making a final determination on which team won and by how many points. These are the main factors I consider, in order: 1) 3PT% difference 2) rebounding difference 3) FG% difference 4) turnover difference 5) FTA difference Obviously, good defense or good offense are each 50% of the game, but it's too broad an answer. I think 3PT% is too obvious an answer too for a poll <--- do you agree? My box score predictions don't always work due to other factors (i.e. number of FTA might not matter if the FT% difference is massive, a team shoots a high 3PT% but was lacking attempts comparatively, etc) -- but the prediction works 80% of the time within 4 points. What is the main factor (besides 3PT%) in your opinion for winning basketball games? Feel free to post the 2nd and 3rd biggest other factors of how games are won and lost...
Forget boxscores. I seek out DD's opinion and take the opposite view of the player. Works like a charm.
IMO, the two stats people overlook the most are TO differential and O-rebound differential. Many times these "generated extra possessions" explain the difference in a game by themselves. A third stat I sometimes use behind these is the difference in 3-point shots made. I take a quick look at those before moving on to the more obvious stuff. Total rebounds can be a misleading stat because it's often just a result of one team shooting a much worse percentage than the other.
The thing about O-REB's is the situation is generally chaotic which leads to defenses not being set -- open 3PA's and easy putbacks at the rim.
