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Both James Harden and Jeremy Lin deserve to be at the All Star Weekend

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by RoxD, Jan 7, 2013.

  1. RoxD

    RoxD Member

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    James Harden deserves to be at the All-Star weekend based on his stellar stats line.
    Jeremy Lin deserves to be at the All-Star weekend based on his popularity.

    I am here trying to position them among all-star hopefuls based on their impact on their own teams (after 3rd returns). For comparison of players from different teams, the player's impact factor is normalized by his team's average efficiency EFF on a 48 min basis, and it is referred to as Elevation Factor. Here is the result:<table border="0"> <tr><td colspan="6" align="left" >Players' Impact on Their Own Teams, Season 2012-13</td><td colspan="1" align="right">(Team EFF per 48 min)</td></tr> <tr bgcolor="#0069B9";font style="color:#ffffff;"><th>Player</th><th>Team<th>Average</th><th>Player on court</th><th>Player off court</th><th>Impact Factor</th><th>Elevation Factor</th></tr>
    <tr><td colspan="7" align="left" bgcolor="#eeeeee">EC Frontcourt</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>LeBron James</td> <td>MIA</td> <td align="center">116.6</td><td align="center">120.5</td><td align="center" >101.4</td> <td align="center">19.1</td> <td align="center">16.4%</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>Carmelo Anthony</td> <td>NY</td><td align="center">112.5</td><td align="center">117.3</td><td align="center" >104.7</td> <td align="center">12.6</td> <td align="center">11.2%</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>Kevin Garnett</td> <td>BOS</td><td align="center">105.6</td><td align="center">105.4</td><td align="center" >106.0</td> <td align="center">-0.6</td> <td align="center">-0.6%</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>Chris Bosh</td> <td>MIA</td><td align="center">116.6</td><td align="center">119.5</td><td align="center" >110.2</td> <td align="center">9.3</td> <td align="center">8.0%</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>Tyson Chandler</td><td>NY</td> <td align="center">112.5</td><td align="center">117.1</td><td align="center" >102.6</td> <td align="center">14.5</td> <td align="center">12.9%</td></tr><tr><td colspan="7" align="left" bgcolor="#eeeeee">EC Backcourt</td></tr>
    <tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>Dwyane Wade</td> <td>MIA</td> <td align="center">116.6</td><td align="center">121.0</td> <td align="center" >110.0</td> <td align="center">11.0</td> <td align="center">9.4%</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>Rajon Rondo</td> <td>BOS</td> <td align="center">105.6</td><td align="center">109.3</td> <td align="center" >98.0</td> <td align="center">11.3</td> <td align="center">10.7%</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>Deron Williams</td> <td>BKN</td> <td align="center">103.3</td><td align="center">107.4</td> <td align="center" >92.8</td> <td align="center">14.6</td> <td align="center">14.1%</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>Kyrie Irving</td> <td>CLE</td> <td align="center">96.5</td><td align="center">104.7</td> <td align="center" >88.2</td> <td align="center">16.5</td> <td align="center">17.1%</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>Ray Allen</td> <td>MIA</td> <td align="center">116.6</td><td align="center">108.1</td> <td align="center" >125.5</td> <td align="center">-17.4</td> <td align="center">-14.9%</td></tr><tr><td colspan="7" align="left" bgcolor="#eeeeee">WC Frontcourt</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>Kevin Durant</td> <td>OKC</td> <td align="center">124.0</td><td align="center">127.9</td> <td align="center" >107.6</td> <td align="center">20.3</td> <td align="center">16.4%</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>Dwight Howard</td> <td>LAL</td> <td align="center">113.5</td><td align="center">110.0</td> <td align="center" >124.2</td> <td align="center">-14.2</td> <td align="center">-12.5%</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>Blake Griffin</td> <td>LAC</td> <td align="center">120.5</td><td align="center">122.9</td> <td align="center" >115.5</td> <td align="center">7.4</td> <td align="center">6.1%</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>Tim Duncan</td> <td>SAS</td> <td align="center">123.1</td><td align="center">128.9</td> <td align="center" >114.5</td> <td align="center">14.4</td> <td align="center">11.7%</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>Pau Gasol</td> <td>LAL</td> <td align="center">113.5</td><td align="center">115.4</td> <td align="center" >111.2</td> <td align="center">4.2</td> <td align="center">3.7%</td></tr><tr><td colspan="7" align="left" bgcolor="#eeeeee">WC Backcourt</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>Kobe Bryant</td> <td>LAL</td> <td align="center">113.5</td><td align="center">118.3</td> <td align="center" >93.1</td> <td align="center">25.2</td> <td align="center">22.2%</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>Chris Paul</td> <td>LAC</td> <td align="center">120.5</td><td align="center">123.6</td> <td align="center" >113.0</td> <td align="center">10.6</td> <td align="center">8.8%</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>Jeremy Lin</td> <td>HOU</td> <td align="center">116.8</td><td align="center">118.6</td> <td align="center" >112.3</td> <td align="center">6.3</td> <td align="center">5.4%</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>James Harden</td> <td>HOU</td> <td align="center">116.8</td><td align="center">117.8</td> <td align="center" >113.4</td> <td align="center">4.4</td> <td align="center">3.8%</td></tr><tr bgcolor="#ffffff"><td>Russell Westbrook</td> <td>OKC</td> <td align="center">124.0</td><td align="center">127.8</td> <td align="center" >113.2</td> <td align="center">14.6</td> <td align="center">11.8%</td></tr></table>
    <ul><li>Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Dwight Howard have negative impact on their team's performance this season so far. I do not think they deserve to be starters at the All-Star game.</li>
    <li>LeBron James leads the EC Frontcourt in Elevation Factor, and he is also voted first in the balloting. Tyson Chandler deserves a higher position in the fans balloting.</li>
    <li>Kyrie Irving leads the EC Backcourt in Elevation Factor, while being voted fourth. He deserves a higher position in the fans balloting. </li>
    <li>Kevin Durant leads the WC Frontcourt in Elevation Factor, and he is also voted first in the balloting. Tim Duncan deserves a higher position in the fans balloting.</li>
    <li>Kobe Bryant leads the WC Backcourt in Elevation Factor, and he is also voted first in the balloting. Russell Westbrook deserves a higher position in the fans balloting.</li></ul>The above results are based on Elevation Factor only, and should be viewed with caution.
     
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  2. pirc1

    pirc1 Contributing Member

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    don't see why Lin should be an all star based on his popularity. He is not an all start this year.
     
  3. Camarograna2

    Camarograna2 Contributing Member

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    Hmm maybe because its a popularity contest. If it was a most hated contest Royce white would own it
     
  4. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    So, elevation factor just measures how much more efficient a team's offense is with that player on the court, as a Percentage increase. I think there is some value in these kind of stats, but using it to select all-stars is taking it too far.
     
  5. across110thstreet

    across110thstreet Contributing Member

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    the coaches will vote in Harden if not both of them, regardless of vote tallies at the end of the voting period
     
  6. BeeBeard

    BeeBeard Member

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    Absurd. You know something is fishy when a good case can't be made for a player using anything but constructive (legal term for "made up") per 48 numbers that are then deliberately finessed further in a transparent attempt to conflate the success of a team with the success of a particular player. Which is counterintuitive to what all star selections are usually about in the first place: outstanding individual play. I'm not even impressed by the sneakiness of it, to be honest.

    Look how dumb and disingenuous we can be with per 48 numbers if we allow ourselves the luxury:

    Tiago Splitter is way ahead of Marc Gasol, David Lee, Russell Westbrook, and Dwyane Wade in win shares per 48 minutes. Forget common sense and every other actually useful statistical metric out there, let's just focus on this one advanced stat I found to make the weakest possible case for Tiago Splitter. Weee!!

    Conclusion: Both David Lee and Tiago Splitter deserve to be at the All Star Weekend.
     
  7. haoafu

    haoafu Contributing Member

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    I think it's due to Lin's defensive efficiency(true two way player), which is overlooked by traditional stats and mass media. However, it'll continue to be overlooked because they are not used widely around the league.
     
  8. Akim523

    Akim523 Member

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    The only stats that should be used in selecting an all-star is the number of fans.
     
  9. Camarograna2

    Camarograna2 Contributing Member

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    The ones saying no to Lin... Not sure what u don't get. It's a popularity contest and we have ourselves a popular fellow.
     
  10. Arthurprescott2

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    "Impact factor" for both Lin and Harden are pretty low... I would imagine Curry's is significantly higher? Parker as well.
     
  11. bongman

    bongman Member

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    I have a feeling that next year, the tall/rich/handsome man will make the all star game ;)
     
  12. BeeBeard

    BeeBeard Member

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    Read the OP. He's trying to argue that Jeremy Lin "deserves" to be an all-star based on merit, not popularity. And since that isn't actually true, he doesn't deserve it based on his play, the OP has resorted to using self-selecting per-48 (i.e. made up extrapolated) stats that say more about the Rockets' efficient play than about Lin's, because the real stats tell a much different story.

    The sad thing is that if Lin gets in on fan voting, an actually deserving player--probably a guy like Steph Curry or LaMarcus Aldridge--will not get in, as there will be one less roster spot available in the West.
     
  13. BeeBeard

    BeeBeard Member

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    In fairness, it's a remarkably dumb stat.
     
  14. haoafu

    haoafu Contributing Member

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    Considering their defense, the stats seem pretty reasonable.
     
  15. 3rdRingsAComin

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    Lin will be at All-Star weekend. He will be Kyrie Irving's backup on the Sophomore squad. Parsons will be on the team too!
     
  16. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    This is Lin's third year.
     
  17. haoafu

    haoafu Contributing Member

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    Is he a sophomore?
     
  18. IronicMan

    IronicMan Member

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    Lin was in the Sophomore squad last year. I would say he won't make an appearance in the All-Star weekend this time around.
     
  19. Arthurprescott2

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    Lin is no longer eligible for the Rising Stars squad since it's his 3rd year. I hope Parsons will be on it though.
     
  20. haoafu

    haoafu Contributing Member

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    Allstar selection based on current season performance is slightly biased. Lowry did much better than Deron before the allstar break last year, and he cooled off subsequently while Deron reverted back to his form post allstar weekend.

    We just played around 30 games out of a 82 games season, and it'll be a very small sample size in hindsight.
     

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