ARod had an off year last year and still hit 35. If he only plays 6 more seasons and averages 35 (which is well below his current pace) he will have 770 (and that is assuming zero more this season). Outside of a career ending injury, he is basically a lock to hit 755, is a safe bet to hit 800, and it is not out of the question that he could hit 900. This is his 12th season as a full time starter, and he has hit less than 35 HRs once in that span, 1st player in MLB history to have ten consecutive seasons of 35 HRs, 100 RBI, and 100 runs. I think ARod is making a solid push for 2nd best player of all time (behind Ruth).
The slap in the face part, but how does one more HR prove haters wrong. 754 HR - "That dude definitely took steroids." 755 HR - "That's all the proof I need. That dude definitely didn't take steroids."
Roids don't improve hand-eye coordination. Roids help healing more than strength... and if he was on them as claimed, he'd be totally broken down already. He would not be able to get all of these "after the accusations" homers, would he? -If roids were the reason? Look at Baggy. Also, the rumor of his hat size and shoe size increasing is totally unrealistic -as in only being due to steroids. I've never taken 1 steroid, medicinal, or otherwise.. and my hat size has gone from 7 1/2 up to 7 3/4 over the last 16 years.. and my shoe size from 10 1/2 to 12... Some men keep growing... and when you ad weight (it's a natural process, look into it) onto an athlete's body... feet expand, etc. Also, most men who still keep active past high school years (pro athlete's etc.) can keep some level of active growth, though declining over time - not as fast as the teen years, until well into the mid 20's... some to late 20's (most men will grow anyway to age 21-23 without added activities which may encourage the body to keep producing natural HGH). As far as that goes... to further freak you out... your inner ear bones stay the same size from birth... How's that for backwards? Anyway, I see no reason to totally kill the guy over something that Jose Con-Whacko "confessed." Way to go Barry. Now prove us all wrong... or right.
i absolutely think he'll get there, but my point is 255 homeruns is a lot of work regardless of how easy arod has made it look so far. anyways i'm all for him passing bonds some day and by the time he retires it'd be hard not to consider him the greatest hitter of all time, particularly if steroids are never linked to him.
So what? If you add 10 feet to warning fly popups, how many become HRs? This isn't true. For simple proof, look at Ken Caminiti and his MVP season. Why? It's not like he didn't work out also. In the 5 years previous to the BALCO scandal, he hit: 33, 42, 40, 37, and 34 HRs (37 / YR). In the 5 years after the BALCO scandal, he hit 49, 73, 46, 45, and 45 (51.6 / YR) despite far fewer at bats. You think it's just pure coincidence that his trainer was connected to BALCO, he took something that looked exactly like the cream & clear, there were calendars and other documents with his name on them at the labs, and his numbers went up immediately after the time when those roids came into being? Seriously?
the problem with trying qualify this record is that you don't know who used and who didn't. you don't know what pitchers he hit the home runs off of were on steroids. haven't more pitchers been caught than position players.
He used, I am 100% sure he is a cheat, but my issue is that it is not fair to single him out for cheating in an era when so many were doing the same. And, I like when records are broken, I hope A-Rod chases Bonds down too. DD
That's what I am saying. Who knows who was taking this stuff and a lot more pitchers have been caught using than other positions. Doesn't that even things out or is there some other excuse you can come up for?
Does it matter though? We don't know who all cheated, but we do know HE cheated. Maybe everyone else's numbers are tainted too - that's fine. But we KNOW his is. If he wanted a clean record, he could have chosen not to cheat. Once he does cheat, I don't see why we're really concerned what is fair or unfair to him.
As far as more pitchers being caught - this is interesting. First off, its not much of a sample size (10-15 total players). If you think it's significant, then that's an argument that few people are taking roids, which means Bonds is primarily facing non-roided pitchers. It's also worth noting that out of Palmeiro, all the players that have been caught are fringe-level players. If you think you can infer that since more pitchers are caught, more pitchers must do roids, then you can also infer that since only fringe-players get caught, only the fringe-players are on 'roids. Again, that means Bonds is in a class of his own. We all know that's not true, though. Sheffield, Giambi, Caminiti, etc all did it. So it's probably not a good idea to try to take the 10 or 15 cases of fringe players who have to use the lower-quality roids and extrapolate anything about who actually uses it from there.
Your math is fuzzy. 6 x 35 = 210. See http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2947658 A-Rod has the best chance of anyone, but one or two fluke injuries that wiped out parts of a couple seasons would make it really tough on him. There's just no guarantee a 37, 38, 39 year old A-Rod will 1.) Still be cranking 40+ HR a year. 2.) Stay healthy till that time 3.) Will even want to still play. The guy will probably have over $500 million in the bank.
my prediction is bold, but it could happen... he will hit number 600 at the end of the 2009 season, in mid-late september or in the beginning of 2010... number 700 would come two years and two months later... say june 2011... he could crank out 755 by september 2012 or at least with ease during the 2012 season...
I'm sure he doesn't care what you or I think. I talking about from mlb's perspective, they really can't do anything
People will be talking about it 50 years from now and we'll all remember where we were. I give credit to anyone that can do something that I can't, even without the roids he is one of the most talented baseball players ever. Congrats to Bonds.
D'oh, I did 45 HRs per year. Good eye. Anyway, I expect that not only will ARod pass Aaron, but he will blow Barry out of the water. I just hope it never turns out that he was on something.
Canseco's been talking this up really big. Apparently he says something about A-Rod in his new book. He won't say what he says, he just says to read the book. Anyway, if he has used roids, we'll find out pretty soon.
