"Blind wine tasting" stats game - pick up to three players you would LEAST want to build around

Not every thread can be as exciting as this one

 

Teaser:

Looks like everyone wants to build around Ray Allen (player 6).





Pretty decent choice, I suppose. He won two NBA championships (although he was arguably not the best/most important player on his team during these years), and he was a 10 x All-Star.

 

Looks like Player 2 is a player several people would not build around. Maybe some people didn't like his lack of 3-point shooting? Or his somewhat pedestrian 16.7 pts per 36 minutes?

Well, he turned out to be a pretty good player. He is none other than our very own Yao Ming. At 22 (two years older than Alperen Sengun is now), when he came to the NBA, he was already pretty good. He blocked Shaq 3 times in a row the very first time they ever met, and some epic battles between these two happened afterwards. At his peak, he averaged 25 points and about 10 rebounds. Sadly, his career was marred by injuries, and despite becoming an 8 x All-Star, as we know, he did not win a championship.

 

Could be retired already.

 

Yes, sorry.

Player 1: Paolo Banchero
Player 2: Yao Ming
Player 3: Evan Mobley
Player 4: Hakeem Olajuwon
Player 5: Alperen Sengun

Player 6: Ray Allen
Player 7: Kobe Bryant
Player 8: Jalen Green
Player 9: James Harden
Player 10: Kevin Porter Jr.



These are their (updated as of today, where still active) stats at age 20 (or their first season in the NBA, if they came in at an older age):









A few takeaways from me:

• When people didn't know the names of the players, purely by looking at their statistical output per 36 and their advanced stats, the players people least wanted to build around were Paolo Banchero, Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. - even though Banchero and Jalen Green had the highest scoring output per 36 minutes. I assume people looked at WS/48 and BPM and VORP.
• Kevin Porter Jr. is simply not an elite, winning player. He produces counting stats, but his defense is terrible, and his net effect on the court is very negative (not to mention his net effect off the court, which is not measured here).
• Jalen Green has amazing scoring potential, but his defense is atrocious. Hopefully, he can improve here and realize his full potential.
• It is interesting that Evan Mobley is a player fewer people wanted to build around than Alperen Sengun, purely based on per 36 and advanced stats. Hype vs. data.
• Fewer people would build around Hakeem Olajuwon at age 22 than around Alperen Sengun at age 20, based on per 36 and advanced stats.
• Early in his career, Alperen Sengun is the best 3-point shooter and by far the best passer out of the group of big men of Banchero, Yao Ming, Evan Mobley, Olajuwon and Sengun. Alpi is also the second best rebounder per 36 minutes of the group, better than Yao Ming, and just behind Hakeem.
• A few haters kept making the argument that Sengun cannot be played due to his foul rate. Per 36 minutes, Sengun's foul rate is practically identical to that of Hakeem Olajuwon and James Harden at the same stage of their careers, with turnovers being very similar to Hakeem's.
• The data does show that Sengun's strength is more on the offensive than on the defensive end, but he is not nearly as terrible a defender as Green and Kevin Porter Jr. are.
• This is Sengun's productivity despite having a hostile and inept coach in Stephen Silas who does not know how to use him properly. Sengun's productivity and advanced stats are comparable to some of the all-time great Rockets big men in Hakeem Olajuwon and Yao Ming.
• Of the big men, when looking at per 36 and advanced stats, Alperen Sengun is the player most people here would build around.

 

Those weren't bad rookie seasons in Hakeem's and Yao's case, and that's why I picked per 36 and advanced stats to show, rather than per game stats. Also, this was Kobe Bryant's third season, not his rookie season.

 

In hindsight, yes.

But it goes to show that, at the very least, the people making very definitive conclusions about the perceived ceiling for Alperen Sengun, when he is only 20 and producing at the level he is producing at, despite a hostile and inept coach, might end up being wrong. His production is close to that of all-time greats at his age/stage of his career.

 

All of this is true.

What's also true is that very little about posting on a basketball forum is "needed" in the first place.

And what's also true is that even when people change their mind on a basketball forum, they will rarely admit it .