[Bleacher Report] Biggest Red Flags for Projected 2021 NBA Draft Lottery Picks

i'm sold. pls trade #2 pick + farm for luka/zion.

 

This is why none of these guys are Zion, Lebron, KD, can't miss prospects. I could see either of them being a bust and I could also see either of them be an MVP contender on the flip side.

So people shouldn't get too worked up on whoever we pick, it's going to be a hard decision as they all do have some pretty big flaws.

 

Even someone like Zion is "can't miss" as an offensive player, but defensively he is very limited.... he is even limited offensively, but he is just nearly unstoppable in the post.

 

Wow, is Jalen Green a one-trick pony? Does he just score? That's leaving out at least 60% of the game. Major red flag -- especially if his defense is weak.

 

Yeah I agree with that. Zion was like borderline can't miss. His body type is odd lol

There are some can't msis guys that do miss too, just to further prove how hard it is to get this right. I remember Greg Oden was hyped to the moon. Not sure how good he would have been had he ever got to consistently play. Greg Oden's hype is the only reason he went ahead of Durant, a lot of people mock and laugh at the Blazers for passing on Durant at the time but a lot of teams were really split on Durant/Oden at the time IIRC.

 

Don't freak out people. KD was underweight coming out of college and he turned out well. Steph had ankle issues, Kawhi couldn't shoot. There is a reason these coaching staffs earn millions of dollars, and that's to develop prospects. Gotta be confident in who you draft and have the team develop them as players.

 

Here's a similar article by John Hollinger.
https://theathletic.com/2666193/202...1-cade-cunningham-ranks-no-1-but-not-by-much/

Cade Cunningham, SG/SF, Oklahoma State, Freshman

The default that Cunningham is the best player in this draft has perhaps not been challenged enough. I ended up with him No. 1 as well, but reasonable people can disagree among the top four players on my board.

Ultimately, the best reason to pick Cunningham is that his elite shooting gives him the highest floor of any player in the draft. Cunningham shot 40 percent from 3-point range and 84.6 percent from the line, and many of those 3s were tough looks off the dribble. His catch-and-shoots look perfect, and he has the size to shoot over any closeout. That perimeter skill set, from a big wing who can handle and pass, makes Khris Middleton-type outcomes seem reasonably likely.

Finding big wings with skill of any stripe is also the most difficult thing for any NBA team to pull off. These players are massively valuable — as the playoffs are once again showing us — and should be the priority of any team’s draft process.

Where I push back is the idea that Cunningham can be “The Man,” the guy you give the keys to the offense on Day 1 and never look back. For me, he’s much more of a secondary creator who can weaponize his shooting threat rather than the guy you play on the ball for 60 trips a game.

In particular, Cunningham’s game off the bounce strikes me as wildly overrated. He has a loose handle that gets away from him fairly often, particularly with his left hand. He also constantly forces passes and rarely makes deliveries that make you go “ooh!” (They’re in there if you look hard enough, but man, there’s a lot of chaff in between the wheat.) He can throw crosscourt passes with his right hand, but they’re not laser beams; the defense has a chance to recover.

Between the lost dribbles and wayward passes, Cunningham had a sky-high turnover rate for a prospect of this magnitude (or any prospect, really), giving it away seven times per 100, and a meh assist rate of five per 100. In fairness, we should allow some for context: The surrounding roster was not exactly an offensive juggernaut and was particularly deficient in 3-point shooting, limiting Cunningham’s operating space and assist options.

As a scoring threat on the ball, he really struggled to get by defenders. Attempts to blow by bigs on switches often ended with him dribbling straight into a defender’s chest, and he rarely got all the way to the basket. Overall he shot only 46.1 percent on 2s. Again, the limited spacing on this roster didn’t help. I like Cunningham a lot better if he starts with a half-step advantage or can leverage his shooting threat against a closing defender. Luka Doncic he ain’t.

Defensively, he’s good enough. He uses his length well and can slide his feet, but he’s not a disruptor or somebody who anticipates for steals. He won’t be NBA All-Defense or anything, but he’ll be able to switch across positions and hold his own. Again, a floor as a high-level 3-and-D guy is pretty darned good. It’s just may not be what we’re used to for the top overall pick.

Cunningham is also a cool, unflappable customer with a penchant for big shots. He is clearly an NBA starter from Day 1, and the possibilities of elite shooting gives him Jayson Tatum upside. His inability to beat defenders off the dribble may not matter if he’s rising up for 30-footers against them.

Overall, he’s my pick here. But it’s not the home run some make it out to be, and I’m hoping the team drafting him has another playmaker.

Evan Mobley, PF/C, USC, Freshman

Even when the game is going small, Mobley has an argument to be the top pick. His basic premise is that he can do most of the things perimeter guys can, but he’s the size of a center. You can make an argument that Mobley is better at self-created shots inside the 3-point line than Cunningham is, and is also better at defending the perimeter. We call Mobley a “big” and Cunningham a “wing,” but other than Cunningham’s shooting, Mobley is better at most of the wing stuff, too.

In 2021, however, a big has to be pretty darned good to make a case for himself as being more valuable than a wing with size. Surely there are exceptions — Nikola Jokic won the MVP award, and Joel Embiid was the East’s most dominant player this season — but the bar is higher for bigs.

Mobley is fortunately the right kind of big because it is going to be very hard to play him off the court in the playoffs. His skinny frame, skill set and defensive mobility almost immediately conjure images of Chris Bosh. In particular, some of his defensive clips had me cackling, as guards embarrassed themselves trying to take him off the bounce. He’s great at keeping his feet moving and using his length to contest shots when picking up guards in switches.

That said, you wish Mobley was better at some of the things that actually involve being big. He’s not notably good at posting up, owing in part to his very slender frame. His rebound rate was unimpressive, and he gets pushed around near the basket, where his thin frame becomes a liability. Statistically, he’s a good-but-not-great shot blocker, although that partly results from how often he had to defend on the perimeter. His motor doesn’t always run super hot, either.

Offensively, Mobley hints at upside in all kinds of directions but doesn’t have one overwhelming skill at the moment. As noted above, he’s pretty good when he can attack off the bounce, even against guards. He can put the ball on the floor, score off the dribble as a driver from the free-throw area and finish near the cup. He shows rudiments of stretch ability, making 12 3-pointers on the season and shooting 69.4 percent from the line, and his form suggests he can at least become a break-even proposition as a shooter.

Mobley has All-Star upside, with shades of Bosh and Pau Gasol in his game, but he has work ahead of him to get there.


Jalen Green, SG, G League Ignite

A medium-risk, high-reward type pick, Green is a skinny, athletic shooting guard with blast-off quickness and elite leaping ability. You can’t teach this stuff, and it’s why he’s a certain high lottery pick. He’s the one guy who made the most “holy ****” plays in this draft, with fast-twitch hops reminiscent of Zach LaVine.

Green got off to a slow start in the G League but really picked up his play toward the end, figuring out how to take advantage of his speed and leaping ability to get to the rim. His weaknesses right now are all skill-based. He has to play off the ball because his handle isn’t advanced; he frequently lost his dribble making relatively basic moves in pick-and-roll. His shooting is decent but hardly great, and he relies too much on stepback 3s because he lacks advanced maneuvers with the rock. As a passer, he’s capable of basic reads, but that part of his game is still coming around. He’s not selfish; he just doesn’t have the whole picture yet.

He is decent defensively but not exceptional. Green should be able to dart into passing lines more often than he does, and his first slide actually looks slow — it’s surprising how often he was beaten off the dribble. However, he competed, and he has the athleticism to surprise shooters with shot challenges.

Green is only 19 and was a good-but-not-great G League player last season, so we’re talking about a developmental pick here. But his ceiling is high enough to make it worthwhile.

Jalen Suggs, PG, Gonzaga, Freshman

Suggs reminds me of Jason Kidd in a lot of ways, although the passing is more solid than spectacular. He has pretty good size for a point guard and great end-to-end speed, plus he has absolutely tremendous anticipation at the defensive end. Suggs reads the game almost like a defensive back, closing on the ball with speed to intercept passes. His feet are only average on the ball, and he can get caught reaching, but overall, he projects as a tough defender.

Offensively, his pace in transition is an obvious benefit that helps grease the way to easy baskets, but his half-court game remains a work in progress. Suggs shot 33.7 percent from 3 and 75.4 percent from the line, so teams will dare him to prove he can knock down shots consistently. The good news is that Suggs has a quick release that he’s comfortable getting off the dribble, and he shows pretty good footwork getting into pull-ups in the painted area on pivots and up-and-unders. He doesn’t need to improve his percentages that much to turn the shooting from a liability to a strength.

Bigger picture, the upside as an elite offensive player is maybe a bit limited by the shooting and the lack of elite pick-and-roll craft. That’s why Suggs is a bit lower on my board than some others. After my top five prospects, however, Suggs is the obvious pick due to his long-term starter potential and fairly high floor for such a young player.

 

Im not worried the least bit about a scoring guard being asked to be a better passer LOL. Jalen Green will have one job in the NBA and he will be one of the best at it.

Green slacked on his D in the only playoff game the Ignite played, a good learning experience after having an average season defending grown ass men for the first time.

Cant wait to see CAde, Mobley and Suggs in their first game against grumpy, old men. Should be fun.

 

Just my personal opinion. I'll preface that more information is always good. Since Rockets has been a winning team (not lottery) for so long that there's a higher phobia for 'bust-ability'. Every fan base has this, but it feels it's higher here, and maybe that's because we're not used to being in this situation.

But one thing that is consistent among scouts, is that this year, the floor on the top prospects is supposedly much better than other recent years. This isn't to say, the top guys won't bust; in fact I expect at least few in the top TEN to bust or be 'meh'.

I kind of shrugged on most of of the bad stuff itself since the 'cons' has been circulated already from reports that I've read (weeks ago),

Most of the things pointed out, a player could be improve on once they get into the league.

Would not call it 'BIG red flags' as much as maybe 'opportunity for improvement, if it is actually an issue'. Also it's OK to draft a guy that will be a solid contributor, lot of people (including myself at times), are thinking the top 2 guy must be a savior.

 

KD is still underweight.

 

League is softer, more room for slim reaper. Even guards who are thin, Trae, Young Steph, young Dame, were all thin... being thin is less of a knock than it was in the 90's.

Strength is nice, but on a spectrum, one can argue speed is more favored in modern NBA.

I said this in other threads. it's easy to put on muscle. it's harder to lose weight once you gain them.

Strengthen conditioning is important, you can build lean muscles. They can be pliable lean muscles. Better the body to withstand a NBA schedule and prevent injuries.

 

He is a scorer with multiple skills and his passing is getting better. He isn't afraid of contact unlike Mobley. He can get a few steals. There is no doubt he needs to get stronger and play defense. His upside is higher than Zach Lavine. I believe the workouts, physical measurements, and psychological testing will determine the number 2 pick. There is no clear cut winner here.

 

The pick is Green.

These are all just fluff pieces b/c people are over-anxious that they have to wait over a month to see how it plays out.

Green has basketball intangibles, potent self-awareness, the will to improve his weaknesses, and wants to be great.

Anyone as athletic as he is with a mindset like that can become an adequate defender.

Yes, it will require some growing pains, but those are necessary for the young guys to realize they need to improve their game.

 

I think his evaluation is pretty spot on. Especially with Cunningham and Mobley.

Cunningham was not supposed to be a great shooter, but was supposed to be a great facilitator entering college. He was expected to be a player that directs and runs the offense, and make others good. He was supposed to never be a super high end scorer because of his lack of burst and inconsistent shooting.

In reality, Cunningham was a very good shooter in college and had no issues getting his shot off from the perimeter. However, he struggled as a ball handler and really wasn't all that great at creating for others.

I don't think he has the burst to be someone like James Harden that can draw contact or get to the rim easily. He is someone that will need to be very efficient from the perimeter and at drawing fouls.

I also think defensively he will never be elite as his feet are too slow, but I do believe with his size and positioning that he can be a solid defender that can also guard inside.

Evan Mobley likely has the most upside in this draft but his potential is all over the map. What is attractive about him is his size and how fluid an athlete he is. He moves like a guard, and he is easily able to blow by guards or switch and defend them. He is an excellent shot blocker, and great defensively overall with great instincts. His issue is his lack of size inside and a high center of gravity. Is he a REAL 5 or is he someone that will develop his outside shot and become an all time great 3/4? Either way that takes a lot of projection. As he is, he is good but he can be bullied inside.

 

Mobley is only 210 pounds?!

 

Yeah, the fact that Cunningham had more turnovers than assists was surprising to me.

Hollinger only projects Mobley's upside to be an All-Star. I'd say Green has the most upside potential. Likewise, Suggs is the safest pick though he's likely not going to be a star but really solid.

It's going to depend on what you value. If you're looking for a potential superstar then I think it's Green. If you want the least chance of busting then it's Suggs. I'm ignoring Cunningham because he's not likely available to us. To me, Mobley is in between. He's got some physical skills that will allow him to be effective defensively but as Hollinger said, he currently doesn't have any single overwhelming skill.

Who knows how the Rockets actually view these guys.

My belief is that you have to get a super star to rebuild so I'd go with Green. I do understand the appeal of each of them though.

 

Based on what?

Mobley is arguably the player with the highest upside in the draft because of his athleticism, size and exceptional instincts. However he needs to learn to shoot better.

Yes, and he also doesn't really have great court vision and hasn't shown the ability to make those around him. If you are putting him into the group of high level scorers like Harden, Curry, LeBron, etc. you will be upset as so far Green doesn't show the ability to get other involved like these guys. He is far more like Zach LeVine or possibly Bradley Beal or Collin Sexton. Guys that can really score but do little else.

I think he will be an adequate defender, but he isn't as great an athlete as some people seem to think. He is certainly good enough to be very good but he isn't any better athletically than Mobley.

Agreed.

 

every player in this draft has flaws but they all have high upside and have a great chance to become franchise players so I still would draft one depends on who is a good fit

 

Poor sad, frail Mobley.