[BimaThug Memorial Thread] The Myth of the Rockets and the McGrady Trade

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I'll admit that having to pay an "extra" $24 million seems like a lot of money. heck, it is.

But I still contend, when looking at a deal like the Iggy/Dalembert one as an example, it shouldn't be viewed as Dalembert costing the team an extra $24 million. He'd be one of, and maybe the only, "overpaid" player on the team costing that, but it is really the team as a whole that is over the cap.

The fact remains, a ton of teams spend more than the luxury tax every year. Most of those teams represent the good teams, though more than a few have the good fortune of spending a lot for a crappy team.

Mathematically, yes, at a certain point every dollar is really 2 dollars. But conceptually, to me, it is really just that the league needs to be looked at as having a very soft salary cap and in order to win, you have to "overspend".

It all gets back to will Les overspend. If he won't, it will still be fun to discuss trade possibilities, and be on the boards and be a diehard Rockets fan, as usual, but it is only smart to do so understanding that your team is crippled coming out of the starting blocks.

I'd contend that Les has to overspend, and that, his personal financial situation aside, now is probably one of the best times to do so. Other teams seem to be having more financial trouble, and you just so happen to have a large expiring contract, AND your second largest contract then itself will only have 1 year left, etc., etc.

I won't argue that Dalembert should be who you overspend on. I will say, his length would clearly be helpful. He's really a 10-15 mpg guy off the bench, but he rebounds well, he blocks shot, he doesn't try to do more offensively than he can, he has a solid PER, and, coincidentally, his contract also only has that 1 extra year.

So I continue to fall back to the theory that Les has to overspend, now is the year to do it, to try and put together a real championship team next year, and if it doesn't work, you'd have $40+ million coming off the books after that year with Yao, Dalembert, Shane and Landry, to resign how you'd want.

Even better, the willingness to "overspend" and take on players might actually be able to net you a better package, like the extremely unlikely but you never know, CP3 deal, or maybe a Monta Ellis + Randolph deal that works, or the Dalembert + Iggy deal as described PLUS a future unprotected first round pick. Who knows.

Great analysis in this thread. Hopefully once the trade deadline passes we'll be able to figure out what the ultimate motivations were - though it will be hard as we won't know for certain what other teams were offering and might have been turned down by the Rockets for whatever reason.

If worse comes to worse, and I absolutely HATE saying this, but 15+ years of no championships, which included 14 years of not winning a playoff series, and not much on the court value is added to the team, I think most fans would agree the players on the court today are fun to watch, athletic, work and play hard, and decently successful. I don't expect them to take down the Lakers or Nuggets, but if the schedule gets easier, and they sneak into a 6th seed or better, could they pull off an upset of the Mavs, or Suns, or Spurs...I think so - and that's without any improvement (though they could also slip out of the playoffs entirely and I wouldn't be shocked either, though I know in either case it wouldn't be due to lack of effort).

 

CH you were saying that it is unlikely the rockets will want to not take anyone else back because it is a loss of talent. What if they are trying to free up space for an allstar next season. It would make sense to get rid of Scola, Lowry, MLE and 1st rounder for a James or Wade. Or maybe they would take 0-6mil expiring contract so it doesn't affect them next season, what do you think?

 

I think the rockets will go after a free agrent (e.g., Tony Parker) in 2011 summer. By then, the contracts of Yao, Shane and AB will be all expired.

 

There is no guarantee that you can sign James or Wade even if you have the cap room. In fact, the odds of signing that kind of players is very slim It is a HUGE risk to break up a very good core just for a chance to land a star. I don't think Morey would do that.

 

True, but wouldn't they be able to asses the situation before they let scola, lowry walk.

I absolutely love this team but we need a dominant closer to be a contender. I don't think Yao, the MLE and a 1st rounder will give us that edge.

 

I believe this is a very, very important point. Yao will be coming off a really serious injury next year and nobody knows how good he will be. So I think as long as his post-injury condition is totally unknown (which in turn will influence how much the Rockets will have to spend to keep him in 2011) it seems highly unlikely that the Rockets are willing to pay huge amounts of lux tax.

 

Awesome - thanks for clearing that up. Your absolutely right - I knew there was a shared luxury tax policy but for some reason I thought it was rolled into some exception but your explanation certainly explains why it's so critical for owners to make SURE they are under...

 

I think Yao is one of those guys that you keep regardless just because of his popularity in such a large emerging consumer market. Part of the reason Les and the Rockets are making so much money is due to the sponsorships Houston has secured since acquiring Yao("Toyota Center" ring a bell?).... Yao would have to ask for an insane amount of money or be completely unable to play at all(and thus losing popularity) for Houston to balk at any deal he put on the table.

 

Dalembert's contract will be expired in 2011. And, he plays C. If Yao is not healthy enough, he can replace Yao. Iggy is young, and his contract is not that big. He can be a long-term investment for the rockets.

 

Interesting point. But, if Yao isn't healthy after an entire season off should we really make a long term investment in him? Even if he's relatively healthy and only plays 25-30 mpg is he worth it? That's 6th man minutes. If he's playing 5-10 less minutes than other superstars (as well as missing long stretches of games) then his salary should reflect that.

 

If the rockets trade Tmac for some players, it wouldn't be just for this season. Yes, Iggy is a good 2nd option for a good team. But, 2nd option is also an important piece for a contender. Do you think the rockets are able to trade Tmac for a 1st option of a good team?

 

Yeah, I think Iguodala's long-term value is the question here. Is this 25-year-old star wingman really an invaluable piece of a future championship contender? And if he is, is it worth overpaying $28.4 million for one season to get him for numerous seasons afterwards?

If a similar situation could land the team Chris Paul, Steve Nash, or another "elite" player, would Les do it? In other words, is it the financial reality that would dictate such a deal, or the quality of the player?

 

Iggy is a championship team 2nd option.
Aaron brooks is a 2nd option.
Ariza is a 3rd/4th option.
Luis Scola is a 2nd Option.
Dalembert is a 4th/5th Option.

Landry is a 2nd option.
Lowry is a 3rd/4th option.
Battier is a 4th option.
Budinger is a 4th option who has the potential to be a 2nd option.

This team doesn't need a clear cut first option on the team to win. Any of Iggy, brooks, Scola and Landry can go off on any given night. And with Iguodala on the team, Ariza wont be taking the bulk of the shots anymore.

I really do think Trading Tmac and say Anderson for Dalembert/Iggy/Fillers makes us a contender.

 

Battier and T-Mac for Dalembert and Iggy works as well and allows the team to shed more salary than just shipping T-Mac by himself.

 

I pointed this out in the philly trade scenerio, but the rockets can get iggy and dalembert without going over the lux tax. The, point is they will have to do some tweaking and lose some players and replace them with cheaper players. I know the battier,scola,and lowry fan base will be pissed off, but somebody has to go and based on the upcoming contract demands, they're on my list. I really don't understand why posters have such a glue and hard time getting rid of role players anyway, but oh well, here's the blood bath.

Of course everyone knows by now that the cap hold of lowry and scola are somewhere around the 6m range each. Bimathug can give you the exact numbers, but i know I'm close enough. We also know or can project the salary cap next year will be around 55m with the lux tax around 65m. Again, it may not be exact, but its close enough. Philly offers iggy and sam and Morey bites. We don't know if he will, but lets assume he does. I do admit there are other scenrios like rip,maybe butler, and a outside chance of martin that can come into play, but we will use this. I'm not great at charts, so be a little patient.

Mcgrady for Iggy and Dalembert is the deal. Basically 23m for 23m. No 3rd team, no 4th, just straight up those 2 for our 1. After this trade is made, there really is no need to wait for a contender as some may say or the offseason to make the next deal.

Battier for Raja Bell and CJ Watson. I know everyone thinks the rox can get a superstar or a contending team really want Shane. I know the 1st isn't true, but the 2nd might be. The problem is none of the contenders have that young stud waiting. You can scan the rosters all you want and the best name that will come up is JJ Hickson or Delonte West. The rationale behind this trade is Raja is injured and makes 5.25m and CJ watson makes 1m. Both expire at the end of the year. I picked Miles because he's a good decision maker,good shooter, solid backup. The rockets would have his rights and could offer a raise to about 1.5m for his services. Another option would be to bring conroy in as a backup. This move would spell the end of lowry in houston at the end of the season. The rockets could play hardball/lowball which is what the like and if he balks early, let him walk. I know it sounds cruel, but this is business. Going forward after this season, here is what we have in terms of money and players:

Yao-16.69m
Ariza-6.3m
Landry-3m
Anderson-2.3m
Brooks-2.0m
Chuck-2.3(team option)
Chase-725k
Taylor-725k
Iggy-12.2m
Dalembert-12.3m

Thats 10 players accounting for 58.5m in salary which would be over the cap, but under the luxury tax. So now the team has the mle and lle to fill a few spots. I brought up josh powell as a bench replacemnet behind landry. He's a good player and showed last year when he played big minutes, he produced.2m per for 3 yrs might be enough for the 29 yr old. Re-sign watson at 1.5m for a couple of years. The bigger deal is the next summer when Yao and Landry are free agents and brooks is due a extension. For 12 players next season, the rockets can have a payroll of 62m which would still be under the lt. The team will have a young core of Brooks,Iggy,Ariza,Watson,Chase,Taylor,Hayes, and the vets of powell,yao,anderson,dalembert not to mention the draft picks in the 1st and 2nd round fr cheap depth. Its not that hard, but people want to make it out to trying to decide if the team should draft jordan or hakeem.

 

I just dont see philly doing Iggy/Dalembert for McGrady straight up. Wed have to at least throw in anderson maybe even scola.