[BimaThug Memorial Thread] The Myth of the Rockets and the McGrady Trade

The irony with Morey, as I see it, is this. He is so good at NOT overpaying his players, we now have almost no dead weights on our roster.

The only significant dead weights are McGrady and Cook. And they are expiring. (I guess one can also put Yao as a dead weight, depending on how you see it.) So we pretty much cannot dump salaries WITHOUT giving up valuable assets, assets like Scola, Lowry, Battier, even Hayes.

And to trade McGrady for a high quality player like Igoudala, you almost have to take on some dead weight from the other team. So, if you want to accommodate the dead weight that is handcuffed with the HQ player AND stay under the LT threshold, you have to give up valuable assets. This is the dilemma.

So if you want to get Igoudala + Dalembert's contract, you have to give up Scola, Lowry, and Hayes. That's pretty much trading Igoudala with those three guys. That's a hard shell to crack. (Of course, then you have Dalembert's expiring next year to play with.)

The conclusion is, there is almost no chance to get a HQ player from a McGrady trade -- unless, of course, Morey can find a GM desperate enough (and stupid enough) to give us a HQ player without having us to take on additional long term salaries.

 

This could have been the Nikestrad memorial thread.

Hey when I asked for this recap last week the only post was " do we really need another thread on this" This was exactly what I wanted.

I would guess that the braintrust at Toyota Center has white board after white board of all this stuff and I hope with even much more depth along with the possible moves two and three trades in the future. But the one side we will never see is the income side, where the various possible trades have projections about the team's economic health as a result. How much does it mean to the team to get into the second round of the playoffs, how might they effect tickets sales.

Superstars in the NBA are worth their salaries because they make money; in adding playoff games, selling season tickets and selling merchandise. Would Andre Iguodala do that? If so, then the tax issues might be moot, he brings in more than the tax issue costs. If not then it's not a good business decision.

I'm beginning to think that it might be a decent deal at the right time though. It puts the pieces in place to make a run next year if Yao can play.
If he can't then Dalembert's expiring and Yao's negotiations could yield enough room to retool for the post Yao years.

We still might get a better player out of NO though if we play hardball until the deadline. As I understand it they might have to give away assets to keep out of bankruptcy. I wonder how tough a trader a bankruptcy judge would be?

 

Guys, this has been explained before on several occasions by both Carl Herrara and myself, but I'll explain it YET AGAIN.

"Samuel Dalembert's Expiring Contract" will NOT--I repeat, will absolutely, 100% NOT--be an asset to the Rockets next season. It will be a tremendous, horrendous, terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad burden to the organization.

For a minute, let's just assume that Les and Morey end up making the T-Mac for Iguodala/Dalembert deal, with Les agreeing to eat a TREMENDOUS luxury tax bill for the 2010-11 season.

Dalembert's cap figure (after factoring in his trade bonus) will be about $14.2M next season. With the Rockets expected to be well over the luxury tax (assuming they re-sign Scola and Lowry), Samuel Dalembert will be costing Les Alexander about $28.4M next year BY HIMSELF. And other teams know this.

For all of you who repeatedly said what an "asset" Brian Cook's expiring contract is, do you still think that he could land the Rockets an asset of any kind? I can assure you that, barring a major trade that somehow gets the Rockets below the luxury tax threshold, the Rockets will have to pay another team cash in excess of Cook's remaining salary, as well as a future draft pick, in order to dump Brian Cook. That, my friends, is the complete OPPOSITE of being an asset.

The Utah Jazz had what many here would describe as a significant asset: Matt Harpring's $6.5M expiring contract, much of which is covered by insurance. Similar to Cuttino Mobley's contract for the Knicks. On a team well below the luxury tax threshold, the Harpring Contract would have been a very nice asset. Unfortunately, however, the Jazz are way over the tax threshold this season and need to dump salary; and other teams knew this. So, rather than the Harpring Contract being an "asset", the Jazz had to give up Eric Maynor, a very promising rookie first rounder, in order to dump the Harpring Contract.

Les Alexander and the Houston Rockets will be in the exact same position next season as the Jazz are in now, except that the Rockets would be EVEN FURTHER over the tax threshold. If a $6.5M, insurance-covered contract actually required the Jazz to give up not just a first round pick but one who has already played in NBA games and proven to be a good young NBA player, then what the hell do you think it will cost the Rockets to unload Dalembert's $14.2M contract next season???

Les will not want to take on any further long-term salaries, nor will he want to take on any increased payroll that season. Even with Battier's contract coming off the books, Landry and Brooks will each be up for huge pay raises that will combine to be much more than Battier's $7.4M salary in 2010-11.

Bottom line: If the Rockets decide that it is in the franchise's best interests to take on Dalembert's terrible contract in order to get a terrific young player like Andre Iguodala, then so be it. But do not kid yourselves into thinking that Dalembert's expiring contract will in any way, shape or form be an "asset" to the Rockets organization. It will be a huge, stinking, rotting albatross around Morey's neck for a year. That's about it.

 

As you've stated before, if people want the iggy dalmbert combo, say goodbye to scola,lowry, and they would have to or try to trade shane in the offseason. I can almost bet you right now if the rockets offered tracy for rip and brown, joe would jump on that deal right now. I like rip alot and reggie miller showed he can play at a high level until the other side of 35 or so. If the team believes rip is the anwser within the next 3 yrs, they could make that deal and still keep scola,lowry and shane. Hell, Joe will probably give you rip and tayshaun if you wanted them. He wants to move forward with gordon,charlie v,stuckey,daye and cap room from what i get from my buddy that works really close to the team. In fact, joe was trying to give away that pick this past year, but no one wanted to get it.

 

Just cutting down the other stuff to get to the meat of the post......sometimes your point gets lost in the wordiness of your posts Bima.

Again the only way the Rockets do something with Dalambert is to have a 3rd team involved and flip him at the same time as they acquire IGGY.

DD

 

Good point. I always enjoyed those threads, too.

 

I tend to agree with you. Where we disagree, however, is on how easy it will be to find a third team willing to offer an expiring contract or two to Houston for Dalembert in any 3- or 4-team deal to make the salaries work.

You are repeatedly thrown out Sacramento and Portland as two options. While I agree that those are two places that have either expressed some level of interest in Dalembert or are in desperate need of a center, neither team (in my opinion) would be willing to part with expiring contracts in exchange for Dalembert.

I fully believe that Sacramento was only offering Nocioni and/or Udrih in any deal for Dalembert (sure, Kenny Thomas may have been PART of the deal, but only in order to unload Nocioni or Udrih), and Philly balked. Otherwise, Sam would already be a King.

And Portland doesn't really have the expirings necessary to get a deal done. No thanks on taking Przybilla's $6.6M salary next year when he's got a serious injury and the team will already have Yao, Andersen and (likely) Hayes on the roster.

Still, I agree with you in theory.

 

Actually, again you attach things I have not said to me......I have only said Sacremento, not Portland

And only them because I watch their games late night and their announcers have said it on more than one occasion.

It may not be realistic, but it is possible....thus my hope etc.

I think Portland is pretty much in the same boat as us now.

DD

 

Actually, I intentionally included everything about Cook and Harpring in order to explain my point. Sure, YOU may understand why Dalembert's contract is not an asset. But others may not fully understand or may just want examples for me to prove my point. From what I gather, more people on this BBS appreciate the detail I give than hate it. That said, everyone's entitled to their own opinion.

 

Bima, do you think Dalembert has any value at all player-wise? Everyone knows that the Kings were trying to get him months back but is he a talent that has any value? IMHO, I think he does but I don't know what GMs think. IMO, if a third team is needed, I think OKC would be a team that could benefit quite a bit by bringing in Dalembert to be their starting center.

 

Sorry, you missed my point, I do appreciate the detail, but clearly a lot of people miss it entirely.....thus me emphasizing it.

The key point is that his contract costs DOUBLE in tax, and actually depending upon how far over the team is, they may pay a lot more in penalties.....

And when you are in lux tax land, you not only pay penatlies, but you no longer participate in the spreading out of those penalties paid by other NBA teams also over the Lux Tax line.

So the Rockets have to pay, and miss out on income too, a double whammy.

DD

 

So, what if Golden State stinks it up next year and wants to dump Maggette or Monta or Biedrins.......all guys with long term money owed. Do you think they would be interested in taking Dalembert at $14.2 million expiring and giving up Maggette, Turiaf, and Anthony Randolph????

Or How about New Orleans seeking to save money and get out from under Okafor's deal along with Posey's deal. Do you think they would flip Okafor and Posey to use for Dalembert's deal if they were losing money and losing on the court?

Don't you see.........this is how we are going to deal McGrady? We are likely going to take back a bad contract and young talent for McGrady. We can keep flipping our draft picks out with an expiring contract and attract young talent that is already proven to a degree (don't have to risk paying a draft pick to do nothing), and an expiring contract the next year.

How about Washington? Do you think they will give us Jamison and Butler for McGrady? I bet they would do that this year. What does that leave us with? It leaves us with a ton of talent that can be traded for a superstar. Lebron, DWade, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, or CP3 want Houston??? We've got the talent to trade to their teams to get them here.

Utah wanted to dump salary because they didn't want to pay the tax. We are coming up on the opportunity to put a championship caliber team around Yao. That is next season, after Yao has had a year of rest. Morey is looking to pick up talent that he can trade for an unhappy superstar to land beside Yao and still have quality talent left around Yao. Dalembert's contract could have value to a team wanting to rebuild next season and looking to dump their big contracts the same as Philly and Washington are trying to do this year.

 

In fact, we have the MOST dead weights on the roster.

TMAC+Dorsey+Cook= $28M dead weight.<-------this is significant, huge, leagues' No.1 dead weight, no contest.

if you add Yao onto it, you have the largest ever dead weight in NBA history.

 

Only the portion of the Rockets salaries over the luxury tax cap would be doubled. I think the Rockets would not use the MLE and try to send Battier out in the trade so the Rockets wouldn't be 14.2 million over. Any tax paid should be counted as part of Iggy's salary and not Dalembert's since Iggy is why we would even consider going over.

My quick look would say that the Rockets would be taxed about whatever Scola makes plus the Rockets would also lose about 3 million from not receiving luxury tax dollars.

 

Ming
Battier
Ariza
Scola (@$6mill or less)
Landry
Andersen
Hayes
Lowry (@3mill or less)
Brooks
Budinger
Taylor

That's something like $52mill?

4 roster spots left and about $14mill to spend. I would think that either of Andersen OR Hayes might get moved as a 'salary dump' during the 2010/11 season (if needs be) - which would save about $2.5mill.

So basically we can add 16-17million in salary and somehow still hope to sneak under the luxury tax level for next season.

The positive is that we CAN afford to add that level of salary for next year, and really, with teams losing money, low attendance, and contracts generally geared to increase from this season to the next, it REALLY gives us some bargaining power in making a 'good' deal in the next couple of years.

 

Bima, don't want to say I told you so, but I told you so. That's ok you keep fighting the good fight, guess that's why we are all here.

 

Very good details and I enjoy it

 

My problems with the "myth-busting"

1.) We don't know how much Les is willing to spend to make this team a contender. In my opinion, getting Iggy and Sammy, make us one. Its not as if this is sustained luxury tax hell, this is next year only, which nets us 5+ years of prime Iggy. Les showed us last year he had zero problem ponying up 6 million on the spot for some 2nd rounders.

2.) We can mitigate the luxury tax blow by:
a.) using the deal to get under the tax this year (Iggy/Dal for Mac/Andersen/Cook/pick) which saves us 4 million immediatly in salary this year and gets us under the tax line for x amount and
b.) dumps our pick as well as Andersens deal which saves us another 5+ million next year when you factor in penalties.

3.) If that isnt enough, we can trade Battier for an expiring contract. Its no secret tons of teams are salivating at getting Battier. Getting at bare minimum an expiring contract would be easy.