But not any less stupid. Either a player is a HOFer or he's not. If it's taken this many years to determine if Jack Morris or Dale Murphy are worthy...are they really worthy? No steroid evidence. Numbers that place him among the greatest to ever play the game. A stellar teammate and leader. What the f*** else do they need to know about Bagwell that they already don't know? What will they learn next year that will apparently garner him even more votes? Nothing.
I don't know if this year is his year, but there is so much vocal support for Bagwell from some really smart baseball writers that I imagine he will get in at some point. Biggio is more of a lock, of course. He has many of the same supporters, plus he has that nice 3,000 hits number that all voters will look at and be aware of.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>The one certainty is that the voters, rather than the players, are now the primary focus of the Hall of Fame process.</p>— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) <a href="https://twitter.com/joe_sheehan/status/286969266069176321" data-datetime="2013-01-03T22:56:19+00:00">January 3, 2013</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Blurb from Bob Nightengale (HOF voter): "Biggio is the only player this year whose induction is probable." Entire article: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...ame-fred-mcgriff-steroids-sammy-sosa/1812111/
From Jayson Stark: "Most likely to get elected: Craig Biggio: Craig Biggio had 3,060 hits, 291 homers and 414 stolen bases. He's a no-doubt Hall of Famer. To be honest, it wouldn't shock me if nobody gets elected to the Hall of Fame this year. Not the only 3,000-hit man on the ballot (Biggio). Not a man who got 66.7 percent of the vote last year (Morris). Not anybody. So brace yourself. Too much deep thinking out there. Too many blank ballots. Too many lightning-rod names muddling up too many already-muddled ballots. But now that I've got that out of the way, what's the reason not to vote for Biggio? Bet you didn't know that this man had more doubles (668) than any other right-handed hitter who ever lived. You can look that up. Bet you didn't know that only two players in history (Eddie Collins, Nap Lajoie) whose primary position was second base racked up more hits than Biggio did (3,060) -- and neither of them has played a game since the Calvin Coolidge administration. Bet you didn't know that Biggio once had a 50-double, 50-SB season (in 1998). And who else has had one of those in the past 100 years? How about nobody! So although Biggio might not have been as smooth as Robbie Alomar or as offensively dominating as Rogers Hornsby, we're talking about a man whose power/speed/leadoff talents at three premier positions (second base, catcher, center field) helped him craft a thoroughly unique, but undeniable, combination of Hall of Fame credentials. He ought to be the easiest choice on this ballot. Too bad that, on this ballot, nothing is easy." Tim Raines and Jeff Bagwell: It's still hard to believe that, once I'd finished voting for all those first-timers and long-timers, I had only two slots left on my ballot. But once that tremor registered, there was no doubt which two players I needed to vote for. I kicked around the credentials of four other first-time candidates David Wells, Steve Finley, Julio Franco and underrated Kenny Lofton. I took another look at Alan Trammell. I did my due diligence one more time on Lee Smith. But there are no two more criminally undersupported names on this ballot than Tim Raines and Jeff Bagwell. So let's hope this is the year it becomes impossible to say that anymore. Raines actually has seen his vote total explode by 157 more votes over the past three elections. So I'd bet this is the year he'll finally top 50 percent for the first time. 'Bout time. It took him three elections just to crack 25 percent. For those still waffling, let me remind them of this: Raines reached base more times (3,977) than Tony Gwynn, Honus Wagner, Lou Brock, Roberto Clemente or Richie Ashburn. And not one eligible player who reached base as many times as Raines did, and had as high an on-base percentage as he had (.385), is not in the Hall of Fame. And Bagwell was, in a nutshell, one of the four greatest first basemen of the live-ball era. How many first basemen have strung together a dozen consecutive seasons with an OPS-plus of 130 or better? That answer is two: Bagwell and Lou Gehrig. What other first basemen will you find in the 400-homer, 200-steal club? None. Just him. And if you need your Hall of Famers to be men who took trips to the hardware store, remember Bagwell owns practically a complete set of baseball hardware: MVP, rookie of the year, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, Sporting News player of the year. Somehow, he missed the Nobel Peace Prize. Must have been an oversight. So the only reason not to vote for him is -- guess what? -- the usual: Some vague suspicion of something or other, based on no firm evidence, and vehemently denied. But what the heck. What encapsulates the nightmarish Hall of Fame age we live in better than that -- almost 600 voters, trying to separate what they know from what they think they know from what they know they don't know? That's no way to run an election. But it has never stopped the Baseball Writers' Association of America before. So here we go again. One. More. Time." http://espn.go.com/mlb/hof13/story/_/id/8814530/jayson-stark-mlb-hall-fame-ballot
Every "early exiting poll" I've read places Biggio with high 60/low 70%; Bagwell with mid-to-high 60%. This safely means two things: 1) they're now officially locks to get in; maybe not this year but they've pushed firmly into the "not if but when" category; 2) the BBWAA can suck it - the blank "protest" ballots are probably going to ultimately keep them out this year. (PS I'm kicking tires over at Crawford to see if they know anything official...)
A lot of what I've read shows that it's more likely that no one gets in this year. Biggio will likely have the most votes, but not enough. I'm not saying that they need to go the NFL route where someone has to get in every year...but they need to pull votes from those that turn in blank ballots.
The only encouraging sign is that MLB is having their televised special would make you think at least one person is getting in. Biggio is a lock to get in eventually, and Bagwell is actually doing a good trajectory. MLB.com's 16 voters listed Bags 8 times and Biggio 14 times. I'm amazed at Tom Singer who voted for known roiders, Larry Walker, and Edgar Martinez, yet left Jeff Bagwell off his ballot.
Good article quantifying the level of steroid suspicion for various players by voters who's votes have been published: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...ep-bagwell-and-piazza-out-of-hall/#more-38164 Essentially, they looked at the voters who voted for Bonds (ie, don't care about steroids) vs those that didn't (steroids is a disqualifier) - and those voters voted for other players. Summary: The most interesting cases in the chart are two players for whom there is no hard evidence of steroid use. Jeff Bagwell was chosen for the Hall of Fame by 82 percent of writers who also picked Bonds, higher than the 75 percent threshold required for election. But he was only named on about half of ballots that excluded Bonds. The pattern is similar for Mike Piazza, the former Mets catcher who is on the ballot for the first time. While 82 percent of voters who named Bonds also picked Piazza, only 46 percent of those who rejected Bonds did. In other words, while a significant number of voters who rejected Bonds were willing to vote for Bagwell and Piazza, another contingent seems to be punishing these two players for mere suspicion of steroid use. This group of voters may very well be large enough to deny Bagwell and Piazza entry into the Hall of Fame when they would otherwise have made it in. Hall of Fame voters are not making such sharp distinctions for other players on the ballot. Bagwell’s teammate with the Houston Astros, Craig Biggio, was named on 76 percent of ballots that also included Bonds, but 70 percent of those that did not, which is not a statistically meaningful difference.
I would actually prefer that Biggio not make in this year. If he barely misses out, I think the odds that both he and Bagwell go in together next year are good. That would make for one heck of a road trip to Cooperstown.
It would and was something I had hoped for in the past. Now, maybe it's the state of the current team, I just want something good for the club. To finally have one of our own...actually wearing the Astros cap in the HoF would be a shot in the arm for the club and the fans. It would finally be some recognition of that great stretch of success that we'd never get from the national media.
If Biggio ends up one vote short or at 74.9%, blame this guy: http://espn.go.com/mlb/hof13/story/_/id/8825545/a-baseball-hall-fame-voter-blank-ballot
I was thinking about that yesterday. Though I really wanted to take my dad up to Cooperstown for his 50th birthday (his bday is in July). Jerk writers.
