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Biggest issues this free agency run- metrics, math, calculating risk, and Tywin Lannister!

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by tanviraman, Jul 14, 2014.

  1. tanviraman

    tanviraman Contributing Member

    Nov 22, 2005
    Likes Received:
    I'm not one of the fans on the board that is flaming Morey at this moment, or giving him praise for not matching Parson's contract. I have been a huge Morey supporter all along, and thought he was the best GM or one of the best GMs in the league until last week. But using math as he mentioned on the 790 interview to calculate all the scenarios and potential outcomes this free agency; his team of analytical experts are missing 2 huge mathematical factors-Calculating Risk properly and competitive intelligence. Competitors being Pat Riley(who I will call Tywin Lannister moving forward) and Mark Cuban. And by not weighing on those variables, we also missed out on the most underrated star and bargain in the league- Kyle Lowry!

    Other than his greatest GM move ever, which was unloading Tmac and raping the Knicks, we performed extremely well in the last 3 off seasons. Highlights- trading for Harden, drafting Parsons, signing Asik, and winning the Howard sweepstakes. Only real mistake- Not signing Dragic and signing Jeremy Lin(which looked like a decent move in 2012). Unlike the 2010 off season we had existing talent on this team, and everything going for us including some leverage for being a team with Howard, Harden, and Parsons. However our primary targets Lebron and Melo were never going to really come here. Lebron was obviously not, and Melo was a really low percentage. Morey knew this, anyone one who is a mathematician knew this, and even us average fans knew it was a pipe dream.

    Did we really not calculate what Tywin Lannister and Mark Cuban would do? Being a hardcore NBA fan, Mark Cuban's offer sheet to Parsons did not surprise me at all. My prediction for Parsons was 12-13 million, but max would not be surprising. Tywin Lannister's offer to max Bosh was extremely surprising to me. However I'm just a fan, and I am not a paid professional in the NBA competitive landscape. This is my main criticism of Morey's team, they should know roughly (probability wise) what other GMs can potentially do.

    So all along Miami's number one objective was to get back Lebron and sign Bosh for cheap. Bosh all along said he would follow Lebron. In that scenario the issue was, is Tywin going to pay Bosh enough for him to stay in Miami with Lebron. The answer is either "yes" or it really doesn't favor him going elsewhere. Again very low probability for us in that scenario. In the scenario that actually happened, Tywin Lannister giving Bosh the max should have also been realized by Morey's team before hand. This is your competitive battlefield-you should know that Pat Riley is Tywin Lannister and that his tendency to not give up even when getting a big blow like Lebron leaving, would ultimately force him to max Bosh. And there is enough historical data on how their owner typically operates. If the Rockets are that mathematical, analytical, and stat driven. They should also use math with other NBA GMs' and owners' tendencies.

    Meanwhile the less dramatic move which had the least risk, was to sign Lowry for $10-12 million and match Parsons. This could have been done right off the bat, and saved us all this unnecessary drama. Lowry is a leader and an underrated star in this league. He is ideal for a team of offensive young talent like the Rockets, and a defensive anchor like Howard. Imagine Beverly backing him up on the bench and signing a productive power forward with left over money. There is also no math in the world that can justify that paying Bosh 20 plus million and having the best starting lineup in the league and a light bench is clearly better than still having the best starting lineup in the league with Lowry and a good bench. We may all have an opinion on that matter in which I choose Lowry/Good bench and you may choose Bosh/light bench but mathematically either one of us cannot have a strong argument to prove either route including Morey. And that's my main point, if you're going to bank on numbers-use probability, risk, and competitive intelligence properly! If you can use formulas to calculate whether it is worth matching Parsons, you can use formulas to predict chasing Bosh is not worth it, and signing Lowry and filling the bench is the calculated move. That's how you operate, you've done extremely well thus far, but you screwed up big time this off season! I think the Rockets should admit their faults and miscalculations, especially since the bar is set so high here and in our division!
    #1 tanviraman, Jul 14, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2014

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