That's idiotic. The I-AA playoffs are done and the (non-mythical) NC is crowned before the first meaningless I-A bowl is even played.
What a bunch of nonsense. The Big 12 has proven it's worth year after year, but their OOC is weak this year. The Big East has NEVER proven it's worth and their OOC is weak this year. Who's better? Heh...just like ND deserves the ridiculous rankings they get almost every year? And you're now arguing that the infant, human-defined computer algorithms (only applied by 'computers') are mature and accurate?? They just removed a giant component from the equation this year...and you're arguing that they 'prove' the quality of the big east? My argument is simple. Teams and conferences are 'proven' when they can beat other top programs and do it more than once.
I think if Lou runs the table they deserve a shot. If you are undefeated and in a major conference, even if a down year, you should get your shot. Let's look at the top of the Big East in some nonconference. LOU 09/03 Kentucky W 59-28 09/16 #17 Miami W 31-7 09/23 at Kansas St W 24-6 WV 09/02 Marshall W 42-10 09/14 Maryland W 45-24 Rutgers 09/02 at UNC W 21-16 09/09 Illinois W 33-0 Pitt 09/02 Virginia W 38-13 09/16 Mich St L 38-23 They are 7-1 versus other BCS conference schools. Miami, Virgina, Maryland, and KSU are usually solid teams too--they are 20-10 this year against other opponents. Marshall has been on of the best midmajors the last decade and MSU is usually strait middle of the road Big 10. Think if Texas had scheduled Northwestern, who used to be decent but now sucks, instead of Ohio State, and won. Texas would end this year with no top 15 victories, probably no top 20 victories, yet be undefeated. Should they then be passed by a 1-loss Auburn or 1-loss Florida? Though I think Lou would be screwed, I think the best thing for college football is Auburn or Florida runs the table and plays the TOSU-Mich winner. It would put another nail in the coffen of the existing system, and at minimum push us to 2 + 1 game (top 4 teams feed into a Jan 8th type Championship game). What we need to remember it is not how talented you are, but your record. Beating WV, Rutgers, Pitt, Mia and KSU does represent as quality of 5 victories as Texas can come up with--OU, North Champ (NU or Missou), NU, A&M, KSU or OSU. And the one big chance we (Texas) had for a quality win we failed misreably at home, it wasn't like we lost on a last second play/toss-up game. Do I think Texas is more talented than Lou, yes, do I think Texas would have a better chance versus TOSU/Mich, yes, but none of those things represent your record or what you have earned. There is no way a 1-loss Texas team earned a shot over a 0 loss Lou. That said, I don't think Lou ends with 0 losses. At Rutgers and at Pitt are tough games.
This year? The Big East. Historically? The Big XII. Last year's conference strength should have no bearing on the ranking of the conferences this year. Once again, the past has absolutely nothing to do with the current season. That thinking is one of the reasons Notre Dame gets such a sweet deal.
The Longhorns need Lou, Auburn and Florida to lose. Then it gets sticky between the Longhorns, 1 loss Big 10 team (Mich/OSU loser), ND, Tenn, Cal or SC--but I would think the Horns get the nod. 1 loss Texas versus 1 loss Auburn or Florida, I think we lose out.
So pretty much we need every one loss team to lose and then we need louisville to lose to rutgers and then have rutgers lose to west virginia. Which according to my exhaustive mathematical computations comes out to a probability of 0.00000000000000000004100003010000006
Is it not likely that Texas's horrible computer rankings will get a boost from TAMU and the Big 12 title game? (If those turn out to be victories?) I think if Louisville loses, and UT wins out convincingly, they are definitely in the mix for the NC game against OSU/UM.
It is not that bad at all. I give Lou at least a 50% chance to lose. At Rutgers and at Pitt will be close to toss ups. Bad weather, hard to pass, Lou looked suspectible to run on. I give Florida at least 50% chance to lose. At FSU is possible (rivalry game on the road), and the SEC champ game is a toss up. Now TOSU and Mich only have maybe a 10% chance one or the other loses next week, but it would be great if it happened. Both are road games to lower-middle conference teams, stranger losses have happened. So Texas has a reasonable chance. But we have to remember Texas has 3 losable games left to. KSU (road), A&M, probably NU again. Texas was shaky at NU and at Tech, so take nothing for granted. Oh I think so. Texas will have 3 more quality wins (yes at KSU still counts as solid). More importantly, look at the teams in front of them in computers...ND, Cal, SC, Aub, Flor, Rut, Lou, Mich, tOSU. Lots of common games between them. If Lou loses and Texas wins out, I can't imagine Texas being lower than 5 or 6. This will make the polls more important. Texas will probably be ranked #2 in the polls. I think it would take a computer strong #3 to jump us. Florida would be the chief threat. If they run the table I think they are 1st in as 1 loss teams. But after that? Not Auburn, unless they run the table AND have Ark lose 2 to get them in the SEC game IMO they can't make up enough ground. In fact without a victory over UF in the SEC game they probably fall behind UT in the comps at the end of the day. If Ark losses twice, maybe Auburn can win out (including UF) and jump UT--it would be close. Rutgers? I think even if they run the table (very unlikely, but say they did) I don't think they get close enough in the human polls--remember this is 2/3rds. Arkansas? Running the table and beating UF. Could they then jump UT. Nah, doubtfull close enough in the human polls with memory of them giving up 50 points to SC. Cal/SC/ND surviver? 1-loss SC or Cal almost surely would be ahead in the computers, but probably too far down in the human polls. ND and Texas are going to end very close in computers, ND probably needs GT and SC to win all other games--their only quality wins. But again, no way ND gets in front of UT in the human polls. and the comp polls will be close enough. In short I really think 1-loss UT cannot be caught by them. x-factor. Mich-tOSU loser. If it is a close game no telling what happens with the humans. The computers will have either one close to the top of the 1 loss teams. I would think they would need UT and maybe both Flor and Aub to lose, but you never know. Usually humans punish late season loses, but an epic loss to the consensus #1 or #2 team, who knows. Could Mich and tOSU rematch over a rematch of tOSU-Tex (say if Mich lost) or new match of Mich-Tex, it is possible. A blowout one way or the other would make all the other 1 loss teams sweat less--but I really don't see that happening, both Ds are playing too well. So in summary: tOSU, Mich and Lou control their own destiny. If 2 of 3 loses: Florida controls its destiny. Win out and they are in IMO. After that probably Texas is next, so long as Ark doesn't get Auburn to the SEC champ versus a rolling Florida. But Mich-tOSU loser, Cal, SC--would be ahead of Texas in the comp polls. Would they be close enough in human polls, probably not, but maybe. Ark, Rutgers, ND and Auburn IMO can't catch Texas w/o lots of help. FINALLY There is lots of football left. In addition to the obvious eliminators (SEC champ, SC games), SC could lose to Ore, Ark probably will lose to LSU or Tenn, maybe both. Aub has the Iron Bowl and Georgia--rivals who will salvage their season with wins--very loseable. Flor could lose at FSU (desperate rival) or versus SCar (who have been in most every game) before making the SEC champ game. Lou could lose at Rut, at Pitt or yes, even home vs S Florida (6-3, playing well). Even if Rut beats Lou will will be big dogs at WV. Texas could slip up too. The only thing that would totally shock me is not having an undefeated Mich-tOSU winner in the BCS champ game. Outside of that anything goes.
