Biden leads Trump. So did Hillary Clinton. For Democrats, it’s a worrisome campaign deja vu

I'm doubtful that Biden will win OH and GA. I think it does show that Biden has much wider appeal than Clinton but I'm not sure that he will end up flipping that many states. Besides WI, MI, PA and maybe NC I think the only other Trump state to likely flip is AZ.

That said I agree Biden has many more paths to victory than Clinton did but even throwing in OH and GA given that they are in the swing category Biden the differences in them are still within the margin of error and I certainly wouldn't count on the election hinging on them.

Yes. That's why I keep on bringing that up.

 

So, we all remember when the Rockets came back from a big deficit to beat Chris Paul's Clippers on the back of a barrage of 3s from Josh Smith and Corey Brewer. I feel like this is what happened in the 2016 Presidential election.

I also feel like having Rudy Giuliani doing the Hunter Biden laptop smear project is like bringing back Josh Smith and Corey Brewer the next season and makuing them shoot tons of 3s, thinking/hoping that it might work again.

 

I think in 2016 people just thought it was over.....and learned a lesson, which is why so many are turning out early.....4 years of a con man is enough.

People will not be complacent this time around.

DD

 

I'm worried about deep red controlled states throwing out or invalidating mail in ballots. Similar to bush v gore, a recount and delay favors the incumbent. Constitutional crisis magnifies that home field advantage.

I hate considering this except that gasbags projection and what they're already doing on the ground in every state makes it an ongoing suspicion

 

There is already a few articles that are stating that a percentage of mail-in ballots are being disqualified.

I can't believe a signature is a freaking issue. Feels like such an archaic law. My signature has never, never, never been consistent.

 

What the probability of Hilary losing all those states? It was not very high. Comey was kind of piece of **** for doing what he did. Did she get convicted of anything? Trump controls the government what is going to stop him from getting one of his lackey's to release something.

 

~chance of Trump winning these states on 10/19/2016: FL, ~50%, PA ~35%, MI ~20%, WI ~15%, NC ~50%, AR ~70%. The 2016 election ~30%. She ended losing by a razor thin # of votes among a few key states.

I say it's a good chance and I say it's a good chance that it has nowhere near the impact of Comey's letter given the # of undecided left and the expectation of what he would do. 538's has him at 12% chance of winning partially because he has 2 weeks to catch up and that polls can be wrong. They, however, like everyone else cannot model in: simply not accepting the result, fighting it through the court, and significant ballots counting and rejection problems - all possibilities this time. It's a very different race in 2020 with different set of concerns.

 

Especially since the Obama DOJ was making sure not publicize the Trump dirt.

 

There is nobody taking the election for granted this year. Lots of people didn't vote cause they assumed Hilary was going to win anyway. Voter participation is going to be extremely high this election, maybe the highest ever. I'm a young professional, at least half of my group of friends didn't vote last election. This year everyone will be voting. 2016 was a wake up call for millennials and this is bad news for Republicans. They will have to target these millennial voters a lot more in the future elections. There's no way they will come close to winning without them.

 

I love ya Air...

But I'm telling you, people truly hated that woman... Especially in Arkansas... I have listened to people and the things that they say about her....

I have a buddy, who's a Democrat and voted for Trump, just because he hated Hillary that much...

The hate for her is and was strong... Not just with Republicans, but also Democrats...

T_Man

 

If the polls turn out to be right you're going to see a massive shift in the GOP. They will have to in order to simply survive moving forward.

You should see fewer dog whistles and more of an honest attempt at courting minority voters and they are going to have to take up something that appeals to younger voters. I can't see it being healthcare or climate since their donors would never allow that but it could be something like criminal justice reform which most people agree with.

Either way, if the polls are correct, the GOP is going to have to change its brand up. Which isn't unheard of as of course parties can stand behind different things decade to decade.

 

Walls and space force

 

If they are smart, they'll pivot on immigration and court hispanic Catholics and try to make them the new "Irish". It'll be hard to turn off that messaging in the South, but I'm sure with enough FoxNews they can and just double down on Muslims and "urbanization". They can focus the "they took our jerbs" on China instead of illegals.

 

They are the new Irish. Letting them in legally isn't an issue. Why do you assume hispanics want a flood of competition from their homeland? My buddy's fam came legally and they are anti-open borders. Plenty of conservative hispanics to court.

 

[Premium Post]
Biden is in a Michael Dukakis nose dive right now. He's collapsing and hiding and Trump is on a strong closing kick, just like in 2016. Early vote totals in Florida do not support Biden at all. Far below expectations. Might be a sign of things to come...

GOOD DAY

 

Pathetic

 

Illegal aliens and moar aliens?

 

Trump campaign has given up on some states, on Az, Mi, Wi, that he had won in 2016.
The size of Trump campaign rallies have been much smaller than in early 2020 in OKC, never mind 2016

stop lying;

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-10-19/two-weeks-before-election-florida

Record early voting turnout in Florida, Biden enjoys a small lead.

​

 

A couple of things have been n touched on. The black turnout should be higher. Black turnout declined for the first time in 20 years in 2016. It was 59%. In 2012 it was 66%. Voter turnout declined in general