Biden leads Trump. So did Hillary Clinton. For Democrats, it’s a worrisome campaign deja vu

I will agree that the undecided vote does appear to be breaking in Biden's favor and one other very favorable factor is the amount of early voting coming in. As stated i will give Biden better odds of winning but that doesn't mean now is a time to relax. What should still be troubling is that with so much going against him Trump is still within striking distance. For that matter Trump's overall approval rating is still around the low 40% as it's been nearly his whole term.

Also will continue to reiterate that if we're talking differences between 2016 and 2020 we have an incumbent President who is saying he doesn't trust the vote and that he might not leave. To me that is the biggest reason to continue to be uneasy about this election. This is one where running up the score could actually make a difference in what happens between Nov. 3 and Jan. 21.

 

I don't think it is ALL about how unlikeable Clinton is or was at the time.

I think it's about how unlikeable Trump is right now. All the data shows his stock basically dropping since Covid became a thing. His response to it has been terrible and it likely lost him any hope of appealing to moderates, not only appealing to them, but now they feel it is their duty to vote him out because his response has been that bad.

You pair that with his response to race relations and now this Whitmer kidnapping thing...he keeps courting his base. Getting drunk at his crowd rallies thinking they represent the majority of Americans when they don't.

538 wrote an article about a month ago about how basically Trump won because he tapped into this base that felt they did not have anyone to represent them...you know, these types that want to kidnap and kill a US governor? Yeah, those types...but him doubling down on his base this election has alienated undecideds.

Trump thinks mentioning how he'd like to be president for 12 more years and "Lock em all up!" is funny but I do not think voters find that all that humorous or funny or are willing to give him more power after they have seen what he will do with it.

I know people are worried this is a repeat of 2016, but it isn't. Georgia and Texas should not be in play, Trump should not have to spend his energy or money on red states but he is having to. The money always tells the true story and the story here is that as of right now, barring some breakthrough scandal that they could really stick to Biden, he's going to get demolished come November.

What he does after that, we'll see.

 

Yes, this is right. Clinton's lead shrunk after the whole email scandal. Trump had a 30% chance of winning, which, if I'm a major league hitter and I go up to the plate with a .300 average with 2 outs and a man on second to win the game I like my chances. It's now 10%, single digits for some.

I think too at the time the country wanted this outsider populist. It's just that Trump won his election and Bernie did not. If it were Bernie vs Bush I think Bernie would have gotten the Trump treatment.

America basically has been ruled by the typical politicians for a long time now and people were indifferent towards Trump or just wanted to see how someone outside of Washington would do.

The indifference towards Trump doesn't exist anymore. Everyone takes him seriously now, they know he can win and they know the damage he can do if he does. That's why we're seeing this early voting enthusiasm.

I think even a scandal won't hurt Biden too much because no one is indifferent towards Trump.

 

how many people on the right does that really match? Wow Jay, this is a low for you. Common, rethink that. That is like me saying all of the left are antifa terrorists. You know deep down that this is simply not true.

Also Texas isn't in play... early voting is majority Republican and Republicans are traditionalists who usually vote in person on voting day. Highly doubt Biden picks up steam at this point with a huge scandal breathing down his neck. Yeehaw.

 

Dude, Trump was at a rally where they were chanting "LOCK HER UP!" to a Governor that did nothing wrong but get death threats and a kidnap attempt.

There was a poll that revealed close to 30% of America is either indifferent towards fascism or openly wanting it. THIS is Trump's base. I didn't say everyone on the right is like that. Not everyone on the right likes Trump, thankfully, but Trump's base? Yes, they are fans of fascism and wouldn't blink an eye if a Trump DOJ started jailing political opponents.

 

You are sensationalizing or have been fed some sensationalist garbage.

 

Really?



I'm sensationalizing though lol.

 

I don't an issue with anything you stated here. I did have an issue with using RCP avg of 2016 vs 2020 as evidence of how close this 2020 election is or how similar it is to 2016. If anything, the RCP avg tells the opposite story when considering context on the number of undecided. And If I take OH and GA into play (which the RCP avg for battlestates did not), among those two states, cumulatively, it was T +7 to now B +3.4, or a 10+ swing, or an avg of 5+ swing. 2020 is a very different race than 2016.

As for T not leaving or using the Court or other ways to stay, yes, he has pretty much stated he would do that. You can't model that and put a number on it. It's an unknown. But I would argue that that very fact is helping B - help his side to push up the score, go vote early and not relax.

 

Well if you think that Michigan residents are happy with the policies, which are legally questionable, don't warrant some anger, you're out of touch bro. You are reading too much into it to assume those people all want to engage in some lunatic plot. There are legal ways to lock up someone you think is a criminal. No one is chanting DEATH TO BLAH BLAH BLAH. Now how about I flip it and say those on the left, routinely chant death to cops and other groups they don't like at protests. They are fascists, the whole lot of them.

 

You do realize are debating one of those 30%.

 

I replied to this in another more relevant thread because I don't like derailing threads.

 

Lol, chuda might be. I tend to think of him as a Trump fan mostly though. My thing is, not all of his fans are indifferent or favoring fascism. Some of them are just right-wingers who want to win another election...how far these people would go to win that election though is the question.

 

The shy Trump voter was reflected in the 15% undecided voter its only 5% now.

There is also the shy Biden voter who just can't stand Trump but don't want to say it around Trumpers.

 

I disagree that it's fascism. That's an unsupported claim and has been debunked.

 

No one loses their job in certain industries for voting Biden. Key difference. When that phone call comes around, why risk your family's bread when you can lie? No one wants their name attached in certain industries because it's a ticket to a black list.

 

Why have Trump signs? Why use social media? There are plenty of Trump supporters doing both openly. There are definitely a few that are "shy" and afraid about losing a job or whatever.... there just haven't been much evidence of it. I can also make a similar (lack of evidence) argument for independent and for the left in certain industries in certain locations. But I also have not seen much of any evidence of it. MC did a study on this topic.

https://morningconsult.com/form/shy-trump-2020/

In our prior studies, we observed that differences between phone and online are larger among adults with higher levels of formal education and those with higher incomes. On education, we find limited evidence for this in the 2020 race. Among income levels, there is evidence of a mode effect. Trump receives lower support on the phone than online among those making $75,000 or more each year, whereas Biden receives lower support on the phone than online among households earning less than $35,000 annually.

However, differences between income groups did not reach statistical significance. When taken together, differences between subgroups did not change the overall finding that President Donald Trump lagged behind Joe Biden by 10 percentage points in both online and phone interviews.

 

That's a good point. Also there appears to be much fewer undecideds this election than 2016.

 

I have no idea why Trump supporters would lie about supporting him in a poll, unless they were deliberately trolling or did some phone survey in front of relatives(?) Seems like a stretch.