Biden leads Trump. So did Hillary Clinton. For Democrats, it’s a worrisome campaign deja vu

The fact that so many people are voting early says they want change. Bad for Trump.

 

I knew there would be one last hurrah for the 2016 all over again crowd.

Which swing states are these - the ones that she lost where the polling samples weren't very high quality?

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/black-americans-rush-to-polls-in-surge-of-emotion/

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...s-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/

Hillary was actually up 15 days out.

 

In 2016,

while Hillary’s lead was declining steadily, Trump was inching upward. Among senior voters, Trump enjoyed a > 10 pt lead.
​

in 2020,

While Biden’s lead has continued to widen, Trump popularity has been declining. Biden has flipped the seniors voters—-overtaking Trump—-and then widening the lead to >10​

 

Yes I found that surprising when RCP and people like Ari Melber where pointing out that in October 2016 in the battle ground states things looked remarkably similar and that even Biden was marginally underperforming Clinton.

 

Air Langhi already posted the link I was. Here is also Ari Melber pointing out some of the same things.


Biden's support is much broader than Clinton's and he has more routes to victory. I have no doubt that he will win the popular vote by a larger margin than Clinton will but given that even FiveThirtyEight notes that unless he wins the popular vote by at least 6% his odds of winning the EC still aren't good.

The closeness of the battleground states should be concerning and again margin of victory will matter a lot regarding how many shenanigans Trump's allies might pull regarding the voting, vote count, and certification.

 

Apples and Oranges. Two key differences among others are the # of undecided and Biden level of support. Double digit around this time 2016 vs single digit now (and for at least a month). Biden is 50%+ nationally and in a # of swing states. Clinton was around 45ish top.

https://bbs.clutchfans.net/index.php?threads/dedicated-poll-thread.306901/page-12#post-13168285

 

This.

Donald Trump is less popular than ever, but it doesn't matter if he is popular enough in places like Pennsylvania and Ohio and Florida.

The Trump goal all along has been the Electoral College. Right now they are spending money and attention in Nevada where they think they can win.

 

538 has T at around 28% to win in 2016. Right now, 538 has T at 12%. If the election is today, it would be around 5%. There is still time for T to close and that is taken into consideration in 538 projection.

 

Biden is not only likeable, he is a good man who had the very misfortune of burying too many of his children and wife.

I know the progressive wing of the party may not think so now, but against a race baiter ******* like Trump, he was the only acceptable candidate for this election cycle.

 

I fully agree the odds are much better for Biden than they are for Clinton and my self have changed my own view of the election since the Summer. That said it's still quite possible for Trump to thread the needle again.

Also we cannot discount things that could happen with voting, the count, and certification. FiveThirtyEight and others have said they can't really predict those thing even while we have a President already challenging the election and threatening to not leave. The closer this election is the more likely those things will happen and could make a difference.

 

Pennsylvania was notoriously poorly polled but anyway, Biden has more or less hovered around 50%+ since July - and comparatively fewer polls were conducted prior to then. Basically the more you polled PA, the more solid Biden looks, over 50 and up 5-10 points. That's an error proof lead. (3 points is the error from 2016)

Compare this to 2016. Clinton never broke 50%, there were far fewer polls, and she ranged from 1/2 point ahead to 9 points (the access hollywood tape, which happened almost exactly one year ago when that supposed big Clinton lead was cited - "changed" the polls from Clinton +2 to +9 overnight, but that was apparently mostly nonsresponse bias becasue they revered to +2 by election day)

Basically if you were looking to make the most misleading possible argument to make 2020 look like 2016, you would pick the exact numerical snapshot that was selected in the video. It's much better to be up 51-44 than 48-39.

This stuff has been explained ad nauseum about 2016 polling errors, education weighting and such, and I guess the one year anniversary of the Access Hollywood affair would be the last salvo of the 2016 alloveragainers.

It's 2020.

 

Lol at smelly trumpers thinking they have a chance. Biden is squeaky clean with no chance of losing.

 

538: 2016 final projection vs 2020 today. Italic were the big surprise of 2016.

TX - 94% T, 69% T
IO - 70% T, 58% T

OH - 65% T, 51% T
GA - 79% T, 51% B

NC - 55% C, 67% B
AR - 67% T, 68% B
FL - 55% C, 71% B

PA - 77% C, 88% B
WI - 84% C, 88% B
NV - 58% C, 87% B

MI - 79% C, 92% B
MN - 85% C, 93% B
CO - 78% C, 96% B
VI - 85% C, >99% B

 

Thats it in a nutshell anybody just looking at the percentage lead by Hillary are doing it wrong.

 

Turnout numbers in states with available data show a surge of Black participation in the first few days of in-person voting. In North Carolina, which began early voting Thursday, Black voters accounted for more than 30% of turnout on the first day – well above their 23% share overall in 2016. In Georgia, Black voters accounted for about 32% of mail ballots and in-person votes cast through Thursday, so far outpacing their overall share of the electorate in 2016.

The pattern is similar in U.S. cities with large Black populations. In the counties that include Milwaukee and Detroit, for instance, the roughly 283,000 in combined votes cast already is equivalent to nearly one-fourth of those counties’ total turnout four years ago. A drop-off in votes for Democrat Hillary Clinton in those cities in 2016 compared with Obama’s 2008 and 2012 vote tallies contributed to Trump’s overall victory after he carried Wisconsin and Michigan by tiny margins.

In Washington Post-ABC News national polls conducted in late September and early October, Biden led Trump by 92% to 8% among Black likely voters. Three Washington Post-ABC polls conducted since August found on average that 86% of registered Black voters are either certain to vote or have already voted, up slightly from 80% in 2016

 

@rocketsjudoka

Here is another view of RCP 2016 vs 2020 that put more context around it (undecided is a key difference)

Among Top Battlegrounds on 10/19 (FL, PA, MI, WI, NC, AR): T + 0.7

RCP 2020: B 49.2 vs T 45.1 (B +4.1) / Total: 94.3 -> undecided 4.7
RCP 2016: C 45.2 vs T 40 (C +5.2) / Total: 85.2 -> undecided 14.8

If all 4.7 undecided go for T, he would be at 49.8 and beat out B by 0.6. It's a chance, but much much smaller than 2016. In 2016, T needed ~60% of the undecided to squeeze by C.

Also, notice that GA and OH aren't part of that RCP "key battlegrounds". 538 has both of them at a tossup today.

 

There are 2 key factors missing.

- Hillary's Leader spiked sharply after 3rd debate (october 9) and
- Hillary lead dropped significantly after Comey's letter(october 28. 11 days before election)

These are unusual events. Similar sudden ups and downs happened multiple times with Hillary/Trump in 2016.

This time around the buildup or build down is steady

 

Hmm.... do you think people polled are more or less likely than in those days to admit to supporting Trump? That should scare them the most. They created this shame culture BS on a mountain of lies because they control the majority of the media. Now it's coming home to roost. Those entrenched on the left shout wolf wolf wolf and people are sick of it.