"That's an odd thing" reference what then? But if you didn't take 30s to read the few posts, then it makes sense that you don't have a clue.
Biden is winning Republican support for his $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan. Just not in Washington. Republican mayors, governors and voters nationwide are expressing support for the $350 billion in state and local aid contained in President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID stimulus package. Nearly 7 in 10 Americans in a Quinnipiac University poll released last Wednesday said they support President Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan.
I grew up around a lot of people who had clear memories of the Depression because they lived it. My parents and their friends did. My grandparents did. What we are experiencing now and for the last year has placed our country in danger of being in another Great Depression, except in our “advanced, high tech 21st Century,” where in the Developed World, we’re supposed to have largely moved past something like that happening again. I’m all for this bill and I think it’s outrageous that the Biden administration has to go through arcane machinations to get it passed. A large majority of the American people want it passed. Pass it.
I'm hearing a lot about K-shaped and W-shaped recoveries. It's good to be a tech worker right now as they're not going to be the 20% who suffered during the last Depression. Thing is... We are more urbanized and less likely to rough it out by growing our food and shoveling our own **** 6 ft under. There is no West Coast to colonize or reinvent yourself like the Grapes of Wrath. 40% of households earn less than 60k (this is without the "back breaking 15$/hr min wage"). Companies are heavily loaded with debt that will take an incredibly long time to delever if interest rates rise to 3-4% The jerbs those companies maintain is likely why the Fed enabled their half decade of bad behavior by guaranteeing all corporate junk debt immediately after last's March crash that rivaled 08 - the hidden bailout. Even if the checks arrive, better put in some stop loss trades after 3 or 4 months... The article below is rich. Banks have been the good soldiers compared to what they did in 08, but they've been pleading and complaining to Papa Fed for not being able to do what their corporate cousins are doing (leveraging debt for overhyped stock juicing buybacks and securitizing said debt for higher cash flow and more impressive financials...that juice the stock even more) and the lending market is dead cold because of the "poor returns" coming from the Fed's near Zero Interest Rate Policy. Fed's response to this is to "hypothesize" a bubble popping and asking whether they can survive it. https://www.ft.com/content/a262314b-f518-4e69-8db4-fa88b6729aab Fed to test banks’ ability to withstand 55% fall in equity prices The largest US banks will have to prove they can withstand the US stock market crashing by 55 per cent, regulators said on Friday, outlining the parameters for annual stress tests that decide how much banks can pay out to their shareholders. The striking scenario for a huge decline in equity prices comes as US and global stocks touched record highs earlier this week, fuelling fears of a bubble. The Federal Reserve laid out the terms of its annual exercise on Friday, which apply to the largest 19 banks led by JPMorgan Chase. It includes a sharper fall in economic output than the last scenario, which was used in a special test in September to assess banks’ resilience through the Covid-19 pandemic, but a lower peak in unemployment. The most adverse scenario — which simulates a 55 per cent shock to the Dow Jones Total Stock Market index by the third quarter of 2022 — is worse even than the “almost 50 per cent” decline tested in September. A sharp fall in equity prices would reduce the value of the trading assets banks hold. It would also have a knock-on effect as big swings in prices lead to higher capital requirements. The new stress test criteria include a 10.75 per cent peak in the US unemployment rate by the third quarter of 2022, compared with the 12.5 per cent jobless rate that was modelled in last year’s exercise. The US unemployment rate is at present 6.3 per cent. Economic output — as measured by gross domestic product — falls 4 per cent in the updated scenario, versus 3 per cent in September’s. “The scenarios are not forecasts and the severely adverse scenario is significantly more severe than most current baseline projections for the path of the US economy under the stress,” the Fed said. After the last stress tests, the Fed said banks could resume limited share buybacks in the first quarter, as long as they hit profit targets. The central bank has yet to give guidance on how much lenders can pay out in the second quarter. “The banking sector has provided critical support to the economic recovery over the past year. Although uncertainty remains, this stress test will give the public additional information to its resilience,” Randal Quarles, the Fed’s vice-chair for supervision, said in a statement. Some banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, have chafed at their inability to return more cash to shareholders given they have enjoyed record profits despite the pandemic.
Seriously? Is this a joke? Unreal, literally. Small businesses are going under all over the place, families are lining up to get “free food” while worrying about getting evicted and when they’ll be able to find work. Meanwhile the GOP, eager to give gigantic tax breaks to those that didn’t need them early on with trump, does what they can to prevent Biden from helping those who desperately need help. A vast majority of Americans support Biden doing just that, yet the Republican Party cares more about bizarre conspiracy theories and partisan politics than the American people.
Yes, it's why the market has been juiced since the March crash. Without the backstop and the several bailouts afterwards, we likely would've seen some (digital) breadlines and busts in the Brick and Mortar sector after it happened. Instead we got every stock shooting through the roof with historic all time highs during a global health crises that has crippled the economy two or three times over. https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/...tem-that-needs-bailout-every-10-years.307379/ More recent article https://bpi.com/the-fsocs-looming-challenge-un-ringing-a-very-large-bell/ That last article is why you don't hear the words "moral hazard" shouted again and again from blowhards at the CNBC trade floors like you did when our Black president attempted housing relief with TARP funds...the all time greatest narrative Bait-n-Switcheroo (blaming the victim as the problem) that birthed the Tea Party. We're in it right now. Everyone knows we're in it but can't wait to get their Doge before it rockets to a dollar. My unprofessional ****-stock trading advice is to ride the bubble for a few more months then cover your ass tightly. I can't time when it'll pop. Heck I was wrong when I thought it would goto **** last year. Now we know why.
@Invisible Fan if stimulus passes wouldn't the bubble get hugerer? There's also a need to separate the general economy which includes small businesses and listed stocks. Valuations are sky high, but the big/mega caps have been posting record top and bottomline beats. Despite this, their prices have been on pause the last few months as the market tries to hunt for value bargains among the small caps. You could argue that the fang bubble is smaller than it was a few months ago.
The bubble with get bigger in 3 months. Afterwards, who really knows? Fed can helicopter in and plug gaps in coordination with other banks. September is a month I pulled out of my butt because past disasters happening around that time. It's also when checks run out and there will be more concerns about rent forbearance and retail strength. The general view is that there's market optimism that's predicated upon covid recovery. I mean many places around me will reopen offices around July-August. People are expecting post-Spanish Flu Roaring 20s. Airlines and energy stocks will probably get a needed boost. A lot of my thinking comes from the weakness before covid when a correction was expected because of corporate buybacks affecting their debt load and credit worthiness. Instead, we're at all time highs because of zirp and zero risk in corporate loans. The cynic in me doesn't make me think things will unravel smoothly, but maybe the Biden admin is burning the midnight oil to head this off. In the meanwhile, I'm just saying don't get caught in another march situation and hedge yourself to lock in those gains. Might cost you 10-20% of future gains, but it's really up to you. My timing is ****.
Another sidenote...Ferntits broke AF from failing restaurants and entertainment debt, but he's taking his company public through a spac? Oh yeah...definitely ride the bubble. He's likely gonna make more money throughout all of this even if his restaurants and everything else he owns crashes down..
"The Non-Covid Spending Blowout": tl/dr version: "All told, this generous definition of Covid-related provisions tallies some $825 billion. The rest of the bill—more than $1 trillion—is a combination of bailouts for Democratic constituencies, expansions of progressive programs, pork, and unrelated policy changes." https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-non-covid-spending-blowout-11613937485?mod=trending_now_opn_sf_pos3 The Non-Covid Spending Blowout Most of the $1.9 trillion House bill has little to do with the virus. Here’s a breakdown. By The Editorial Board Updated Feb. 21, 2021 5:12 pm ET The Biden White House is pointing to polls showing that its $1.9 trillion spending bill is popular, and the press corps is cheering. Yet we wonder how much public support there’d be if Americans understood that most of the blowout is a list of longtime Democratic spending priorities flying under the false flag of Covid-19 relief. Let’s dig into the various House committee bills to separate the Covid from the chaff. The Covid cash includes some $75 billion for vaccinations, treatments, testing and medical supplies. There’s also $19 billion for “public health,” primarily for state health departments and community health centers. One might even count the $6 billion to the Indian Health Service, or $4 billion for mental health. The package also hands more to businesses and individuals most hit by lockdowns. That includes $7.2 billion more for the Paycheck Protection Program, $15 billion for economic injury disaster loans, $26 billion for restaurants, bars and live venues, and $15 billion in payroll support for airlines. The recipients of this taxpayer money will at least be required to prove economic harm, and in some cases repay loans. Not so the recipients of the $413 billion in checks Democrats intend to send to households far and wide, at $1,400 per man, woman and dependent, that begins phasing out at $75,000 of individual income. The Congressional Budget Office says the bill’s unemployment provisions will increase deficits by $246 billion, and that its $400 a week in federal “enhanced” unemployment benefits through August “could increase the unemployment rate as well as decrease labor force participation.” So much for economic stimulus. All told, this generous definition of Covid-related provisions tallies some $825 billion. The rest of the bill—more than $1 trillion—is a combination of bailouts for Democratic constituencies, expansions of progressive programs, pork, and unrelated policy changes. *** • Start with the $350 billion for state and local governments and cities and counties, even as state revenues have largely recovered since the spring. Democrats also changed the funding formula to ensure most of the dollars go to blue states that imposed strict economic lockdowns. Last year’s Cares Act distributed money mainly by state population, but much of the $220 billion for states in the new bill will be allocated based on average unemployment over the three-month period ending in December. Andrew Cuomo’s New York (8.2% unemployment in December) and Gavin Newsom’s California (9%) get rewarded for crushing their businesses, while Kristi Noem’s South Dakota (3%) is penalized for staying open. These windfalls come with few strings attached. • The bill includes $86 billion to rescue 185 or so multiemployer pension plans insured by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. Managed jointly by employer sponsors and unions, these plans are chronically underfunded due to lax federal standards and accounting rules. Yet the bailout comes with no real reform. • Elementary and secondary schools get another $129 billion, whether they reopen for classroom learning or not. Higher education gets $40 billion. The CBO notes that since Congress already provided some $113 billion for schools—and as “most of those funds remain to be spent”—it expects that 95% of this new money will be spent from 2022 through 2028. That is, when the pandemic is over. • Enormous sums go to expanding favorite Democratic programs. The package adds $35 billion to pump up subsidies to defray ObamaCare premiums. The bill eliminates the existing income cap (400% of the poverty level) on who qualifies for subsidies, and lowers the maximum amount participants are expected to contribute to about 8.5% of their income, down from 10%. The bill also spends $15 billion to provide a temporary five percentage-point increase in the federal Medicaid match to states that expand eligibility to lower-income adults. This is bait for the dozen or so states that have resisted ObamaCare’s Medicaid expansion, which enrolls working age, childless adults above the poverty line. The political goal overall is to chip away at private coverage on the way to Medicare for All. • There’s $39 billion for child care; $30 billion for public transit agencies; $19 billion in rental assistance; $10 billion in mortgage help; $4.5 billion for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance program; $3.5 billion for the program formerly known as food stamps; $1 billion for Head Start; $1.5 billion for Amtrak; $50 billion for the Federal Emergency Management Agency; $4 billion to pay off loans of “socially disadvantaged” farmers and ranchers; and nearly $1 billion in world food assistance. • Don’t forget the $15 an hour minimum wage, which CBO estimates will cost 1.4 million jobs. The bill increases the child tax credit to $3,000 from $2,000 ($99 billion) and temporarily expands the Earned Income Tax Credit to certain additional childless adults ($25 billion). It eliminates the cap on the rebate that drug makers must pay Medicaid for outpatient drugs. This is a rare provision that increases federal revenue ($16 billion), though only by undermining pharmaceutical innovation. • This being Congress, Members are also slipping in pet causes. Our favorite is $1.5 million for the Seaway International Bridge, which connects New York to Canada and is a priority for New York Sen. Chuck Schumer. And don’t overlook the nearly $500 million for, as the CBO puts it, “grants to fund activities related to the arts, humanities, libraries and museums, and Native American language preservation.” No wonder Democrats want to pass all this on a partisan vote. It’s a progressive blowout for the ages that does little for the economy but will finance Democratic interest groups for years. Please don’t call it Covid relief. Appeared in the February 22, 2021, print edition.
Really? Most of those so called non-Covid-related provisions are indeed Covid-related provisions. edit: Oh, it's from the WSJ editorial board. Makes sense now.
Here's our compromise, we offer something that is worse than the current state, in return you give up good/popular things POLITICO headline: COTTON/ROMNEY BIPARTISAN COMPROMISE DERAILED BY THE SQUAD
You're right don't know the purpose of the title but $15 minimum wage is going to permanently derail the covid bill and that's not a covid issue
You know what I think will derail the bill Those god damn socialist mooching f*rmers. Time to take away the tit and for them to have some ACCOUNTABILITY for their communities.
4 billion is insignificant. $15 minimum wage is. So you can be mad at farmers and Republicans and government aid for anti government conservatives and blah blah blah or you can address the issues holding up the bill
Honestly what's holding it up can't Biden just pass it with the split VP vote majority? Does the addition of $15 an hour require 60 votes?
